Week 5 Picks

We finally hit October and here in Alabama it is finally starting to feel like football weather. The weather gets cooler and the football games get better. Most of the teams in the SEC have played most of their allotment of creampuffs and now face a month of SEC contests. Except for South Carolina vs. South Carolina St every game on the schedule is a good one. Only Florida has a bye this week and it may be the luckiest bye week in history as Tim "Superman" Tebow finally gets hurt and Florida's next game is at LSU. I went 4-1 last week which puts me at 13-4 on the season for games against BCS opponents.

Auburn at Tennessee...
The picture for this post came from the fact that I feel like the last man on earth that doesn't believe Auburn is an unstoppable juggernaut. I pretty much laid it out in my last post and my Auburn ties in my initial post for those who might believe I am not a "true" Auburn fan. Like I said earlier this week, me, a "negative" fan, already thought and predicted we would go 4-0 before the season started. Therefore while our offense has been a great and unexpected surprise the wins were not. Finally we are to a game I thought we would lose before the season. A game on the road against an upper-echelon SEC opponent.

This will be Heisman candidate QB Chris Todd's first game in one of the larger SEC enemy outposts. I am finally to the point where I can't stomach reading much less writing another glowing analysis of our offense. Please hit any of the links to the right and you will find as much of that as you can stand. Again I am not being a "hater" but I can only stand so much of that before we actually beat a big SEC team on the road. War Blog Eagle writes today that only Auburn fans who went through last year can understand why Gus Malzahn is such a genius. I went through last year and anybody who doubts my suffering from last year needs to talk to my wife. I do think Malzahn is a genius but I still have my doubts about this Auburn team and Heisman candidate Chris Todd. I definitely appear to be the last person that does though.

But hey maybe I am a "hater", maybe I am negative, maybe I am the last one on board, maybe this game will prove me wrong. I will definitely concede to being 1/6th wrong about the season if we win this one. I do think the match up of Malzahn vs. Kiffin the Elder is one of the most interesting matchups of the season. Can Auburn score 30 points on the Tennessee D? Auburn has won 53 consecutive games when scoring 30 or more points in a game, dating back to a 56-49, four-overtime loss to Georgia in 1996 (I was at that game, yeeesch). Thirty points seems to be the benchmark. If you read everyone else but me the answer to that question seems to be a resounding YES.

On the other hand you have the beleaguered UT offense vs. the on-again/off-again Auburn defense. This is where the game seemingly goes to Auburn as Jonathan Crompton is the worst QB in the SEC right now. I heard there are UT fans who consider Crompton UT's worst QB ever and possibly the worst SEC QB ever. I don't think he has dropped that low but he has been a big liability. However UT can hide him some using their more traditional offense. You have to believe Auburn will be able to snag a turnover or two looking at Crompton's past history and that being the Auburn defense's strong point. On the flip side though you have to think UT will be able to pull off a few big plays as well. Crompton will have one of his best chances to complete a pass or two when Auburn goes to their super soft zone. Can UT score 30 points? I don't think so but I do think they will get 20 or more.

So we are back to Auburn's offense. I hope to be proven wrong but until I see it I still can't believe it. I think the Auburn offense and especially Auburn QB Chris Todd will have their first tough outing against UT's defense. Conversely I think UT will be able to score just enough. If I am proven wrong I guess I will have to get on the bandwagon but until then...
TENNESSEE OVER AUBURN

LSU at Georgia...
LSU comes in undefeated but definitely looks like the weaker team. QB Jordan Jefferson has yet to have that breakthrough game and the defense led by DC John Chavis has disappointed. Meanwhile Georgia while having several weaknesses including their defense has rebounded from their season opening loss to Oklahoma St to win 3 solid games. I think the Georgia offense will be the best unit on the field and I don't see them losing this one at home.
GEORGIA OVER LSU

Ole Miss at Vandy...
Ole Miss tries to right their season after being the media's whipping boy because of their disappointing flop against South Carolina. Despite that game I think Ole Miss still has more playmakers on offense and defense than Vandy. It might not be pretty but I think the Mrs gets it done.
OLE MISS OVER VANDY

Bama at Kentucky...
This pains me to say but right now Bama will be heavily favored against the rest of the teams on their schedule. With Bama's offense playing well there are just not many teams that can score enough on their defense to have a shot. Certainly not Kentucky who got taken to the woodshed by Florida last week.
BAMA OVER KENTUCKY

Georgia Tech at Miss St...
This game is a lot more interesting than I thought it would be when the season started. Miss St is showing real life and real grit under new coach Dan Mullen. They regrouped after the Auburn debacle and beat Vandy on the road and had a win over LSU in their grasp. It doesn't appear yet that this group is ready to pack it in so Tech better expect a tough game. Meanwhile defenses are starting to catch up with Paul Johnson. The coaches and defenses in the top conferences are too good to be a one-trick pony. Johnson and Tech must find a way to integrate more passing into Johnson's triple-option attack. I am going to go with Tech but I think this will be a close one.
GEORGIA TECH OVER MISS ST

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (in Dallas)
Texas A&M comes in undefeated after playing absolutely nobody. Arkansas comes in after two tough losses to Georgia and Bama. I don't think Texas A&M has the defense like Bama to shut Arkansas down and I don't think Texas A&M has the offense like Georgia to outscore them. I am going with Arkansas in an absolute must-win game for the Razorbacks. Even though it is out-of-conference they need this win bad to get back on track and pull out a decent season.
ARKANSAS OVER TEXAS A&M

Finally I think South Carolina will be able to take care of South Carolina St. Check back Sunday for Auburn/UT reax. I am really looking forward to this game. We should know a lot more about Auburn after this one.