Saturday, February 28, 2015

2015 State of the Program

First, my standard intro to this post...  "It has become standard here at STR to do a "State of the Program" post following national signing day.  The national "state of the union" is always around this time as well and it just seems like the perfect time to do it for a college football team. It is the end of a complete cycle of college football starting with spring practice through the regular season and then the all important recruiting season. You really have a good pretty good feel as to where the program is since most big fans have been into it almost daily for six months. You have seen your team play an entire season and know the latest batch of recruits coming in."

Last year, other than not finishing against Florida State, everything was going Auburn's way.  When the dust cleared after the national championship disappointment, Auburn had put together maybe the most incredible comeback season in college football history going from 0-8 to SEC champs.  Along the way the Tigers won games over their biggest rivals on maybe the two most unbelievable magnificent plays in Auburn history.  The win in the Iron Bowl over #1 Bama to win the West was one of the greatest games in Auburn football history.  

There were still some clouds out there as I documented in this post last year beginning with Jay Jacob's foolhardy mistake of letting the SEC put Georgia and Bama on the same home and away rotation.  I thought last year's team might survive it but it bit Auburn even earlier than I thought.  It will continue to hurt Auburn for many years to come.  The eight game conference schedule with 14 teams will continue to help or hurt as well. It happened with 12 teams but with two more it has become much more pronounced.  It is all about who you have to play from the other division.  

It has helped Bama immensely getting that easy win against the Vols the last few years while Georgia has been a huge thorn in Auburn's side.  It has also helped the Bulldogs get to Atlanta several times the last few years.  While Texas A&M and Missouri have been successful since joining the SEC, overall I think the addition was a bad move and continues to hurt in less visible ways like football scheduling.  Fourteen teams just does not work well and it does not look like there will be two more great programs available anytime soon to make it sixteen.  

Auburn will benefit some next year, maybe, from the scheduling.  Kentucky rolls onto the schedule as Auburn's rotating East opponent.  The Wildcats were much improved but still one of the weaker teams in the conference.  The only thing that would have made expansion a positive for Auburn would have been moving to the East.  It is Jay Jacob's biggest missed opportunity.  Auburn could be back in the East with all of Auburn's traditional rivals in Florida, Georgia and Tennessee and not stuck with the Mississippi schools and ex-Big 12 teams.  However that is a discussion for another day.  

The scheduling problems will remain one of the biggest factors on whether Auburn has a chance at a conference title every year.  I am most definitely for a nine game schedule to alleviate this problem and getting Bama and Georgia out of this same rotation.  Until then you will see this same commentary from me in this space every year...

Back to my initial point and the spring of a year ago... Auburn as Gus Malzahn would say after every game in 2013 was going "up, up, UP!".  Unfortunately what goes up must come down and Auburn did in a big way.  I think just about everyone knows this principle but did not figure Auburn would come down in 2014 with so many good players returning.  Auburn had a ton of senior starters on both sides of the ball including a senior quarterback.  That usually means good things are going to happen however a lack of leadership even with all those seniors and some bad coaching did the Tigers in.  Auburn finished 8-5 and just 4-4 in the SEC.

The cracks started appearing over the summer as senior quarterback Nick Marshall and senior defensive back Jonathan Mincy were both arrested on drug charges.  I think Auburn's chances at a championship were probably finished right there.  If not they definitely were when another senior, safety Jermaine Whitehead, got into an altercation with a coach and then was suspended for most of the season.  Three seniors, three stupid choices.  When your senior impact players are doing dumb stuff like this you know deep down this will not be a great team and I think we all knew it.

Those were the symptoms, the lack of leadership was the problem.  Marshall was a playmaker but not a leader.  Tre Mason and Jay Prosch lead the way in 2013 alleviating the problem with Marshall but there was no one to help in 2014.  I do not think Auburn had much leadership on defense either but it would not have mattered with talent missing at important spots and horrendous coaching.  Elite pass rusher Dee Ford and lockdown cornerback Chris Davis were able to make Ellis Johnson's 2013 defense just adequate.  The defense crumbled and finally completely collapsed in 2014 without that kind of talent at those positions.  

The horrible coaching on defense was evident down the stretch and I credit Malzahn for addressing it immediately following the Iron Bowl.  As I wrote after that game, I did not think he would do it but he did and followed it up with grabbing the best possible coach available.  As I wrote in the bowl game review: "It was a huge win to bring in Will Muschamp.  I have recited many times that the last time Auburn had a good defense was Muschamp's last year at Auburn.  However unless Muschamp and the other Auburn coaches can break Bama's recruiting stranglehold on the majority of the region's best defensive players I am not sure how big a difference Muschamp can make.  In Muschamp's first tour as defensive coordinator he had access to many more good defensive players with Tuberville being a defensive coach and recruiting against Mike Shula.  Things have changed drastically since then as Bama scoops up nearly every great defensive player in the state.  Auburn simply has to get more good players on defense..."

That brings us to this years recruiting haul.  On offense Auburn did another great job grabbing five offensive lineman and grabbing them before it is a critical need.  I, for one, have been screaming about this for years and it is nice to see the Tigers get some good prospects in the pipeline before it is a critical need.  The only negative is one or two of these guys really needed to be defensive linemen.  The coaches also brought in a good fullback and tight end to bolster those positions.  Unfortunately though they were a little late on this and these guys will be under the gun to contribute immediately.

They say the fullback position is about dead due to all these shotgun formation offenses but not in Gus Malzahn's offense.  I wrote several times how underrated and important Eric Smith was in 2010 and then everyone saw how important Jay Prosch was in 2013.  A good fullback blocker is essential to the Malzahn offense and we all saw this season that a great tight end does not translate to a good fullback.  Senior Brandon Fulse was less than stellar at the H-back spot and it showed.  Malzahn needs that fullback blocker and hopefully Chandler Cox can fill that role for a few years.

Auburn usually is overloaded with useless wide receivers but this year only brought in two, Darius Slayton and Ryan Davis, and both look pretty good.  It is also always good to bring in a decent quarterback recruit just in case and Auburn checked that box this year with Tyler Queen.  That brings us to the best part of this year's class on offense and that is running back.  Auburn grabbed two of the best in the country in JUCO Jovon Robinson and Alabama "Mr. Football" Kerryon Johnson.  You add these two guys to last years "Mr. Football" Roc Thomas and veteran Peyton Barber and Auburn should continue to have a great running attack.  

Turning back to defense, I think Auburn did a good job everywhere but defensive line which was the biggest need in my opinion coming into this recruiting season.  Auburn definitely got a great player in Byron Cowart but in my opinion wasted a scholarship on Price Tega Wanogho Jr. who just took up football and suffered a major injury.  I will be surprised if he ever plays a down in an SEC game.  The coaches then brought in a couple of decent recruits in JUCO Maurice Swain and Jauntavius Johnson but that is it.  Auburn has not had much luck over the years bringing in instant impact JUCO lineman and I bet Johnson ends up redshirting so basically Cowart is it for next year.

Auburn lost four seniors that played regularly on the defensive line and that was not a huge loss since they were not very good however unless some unknowns really step up Auburn does not have much depth to replace them.  Right now the starters look to be Carl Lawson, DaVonte Lambert, Elijah Daniel and Montravius Adams.  The only experienced depth looks to be Gimel President.  Coach Rodney Garner's work looks to be cut out for him especially if there are any injuries.  All we have other than these guys is Cowart and a lot of inexperienced unknowns.  Auburn needed to bring in at least two or three more recruits on the defensive line.  This position looks to be by far Auburn's biggest trouble spot come next fall.

On the plus side, for the first time since Nick $aban arrived in Tuscaloosa, Auburn appears to have signed a great linebacker class led by Jeffery Holland followed by Darrell Williams, Richard McBryde and Montavious Atkinson.  Auburn needed this bad.  Kudos to Coach Muschamp for immediately making a huge impact with Cowart and Holland.  As I said above, as much as Auburn needs good coaching on defense they need good players.  These guys could make a huge difference down the road.  It is hard to remember the last time Auburn had great linebackers.

Finally Auburn also brought in some good talent for the defensive backfield to mix in with some good potential already on campus.  Safeties Tim Irvin and Jordan Colbert look really good and Auburn stole Carlton Davis from Ohio State.  Like offensive line, I am glad the coaches got some good talent in the pipeline before the alarm bells start going off.  Rounding out the class is athlete Jason Smith and punter Ian Shannon.  I think the sooner the coaches get Jason Smith away from quarterback and into a position he can actually contribute the better.

To finish up on the offensive side of the ball, the coaching has to be a lot better this next year.  While the defense grabbed all the attention, the offensive coaching was not much better considering the talent they had to work with.  As I said all season and will continue to say, Coach Malzahn must make some changes.  He stubbornly continued to try and run the ball even when it was clearly not working and refused many times to just call a straight pass in critical situations.  Everyone expects this to change with Jeremy Johnson hopefully taking over at quarterback (after we have to suffer through the coaches creating a "race"for the position in the spring to put pressure on him).  However I am not convinced yet things will change.

Overall the state of the program is good but lets not gloss over the fact that 2014 was not a good season and the coaches did not do a good job.  Bringing in Will Muschamp is a great thing but will probably be a fairly short term solution.  Gus Malzahn has to continue to build his foundation at Auburn.  He has good coaches and good players in place and that is where it all starts but Auburn is still in the toughest division in college football and their in-state rival is still at an all-time high so any mistakes can hurt badly.  

The 2015 season will be critical after the disappointing 2014 season and it being one of the now so important years where Auburn gets Georgia and Bama at home.  Auburn pretty much does not have much of a chance in even years anymore having to play those two on the road at the end of the year.  Odd years are now THE years for Auburn.  Couple that with Kentucky rolling in as the other East opponent and every team in the West but State starting over at quarterback and Auburn must capitalize on this opportunity.