Week 9 Picks

Yep, another week of picks and another late post by yours truly. I am probably going to have to do a more abbreviated version of the picks each week. Life, work and three kids make it tough at times to get a good long post out. Back in the day doing really good analytical picks was my thing but now there are obviously a LOT more people doing it with a LOT more time on their hands than I do. My main focus for this blog is commentary anyway regardless of it's perceived worth. For really good Auburn game previews you can go to WarBlogEagle or Track'em. However I still like to weigh in on the games each week. Last week I went 5-0 in games against BCS competition to go 29-8 for the season.

Ole Miss at Auburn - "The Navy Nightmare"
Yes it is finally here, "The Navy Nightmare" as dubbed by our beloved current AD Jay Jacobs. It should be quite a day on the plains. Three bad games in a row, the good ol' 11:30 kickoff and the chance of rain at 100%. I want to give some big props to the Auburn fans who travel a long way for this one. This one is pretty easy to break down. I can't really think of any reason Auburn would have a chance in this game except one. The one chance is this is Ole Miss. They have a pretty good football team but I don't think this would be an upset for the ages.

Other than that though it doesn't look too good. I think I have covered the Chris Todd factor the last two weeks. Once again, if he can get lucky and hit a few down field passes, our offense will show some life. If he does not then we will look like the last 3 weeks. Ole Miss has a pretty good defense so I don't think we will run all over them. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss has looked better in recent weeks with Dexter McCluster stepping to the forefront. Jevan Snead has also played better of late. Also for those paying attention the Auburn game is when Ole Miss really caught fire last year (and for the record Kodi Burns had 300 yards passing against the Rebels last year). I expect the Auburn defense to play hard and look good at times but unfortunately I also expect them to give up some big plays.

There is no way around it that I see... OLE MISS OVER AUBURN

Georgia at Florida (in Jacksonville, FL)
Once a season you have to go WAY out on a limb and pick the upset of the year. I don't think Tim Tebow will let it happen but Florida has looked ripe for an upset and barely avoided one for weeks. Meanwhile, everyone has completely given up on Georgia. They definitely have their warts but they still have a lot of good players on both sides of the ball and they have played a tough schedule. It is a long shot (and given the way Florida will get a couple of absolutely gift calls it is probably even longer) but I will go with the upset today...
GEORGIA OVER FLORIDA

Elsewhere I will go with...
TENNESSEE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
MISS ST OVER KENTUCKY
GEORGIA TECH OVER VANDY
LSU OVER TULANE
ARKANSAS OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN

BAMA IS OPEN THIS WEEK

Week 8 Review - HOPELESS

Complete utter hopelessness. That is pretty much where I am at. First, Bama and their legion of new bandwagon fans are just about to get their hearts ripped out and their season completely destroyed and freaking Tennessee can't get a stupid field goal in the air. That would have made this whole awful Auburn season a little easier to take. I mean for Tennessee to be able to almost get pass Bama and another crew of SEC officials obviously trying to make sure Bama and Florida stay undefeated was unbelievable. Great Kiffin quote today on that after he is scolded by the SEC again...

"Kiffin also said he decided to let the clock run down instead of trying to run another play before the kick because he was concerned about the officiating.
"You run another play and you throw an interception or they throw another flag on us -- I wasn't going to let the refs lose the game for us there and some magical flag appear..."

So good. Elsewhere I think you have to tip your cap to Miss State coach Dan Mullen for the job he is doing over there. State is coming to play every game. I mean you are really seeing a difference in this team after the Auburn game. Right now though I would pick State in a rematch. After all the hubbub over Gene Chizik and Lane Kiffin, I think Dan Mullen maybe doing the best job although Kiffin is rising and Chizik is falling.

That of course leads us to the absolute train wreck that occurred on the bayou on Saturday night. I am not sure where to go this week. I don't know how many times I can say the same thing. I see everyone trying to spread the blame but COME ON. My gosh when you have 16 yards passing at halftime and 47 for the game YOU HAVE A QB PROBLEM. Yes Malzahn is not doing a great job, yes our inexperienced wide receivers are having a hard time getting open, yes our offensive line is not exactly a wall BUT AGAIN WHEN YOU HAVE 16 YARDS PASSING AT HALFTIME AND 47 FOR THE GAME THEN YOU THE QB ARE THE PROBLEM.

For the millionth time... CHRIS TODD SUCKS. CHRIS TODD SUCKED AT TEXAS TECH, CHRIS TODD SUCKED IN JUCO, CHRIS TODD SUCKED LAST YEAR AND FINALLY CHRIS TODD HAS SUCKED THIS YEAR AGAINST ANY DECENT DEFENSE (I am going to assume the entire Tennessee defense was out drinking late for any success he had against them). WHY IN THE WORLD HAS THIS GUY STARTED THE MAJORITY OF AUBURN'S GAMES THE LAST TWO YEARS???!!!???

I started this blog early in August FOR THIS VERY REASON:

"What has brought me out of retirement? Well I must first say that the proliferation of so many blogs has had me stirred up for awhile but what finally pushed me over the edge is all of the sunshine pumpers. I could barely take it during the Tuberville years but the current deification of Gene Chizik and Chris Todd is simply more than I can take...".

THIS BLOGGER DID NOT LOSE HIS OBJECTIVITY THIS SEASON LIKE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE ELSE I READ DID. Just look at the posts here. I mean the only the only time I grudgingly said I was a little wrong about Todd was after the Tennessee game. I thought it was completely ridiculous to go off the deep end on this team when we had not played any of the better SEC teams. So far the only difference between this year and last is more offense against the lesser teams and beating West Viriginia (and do you think we would have beat them with Pat White?). The jig is up now and the offense looks just like last year against the better SEC teams.

Gene Chizik said this about the QB situation last night: ""We'll look at everything," Chizik said when asked about Todd. " (Possibly replacing Todd) is the natural question everybody is going to raise. "It was the whole offensive (unit), whether it was protection, running the football, throwing the football." Chizik also pointed to the Tigers' 42 yards in the first half and said, "You can't pin that on one guy. We're going to re-evaluate everything."

Uh sorry coach but you can most certainly pin that on one guy. Todd had time enough to make the play on most of those sacks. He threw an interception and fumbled. He is indecisive and slow. Our whole offensive game plans for most of the season were obviously made trying to protect him. It is so ridiculous. Either you can do the job or not. ONCE AGAIN JUST LIKE EVERY SINGLE FREAKING DAY SINCE HE CAME TO AUBURN YOU WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO CONVINCE ME ONE OF THE OTHER GUYS COULD NOT DO BETTER THAN THIS. But of course just like Kodi last year that guy won't get all the preseason work and all the work against the easier teams as Todd has already wasted that.

To top that quote off we get the word late Sunday that Chizik has declared that Todd will be the starter this week against Ole Miss (??????!!!!!!???????) This is a good time to say that this is a rant on my frustration with Chris Todd's play on the football field. It is also a good time to say it is not his fault that he is out there. By all accounts he is a nice guy and so on. IT IS THE FAULT OF OUR COACHES AND THEIR EGOS THAT HE IS OUT THERE. A friend of mine said it better than me so let me quote him:

"I tell you dude, this is going to be just like it was with Franklin. these guys are either too stubborn to admit they were wrong by making a change or they're afraid that the result of making a change would complicate their future plans ('09 and '10). in other words, its more about self-interests than the best interest of the team. there is just no other explanation for naming Todd the starter the afternoon after.... its appears that Todd could literally take the snap, hand the ball to a defender and block for the guy down field as he races towards the end zone and these stubborn jack-a$$es would refuse to make a change."

Absolutely dead on right. I think this IS a major factor in our coaches' decision making. All I can say is shame on them and say that doing stuff like that will come back to haunt you. I think there is evidence to support this accusation in the game itself. It was obvious after the first possession of the second half that the coaches were not coming back out to seriously win the game. We were mostly running the ball. It went downhill after that and as the 3rd quarter was ending LSU went up 31-3. It was obviously over and even if Todd was a great starter it would have been time to let the backup get in WAY BEFORE only two minutes were left in the game. However our coaches would not put Caudle in. What if he looked good for an entire quarter? That would mess up their plans and take the control for a decision out of their hands. Crazy you say? I don't think so. It is obviously a factor when a QB lays three big eggs in a row and a staff will not even take a look at the next guy. I use the "three strike" rule a lot in life and our coaches should most certainly use it here. STRIKE THREE CHRIS TODD SHOULD BE OUT!!!

This does not bode well for Chizik and Malzahn. A lot of this season is short term and as painful and frustrating as it is it will not determine this coaching staff's long term fate. As told to us ad nauseum many great coaches have a tough first year. I would also say there are a lot of bad coaches that have a tough first year and it doesn't get much better after that as well. We can go 6-6 and it will not effect us long term. However if these coaches stick with Chris Todd and get absolutely embarrassed like Saturday in our final three SEC games then YES I think that could hurt recruiting and hurt this staff long term.

I just do not understand it. A QB IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION ON THE FIELD. A good team must have a QB who can throw down the field. AGAIN, it does not appear Todd can do that consistently or hardly at all. Even with our early season success he was not throwing down field that much. Good night EVEN CHIZIK is saying it this week! Malzahn (and the entire Auburn nation) said it last week. I think everyone in the world knows we can't throw down field at this point yet he is still the starter!!!???!!!. Here is a Chizik's quote and then one from Will Collier:

"Biggest difference in offense right now in Chizik's estimation: down field passing game. "Sheer numbers will tell you that's been an area the last couple weeks that we certainly need to improve on, whatever we need to do," he said." (REALLY COACH???????? YET TODD IS STILL YOUR GUY???)

"Chris Todd was either injured against Tennessee (and I strongly suspect that to be the case), or he's simply lost his mojo. Either way, Todd can no longer make the throws he was nailing for the first four and a half games, and by now everybody Auburn plays knows it. With the long threat gone, defenses can just stuff the run early and tee off on Todd late. All the misdirection in the world doesn't do you any good when the defense knows you're limited to the first 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. The safeties can just stay home and the defensive line can pin its ears back and go after you."

There you have it. Again, the rest of the offense needs to play better and yes our defense is dreadful but does it really matter if we do not have a QB? Yet with all that said, we are going to send Todd out for strike FOUR this Saturday. That leads me to feel COMPLETELY HOPELESS.

Week 8 Picks

I guess I would have been fired in the actual newspaper business. I had just about finished my picks and everything got crazy on Friday night and the fam had to head to B'ham for a soccer doubleheader on Saturday and I FORGOT to publish this post... So for posterity here were my picks on the games played yesterday. All I can do is promise that these were the picks I made before they were played and were any of these really hard picks? Last week I went 3-1 in games against BCS competition and am now at 24-8 overall.

Auburn at LSU

As Jay at Track'em points out there has not been much buildup to this year's game. As he says both fanbases are a bit down and not too confident in their teams.Where do you start with this one? I guess we can start with the offenses. For my take on Auburn's offense see the last two previous posts. Basically, Chris Todd has to hit a few passes down the field to open up things for Auburn. Otherwise it will be another long night. Auburn's success on offense as it does with most spread teams completely depends on Chris Todd making plays. It is as simple as that.

Obviously the OL has to play half decent and the receivers have to catch but otherwise it is on Todd. One thing Auburn can count on is the SEC's leading rusher Ben Tate will run hard. I have also done quite a bit on LSU's offense in my last two posts. They basically have to lessen QB Jordan Jefferson's role and get their big strong running backs into the game. LSU's defense which was surprisingly bad at the first of the season has been better the last two weeks again Georgia and Florida. It is obviously taking some time for LSU to adjust to defensive coordinator John Chavis' approach. Fortunately for them and him Arkansas and Kentucky have given them the blueprint on how to defend Auburn and LSU has better talent to execute that plan.

Meanwhile Auburn kicked another player, backup CB Harry Adams, off the team leaving Auburn's secondary looking like their linebacker corps.The Auburn defense doesn't have a whole lot of great players, no depth and have not played well. Tommy Tuberville and his "legendary laziness" is too blame for the first two things while Gene Chizik and Ted Roof are to blame for the last one. So it is the underperforming LSU offense vs. the underperforming Auburn defense.

The Auburn nation has really tried to rally this week. However the facts are cold and hard. I really can't find any reasons to pick Auburn in this game. Here is what we are looking at:

1. The LSU offense has underperformed however they have a lot of goodplayers and can breakout. The same cannot be said of the Auburn defense.

2. The Auburn offense should be better than last week but LSU has that blueprint from the last two weeks and again a lot of good players.

3. LSU has had a week off to rest and get ready for this game.

4. LSU is at home at night. While that whole deal is much overrated ithas been true more times than not against Auburn. Unfortunately it looks like the angst on the plains will increase afterthis one...

LSU OVER AUBURN

Elsewhere...

BAMA OVER TENNESSEE

FLORIDA OVER MISS ST

OLE MISS OVER ARKANSAS

SOUTH CAROLINA OVER VANDY

KENTUCKY OVER LA MONROE

GEORGIA IS OPEN.

Proof Positive...

that us fans and humble bloggers are not as stupid or ignorant as we are always accused of being. We know we are not as knowledgeable as the coaches and we are always made out as the bad guys. I know I am not a football expert however I have watched it for over 30 years and I think I also have a good dose of common sense. I combine those two and try to make a few somewhat insightful observations either talking to someone or writing in this blog. However sometimes you start to wonder if you are just the idiot fan that everyone makes us out to be. At those times it feels good to write something one day and hear a coach say it the next.

I wrote this yesterday:
"However when the smoke and mirrors fade you simply have to be able to throw down field. We won't win another game this season other than Furman with out it. If by some miracle Todd can find those receivers and hit some passes down field we will do some damage on offense. If he does not the question will only be how bad will it get... "

I read this morning Gus Malzahn said this yesterday:
"We had some opportunities, and it's a fine line when you're playing good defenses. It's a fine line and you've got to be successful and hit a couple of those shots down the field to open everything else up."

Thanks coach. It probably won't make any difference since we will keep trotting Chris Todd out there but maybe one day, maybe next season, maybe someday Auburn will again add the deep pass as a consistent part of it's arsenal. It has been a staple of every good Auburn team since we moved away from the wishbone. There was Burger to Tillman, Slack to Wright, White and Nix to Sanders, Craig to Bailey, Campbell to Aromashodu, etc...

On that topic, I am again incredulous at the number of people who keep asking "how could we be so good early in the season and not now?". Come on folks, again it is pretty obvious. First no one knew what Malzahn's offense would exactly be like at Auburn in the SEC. Second, we played La Tech, Miss St, West Virginia and Ball St (!!!). West Virginia is a good team but certainly not a SEC-caliber defensive team. Todd and the offense have declined each week once we hit the SEC schedule outside Miss St with UT, Arkansas and Kentucky. The only mystery I think anybody should be wondering about is how the heck UT and Monte Kiffin didn't do a better job against Todd than Arkansas and UK???

Predictably, people are trying to rally some optimism and hope for this weekend. However I see no solid reason to expect our offense is going to be any better. Instead of playing Kentucky at home Auburn is going to Baton Rouge at night to play a better LSU team. This is going to help Chris Todd and the offense how??? Yes LSU is overrated and ranked too high but they have more good football players than Auburn or Kentucky.

My only reason for optimism so far is LSU OC Gary Crowton. As I wrote previously he continues to waste his very good RBs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams especially Scott. This guy is a monster. I think both of these guys will be playing on Sundays. Yet Crowton is another OC in love with the shotgun and continues to run it even when his team would be better off out of a more pro-style I-formation. Last year's Auburn/LSU game is a perfect example. Several times LSU would come out in first down with the "I" and give it to Scott, he would then run for 6 to 8 yards. LSU would then go to the shotgun and we would stuff them for negative yardage putting them back to like 3rd and 6. It happened more than once. So... if Crowton helps us out and Chris Todd can luck up and complete a few passes over 10 yards down the field maybe Auburn might have a chance.

I have heard rumors this week of one Mr. Rollison getting some snaps with the first team. Probably just false rumors but interesting to think about nonetheless. Obviously the coaches are going with Todd this weekend. You can't drop a new QB into a night game at Tiger Stadium so it is Todd or bust this Saturday outside of a REAL injury situation. However if Todd serves up strike #3 and is bad again this weekend (which is more likely than not) I think the coaches are really going to have to look at their options. I think the mrs still has more good football players than we do but a home game against them and Furman the next week is our last chance to put in a new QB.

Malzahn has stated that Neil Caudle is the real backup and he will be the guy if Todd can't go... but of course we heard the same thing about Blake Field before we threw Burns out there in 2007. So you have Caudle who did not impress earlier this year throwing an absolute horrible interception his first time out. Burns is Mr. Wildcat and Rollison is a true freshman. Who would the coaches go to? Let's see what happens this weekend first but it will be something interesting to keep in mind.

Week 7 Review - Apocalypse Now Redux

Usually here I give a brief review of the rest of the SEC before delving into Auburn. However the only interesting thing in the SEC besides Auburn's meltdown was Florida's near collapse. Unfortunately I did not see the game. I have read about it and can only say from experience that when a good team starts barely avoiding a loss every week it is usually an indicator that something is wrong. Right now, it appears Florida could get knocked off any week and would right now be an underdog to Bama in the SECCG. As I have written here before Percy Harvin is one of the most underrated players in SEC history. The guy may not have been as good as Tebow but he was definitely in the neighborhood and he was almost as big a reason why Florida was so successful. They were able to get by without him in the SECCG last year but now they are missing him badly. Now let us move to reviewing Auburn's Apocalypse Now Redux (2008 was the first Apocalypse and now 2009 is...) that occurred Saturday night against Kentucky.

Well I am certainly not happy about Auburn's predicament as I have lived and died with my Tigers for 30 years. However I do feel vindicated as this blog is one of the only blogs who did not go off the deep end and maintained some level of objectivity during Auburn's fast start (against an easy schedule). Now other than predicting Auburn would lose to UT instead of Kentucky my preseason predictions are right on and I believe they will continue to be as Auburn begins the agonizing drop to 6-6. While many of the other Auburn blogs are much better written and informed they simply lost objectivity. It was obvious that this Auburn team was not going to be one of those underrated teams that has a great season. We simply do not have enough good football players.

I have talked a lot about this game the last couple of days and wondered exactly how to write it out. Will Collier does the best job I have seen so far so I will sort of use his post as a foundation to start mine on so please read his excellent post reviewing the game. It is aptly named "Bad To Worse". Again I feel good because he starts out pointing out the horrible shape talent-wise the program was left in and how we realize it more and more each week. I pointed this same thing out one week ago in my Week 6 Review. He correctly compares it to the end of the Bowden era and all the people who continued to defend him while it was evident to anyone who knew anything about football that recruiting had literally come to standstill. The 1998 recruiting class by Bowden still stands as the worst non-NCAA recruiting class in NCAA history IMO. While Tub did not fall off a cliff like Bowden, he did steadily drop off and now we are left with a program that is going to take years to fix.

In my opinion the cancer of Jetgate never really went away and it slowly ate away at the program even while the team was successful on the field. Auburn did recruit some great kids after Jetgate but they got fewer and fewer each year. The lack of players is right now most evident on defense as Collier states. However once again War Blog Eagle points out the impending disaster on the OL: "I have made this point once before, but just to recap, in 2011 Auburn is going to be looking at an offensive line two-deep chosen entirely from a pool of A.J. Greene, Jared Cooper, Vance Smith, Andre Harris, John Sullen, the 2011 true freshmen, and whichever linemen Auburn signs in this 2010 class." Absolutely outstanding point and one that most people are missing. The post that he links to in that quote was written in August but is still very relevant. So be informed, Tuberville not recruiting one OL his last two years is going to hurt and it could hurt pretty badly. All these great RBs and WRs that everyone is carrying on about are not going to mean near as much if there is no one to block for them.

Back to the defense though where we are experiencing "Apocalypse Now". The DL is thin and while there is some talent it does not appear to be enough as we cannot get a consistent pass rush from our front four. The LBs and safeties are not great to begin with and we literally have nothing behind them. On that subject, WBE also pointed out: "Chizik’s not sure if there’s a connection between playing the same three linebackers and two safeties every snap of the game opposite an offense that ignores time-of-possession and missed tackles in the fourth quarter. It’s quite the mystery, I tell you." Talk about "Apocalypse Now". If you are going to play this kind of an offense you BETTER score some points.

Back on point, the reason the defense is in this position is because of poor recruiting and like Collier says "watching Auburn's defense trying in vain to bottle up Kentucky's running game on Saturday night was probably enough to remove any lingering nostalgia for the Tommy Tuberville era among Auburn fans." Well said Will, well said. It does indeed for me. I thought it was ludicrous at the time when many AU fans wanted to start calling him our greatest coach. Please. I will always remember 2004 as one of the best years in Auburn football history like 1993 with Bowden. However as each day goes by and I see how long it is going to take to dig out of this hole Tub left us in I lose more respect for him.

Of course, we can't blame everything on Tub like missed tackles or our overall soft defensive philosophy. To conclude on this subject, again Collier says it better than me: "While Gene Chizik and Ted Roof will and should share some of the blame for the current mess on the field, neither can do anything about the two or three years of lackadaisical recruiting that brought us to this point. It's hard to locate even half a dozen starters who'd make the two-deep on any SEC defense this side of Nashville, and I'm sorry to say that Tuberville's legendary laziness is largely to blame." Again spot on.

Now he and we will turn to the offense which shoulders the real blame for the loss Saturday night. The defense was bad late but we should still score more than 21 points against a UK defense without their starting CBs. Collier spends his time mostly on the fact that opposing defenses have figured out our offense and are ready for it. See our McCalebb sweeps and swing passes to Fannin for evidence of that. Far be it from me to quibble but I must say that opposing defenses are on to our SHORT game. That is what we have used to make most of our big plays so far (because maybe our QB isn't the best throwing downfield?). However, as my brother pointed out to me as he was at the game, there were WRs running around wide open all over the field all night. So what happened?

The answer is simple. No ones wants to face it or mention it for fear of being like 2008 or whatever reason. We lost Saturday night for one reason, our QB did not make the plays needed to win. The reason was Chris Todd. Sorry folks, when your OL does not allow a sack, your RB piles up 132 yards rushing and there is not an overabundance of drops then your problem is at QB. Of course, as predicted, the excuses start up immediately. Todd is hurt, Todd is hurt, blah blah blah. I have seen a lot Auburn QBs have bad games but never the excuse-making that surrounds Chris Todd. I saw Brandon Cox implode and I think some of his problems WERE physical but there wasn't near the excuse-making Todd gets. I saw Jason Campbell play bad but didn't hear immediately following the game that "oh Campbell must be hurt" and so on. I mean these people act like Chris Todd would be Tom Brady without his chronic shoulder problems. I admitted after UT that this guy was a little better than I thought but come on. A sore shoulder has nothing to do with the critical third down pass he turned and threw out of bounds or missing a wide (and I mean wide) open Tommy Trott or tossing that last gasp fourth down pass into double coverage. While Todd has thrown some bullets this year when he was able to really wind up and step into it, most of our big plays have been shorter plays that went long or underthrown deep passes.

War Blog Eagle is right when he says that the offense WAS good (with Todd). However again it was against a much easier schedule other than maybe UT. Also it was before the SEC and everyone else got a good look at the Malzahn offense. I said after the Arkansas game: "It appeared to me Arkansas played the running game and all the little short stuff Auburn throws really tight. They dared Chris Todd to go over top and he could not do it." I would pretty much say the same thing for Kentucky. The fundamentals of football don't change. No matter how many times a coach tries to "reinvent the game" it never really changes. In this day and age you must have a vertical passing game to keep the safeties and everyone else backed up a little. We are now going on four years of declining Brandon Cox and Chris Todd. For four years we have had a weak-armed #12 at QB that simply could not do that. To me that is the major reason we have not been effective on offense against the better teams.

Malzahn came in and did some good things and confused teams and threw a lot of different stuff at them. We got our playmakers involved and found some new stars as well. However when the smoke and mirrors fade you simply have to be able to throw down field. We won't win another game this season other than Furman with out it. If by some miracle Todd can find those receivers and hit some passes downfield we will do some damage on offense. If he does not the question will only be how bad will it get...

Week 7 Picks

We are now starting the second half of the college football season. As noted other places, we wait all year for this and then it goes by in a flash. The second half of the season will be much more interesting than the first half for most of the teams in the SEC especially Auburn. We will really find out what Auburn and most of the rest of the SEC is really made of. I went
I went 4-1 last week in games against BCS opponents and am 21-7 for the season in games against BCS opponents. Let's get the second half started...

Kentucky at Auburn
The Wildcats limp into Auburn without their starting QB Mike Hartline and several key defensive players. They are 0-3 in the SEC after having to start with Bama and Florida and then losing a close one to South Carolina last week. Coach Rich Brooks has proven over the last few years that he has a little left in the tank and made Kentucky a more solid program. However he is sort of starting all over with this year's team and it will be interesting to see if he can build them up again. Of course it is hard to tell exactly how good Kentucky is when they start against Bama and Florida. Everyone looks bad against those guys. However I still think this Kentucky team is more of a rebuilding one.

Meanwhile Auburn is glad to be back home playing at night after last weekend's lunch time debacle at Arkansas. Auburn's talent and depth usually looks really thin against most SEC opponents but not against Kentucky and all their injuries. Auburn is the better on both sides of the ball although the edge is slight on defense. Most Auburn fans are really wanting the defense to be more aggressive. Gene Chizik made some curious comments this week about not being able to blitz as much and be as aggressive because of Auburn's depth problems. I don't really understand his point. It seems to me that if you are really aggressive you are going to stop them or they are going to score quickly. Auburn needs some quick stops and they are already letting opponents score quickly playing so vanilla. I just don't understand it. A defense has to be aggressive. To me, taking that away puts you behind from the start.

With that said I expect the Auburn offense to return to form against UK's depleted defense but I also expect UK's offense to have their best outing of the season. I expect a 40-something to 20-something game here with...
AUBURN OVER KENTUCKY

Arkansas at Florida
Arkansas showed again last week that Bobby Petrino knows what he is doing on offense. QB Ryan Mallett showed his promise although he missed a lot of easy passes. Arkansas enters the last third of their grueling six game stretch. They lost the first two against Georgia and Bama and then won the last two against Texas A&M and Auburn. They now look to at least split against Florida and Ole Miss. While they looked much better last week I think they will have to look to that Ole Miss game for their next win. I do not expect their defense to play as well as they did last week and I expect Mallett to struggle some on the road against a really good defense like he did against Bama.

Florida won a big one last week against LSU and as I noted in my last post, Coach Urban Meyer went away from his long standing strategy of trying to get as many plays as possible on offense. He went more traditional running the ball and shortened the game relying on his defense. I look for more of the same this week although you will definitely see Tebow hit a few long passes against the less-than-stellar Arkansas defense. It will be close early like last year but Florida will pull away late...
FLORIDA OVER ARKANSAS

South Carolina at Bama
Unfortunately like every week, the team Bama opposes doesn't seem to match up with them too well. The problem is when you have a defense as good as Bama and then they have several stellar playmakers on offense they are just going to be hard to beat. South Carolina DC Ellis Johnson has proven he is one of the better coordinators in the SEC over the last few years. He should slow down the Bama offense some however once again the South Carolina offense looks a little short on playmakers. QB Stephen Garcia has improved and is playing much better but overall the offense is in the bottom half of the SEC.

Add to that the fact that South Carolina has imploded down the stretch just about every year but Spurrier's first year there. They will not start this second half good either...
BAMA OVER SOUTH CAROLINA

Elsewhere...
GEORGIA OVER VANDY
OLE MISS OVER UAB
MISS ST OVER MTSU

LSU AND TENNESSEE ARE OFF THIS WEEK

Week 6 Review

Once again I am apologizing for a late post. A busy weekend and sick kids (and Batman Arkham Asylum) have gotten me all messed up time managment-wise. However I am back and have a few comments on this past weekend. Before we get to the Auburn game (of which I am the only Auburn blogger I know to have actually picked it correctly) let me comment on the other games. First, Florida vs. LSU. Well I called it wrong on Tebow. I guess the lesson there is never doubt if Superman will come back. Tebow played a good game and Urban Meyer called a better one. He actually showed his flexibility in trying to shorten the game instead of get more plays in. Very smart. And then you have LSU... they have two of the best I-formation type tailbacks in the conference in Charles Scott and Keiland Williams and they continue to completely waste them. Les Miles and OC Gary Crowton are outsmarting themselves. You adapt your offense to your players and they are not doing that so they have a bad offense. They are running a "hybrid" type offense anyway. I don't understand why they don't tailor this year's addition more toward the pro-style side and take advantage of these 2 great RBs. As always, running everything out of the shotgun puts everything on your QB and QB Jordan Jefferson is just not that good yet. So LSU will be good but did not come close to beating Florida and won't come close to beating Bama.

Elsewhere... UT and QB Jonathan Crompton rise from the grave to stun Georgia! I mean wow. I thought UT and Crompton would do that to Auburn but they waited a week. You have to give the team and coaches a lot of credit to get back up after a depressing game against Auburn and give that kind of effort. Kudos to the Vols. On the other side I think you can close the book on Georgia DC Willie Martinez at the end of this season. He will officially be made the fall guy and he could have company depending on how the Auburn and Tech games go.

As for comments on the Bama vs. Ole Miss game, see my previous post. Uh yeah that was an easy one to call. However rest assured Auburn fans that Ole Miss will be a different team on Halloween in Auburn. Houston Nutt has perfected laying down for Bama and getting his team up for Auburn. South Carolina nipped Kentucky to stir up mild interest in their game against Bama this weekend. Miss St's hard luck continued and Vandy got beat by Army. I think we can safely say that Vandy is back in it's familar spot of being the worst team in the SEC.

Now to Auburn vs. Arkansas and this weeks edition of "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly"...

THE GOOD
There is not much good you can say about Auburn's performance. They were pretty bad in all aspects of the game. I think I will have to go with the Arkansas defense here. Everyone knew their offense would do good but it sure looked like their defense got tired of everyone telling them how bad they were (including one former Auburn coach). I think they also were the first to use and execute the right strategy against Auburn. It appeared to me Arkansas played the running game and all the little short stuff Auburn throws really tight. They dared Chris Todd to go over top and he could not do it. He, of course, missed a wide open Terrell Zachary early for a sure TD but other than that he did not have a whole lot more chances as Arkansas stuffed Auburn's short game and pressured Todd. Auburn finally got loose in the third quarter and came within a decent kickoff coverage play of making it real interesting. However they continued the theme of the game and shot themselves in the foot.

Bobby Petrino and the Arkansas offense led by Ryan Mallett took complete advantage of the thin, soft, non-attacking Auburn defense. I was actually a little less impressed with Mallett as he missed a lot of easy throws. He should have done even better. However I will also say that Arkansas was helped immensely by two of the worst pass interference calls I have ever seen. I rarely say anything about the refs but those two calls definitely deserve to be in the ugly section. However Arkansas overall was very good on Saturday.

THE BAD
Let's see... The Auburn offense, The Auburn defense, The Auburn special teams and all the coaches in between. As Will Collier chronicled we have seen this before. The Arkansas game plus an early start equals disaster for Auburn. I mean I guess I agree with the rest of the Auburn blog nation that a game like this was inevitable but that doesn't make it any easier to watch or take. I expected us to probably lose this game but I didn't think we would do a Tubervillian tank job.

THE UGLY
This award once again goes to the job recruiting Tuberville did his last four years. It is HIM that is to blame for this woefully thin football team. It is really not even about $aban anymore, he just accelerated the process. This started with Jetgate. Each year our recruiting got worse from 2004 through 2008. Yes we got some good highly rated football players but not near enough of them. Tuberville misfired on so many players that I have simply lost count. We are now barely able to field a legitimate defensive team. We have TWO SEC-CALIBER LBS!!! TWO!!!!!! We don't even have many bodies behind them! What in the heck happenend here? Recruiting LBs is not near as hard as finding DTs and LTs and used to be Tub's specialty???

I mean for 4 or 5 years now Auburn has not been able to field a legitimate basketball team. We have played 3 guards and 2 small forwards for what seems like forever. Now our football team is starting to resemble our basketball team. I think that insult speaks for itself. I have never said it before now. Other than the disaster at LB, we are thin all over the field except for QB and RB. Our DL is not very good and there is certainly no help beyond what you see on the field. It is going to take years for Chizik and Co to dig us out of this hole and get our talent level up (if they can even do it).

THE FINAL WORD
The Auburn blog nation has pretty much said this is just a bump in the road and this will still be a good season. We will see in two weeks, we will see in two weeks. I do agree with War Blog Eagle that "it seems less likely than ever that an eighth win isn’t out there somewhere." However I do think that eighth win if it is out there will most likely be the Halloween game vs. Ole Miss at Jordan Hare. Other than that I think it would be the Georgia game although Mark Richt like Houston Nutt has made a career out of getting his teams back up for Auburn.

One more thing, I am really sick of the Auburn blog nation telling me how I have to be happy with this season because it is better than last year and we have exceeded many people's expectations (although currently we have only exceeded mine by one game, UT). In 1996, we went 8-4 and Terry Bowden was put on the hot seat. There was a lot of venom back then against those of us who would dare be unappreciative of an 8-4 season. However there are different kinds of 8-4 seasons. In 1996 we lost to every decent SEC team on our schedule in LSU, Florida, Georgia and Bama. I will simply NEVER be happy with that kind of season. Do you hear me out there? If we go 8-4 this year and lose to Arkansas, LSU, Georgia (or Ole Miss) and Bama I will not be happy with that!!! And I am pretty sick of hearing I need to be.

Week 6 Picks

Is Superman out for the game against LSU?

One of the biggest football weekends on the year and I am battling a cold and other issues this week. Good grief. I went 3-2 last week and am 17-6 for the season. Well I am down to the last minute so let's hit it...

Auburn at Arkansas...

The Gus Malzahn show rolls into Fayettville for what promises to be the best Auburn/Arkansas game EVER. This series has not provided many great games since it became regular in 1992. There have been a few like when Arkansas won the SEC West in 1995 by beating Auburn in a game where they were up 27-0 and then won the game 30-28. Auburn won a couple of defensive struggles in 2003 (10-3) and 2007 (9-7). In between those games were a lot of routs by both teams.

Like I said though, this year should provide the best game ever in the series. This game is a near guaranteed SHOOTOUT. Bobby Petrino vs. Gus Malzahn. The former Auburn OC vs. the former Ark OC. This is a tough pick because I think Ryan Mallett is a great QB but I think Auburn's defense might have a few more playmakers. Auburn is 5-0 while Arkansas got a big win on the road against Texas A&M last week. I think Auburn is the clear favorite but Arkansas is going to get a big SEC win sometime this year. Looking at their schedule, this is their last big game at home. I admitted Auburn proved something last week against UT however it is still not enough for me to truly believe in this team. All I have read is everyone already counting this game as a win. I just can't get there yet.

ARKANSAS OVER AUBURN

Florida at LSU...

Will he play? That is the single question that has hovered over all of college football this week. My answer is NO he will not play. He has not practiced, I can't believe any doctor will say he is 100%, the potential blowback against Meyer and Florida if he got hurt again, etc... I just don't think it is going to happen. I think Urban Meyer will rely on his vaunted defense and some smart conservative offensive play.

Les "The Hat" Miles meanwhile pulled another one out last week against Georgia. Has anybody pulled out many more unbelievable finishes than this guy? The win was a big one on the road against a decent Georgia team. It definitely might help LSU start playing more like they were expected to because before the Georgia game they were not. The LSU defense played their best game of the season last week but the offense is still not clicking. They made some big plays including the game-winning run by Charles Scott but they still just do not look that good. I think OC Gary Crowton is making a mistake by not moving LSU's "hybrid" offense more toward the pro-style side than the spread side. He has the biggest most powerful RB in the SEC in Charles Scott and they are just not getting the ball to the guy enough or using him correctly.

I think this game will be close if Tebow is out because Meyer will play it conservative but I think the Gators will get it done.

FLORIDA OVER LSU

Bama at Ole Miss...

What is the point of wasting any time talking or typing about this game? The Bama vs. Ole Miss series record is... Bama 49-9-2. If you don't count NCAA-mandated forfeits Ole Miss has beaten Bama twice since the SEC went to divisions in 1992 and those wins were against bad Bama teams in 2001 and 2003 and Eli Manning was the Mrs QB. Has Ole Miss EVER beaten a good Bama team? NEVER. This Bama team is #3 in the country and is on a 17 game regular season winning streak. Uh hmmm... I think I will go with...

BAMA OVER OLE MISS

Georgia at Tennessee...

Georgia has already had an up-and-down season and we are only 5 games in. They have their weaknesses but to use a tennis analogy they are "match tough" meaning they have played a lot of tough games and been in some tough battles. Meanwhile as I wrote in the previous post UT does not have a QB and looks badly coached on offense. They seem determined to call plays ignoring the fact they can only be good as a power running team. They do have a good defense and that should slow Georgia down like it did Auburn last week however I don't see how this UT offense can score enough points to win. I don't think it will be a blowout but I do think...

GEORGIA OVER TENNESSEE

In the rest of the action...

SOUTH CAROLINA OVER KENTUCKY

HOUSTON OVER MISS ST

VANDY OVER ARMY

Week 5 Review

How did it come to this at UT and it's proud tradition of great QBs?

Well, well, well... everyone including me said we would know a lot more about both teams after the Auburn/UT game and that was correct. First, let me say it, let me get it out the way... hmmph... I guess, I might have been a little bit off on Chris Todd. Oh OK I was wrong. There. The guy is still not the Heisman Trophy candidate that the rest of the Auburn blogs are making him out to be but grrr... ... I guess he is also not the complete BUM I thought he was. It is just another glowing piece of evidence that Gus Malzahn is a brilliant OC.

UT is not a very good team (mostly because of their QB) but their defense and DC are good and doing that well on offense and not throwing an INT is a major accomplishment against them. No matter the condition of the team it is big getting a win in Neyland Stadium. Props to the men from the Plains. Props also to Gene Chizik. HOWEVER I am not going to go right to giving the guy a lifetime contract. Like we found out with Terry Bowden, it takes some time to see if a coach has staying power. I think we have to see how Chizik does without Gus Malzahn when he is gonzo at the end of this season. However I will say that in the short term Chizik has done a much better job than I expected. Let's hit the official review...

THE GOOD

Auburn's offense goes here again. Gus Malzahn had a great plan. Auburn ran and passed for around 230 yards. Ben Tate had about 130 yards rushing. Mario Fannin got half a dozen touches which should be his minimum I think. Auburn also spread the love with 8 different players catching passes. Chris Todd effectively managed the game and made no big mistakes. In fact, he evaded the rush and made a few nifty plays I did not think he was capable of. He did have one miss though and that was missing Fannin near the goal line on the drive after the UT fumble. Fannin had position and it would have been a TD if Todd had not missed him. We will need to hit those plays against better opponents. McCalebb also had that Obomanu-like drop in the end zone. Again, against better teams Auburn will not be able to squander those opportunities.

THE BAD

The Auburn defense played very well most of the time on Saturday night. It is hard to say they played bad. However I will say they are showing BAD tendencies. I described this defense in the last post as "on-again/off-again" and they seem more like that after this game. They were on most of the first half and then suddenly let UT just fly down the field for a quick TD before halftime. They stone UT in the third quarter and let them score 16 points including the ridiculous last second TD in the fourth quarter. I am not a DC but playing so ridiculously loose in coverage allows just as many big plays as being overly aggressive. The Auburn defense must find a balance and play more consistent to win more big games starting next week.

I thought Josh Moon of the Montgomery Advertiser summed up the defense better than I can.

THE UGLY

The UT passing game gets this award. It picked it up in parts of the game but the majority of the game it was simply awful. QB Jonathan Crompton played down to expectations missing most of his early passes and most of them were easy slants or drags across the middle. Crompton would usually throw behind the WR and that is simply inexcusable for a 5th year senior. Of course early on when Crompton got it right the WRs dropped the ball including an embarrassing pass on a slant that went off a player's helmet.

The entire early UT offensive game plan was ugly. The Vols for some reason came out throwing. I know Auburn was stacking the line but I still think the Vols would have been better served to just pound away mixing in some play action. Even stacking the line I think Auburn will have a tough time stopping a good running attack. Auburn is small and thin on the DL and at LB. I don't know what Lane Kiffin's plan was. Whatever it was it seemed completely unrealistic for his current offense. Top that off with the execution on realistic plays and the UT offensive coaching was in a word, ugly.

Week 5 Picks

We finally hit October and here in Alabama it is finally starting to feel like football weather. The weather gets cooler and the football games get better. Most of the teams in the SEC have played most of their allotment of creampuffs and now face a month of SEC contests. Except for South Carolina vs. South Carolina St every game on the schedule is a good one. Only Florida has a bye this week and it may be the luckiest bye week in history as Tim "Superman" Tebow finally gets hurt and Florida's next game is at LSU. I went 4-1 last week which puts me at 13-4 on the season for games against BCS opponents.

Auburn at Tennessee...
The picture for this post came from the fact that I feel like the last man on earth that doesn't believe Auburn is an unstoppable juggernaut. I pretty much laid it out in my last post and my Auburn ties in my initial post for those who might believe I am not a "true" Auburn fan. Like I said earlier this week, me, a "negative" fan, already thought and predicted we would go 4-0 before the season started. Therefore while our offense has been a great and unexpected surprise the wins were not. Finally we are to a game I thought we would lose before the season. A game on the road against an upper-echelon SEC opponent.

This will be Heisman candidate QB Chris Todd's first game in one of the larger SEC enemy outposts. I am finally to the point where I can't stomach reading much less writing another glowing analysis of our offense. Please hit any of the links to the right and you will find as much of that as you can stand. Again I am not being a "hater" but I can only stand so much of that before we actually beat a big SEC team on the road. War Blog Eagle writes today that only Auburn fans who went through last year can understand why Gus Malzahn is such a genius. I went through last year and anybody who doubts my suffering from last year needs to talk to my wife. I do think Malzahn is a genius but I still have my doubts about this Auburn team and Heisman candidate Chris Todd. I definitely appear to be the last person that does though.

But hey maybe I am a "hater", maybe I am negative, maybe I am the last one on board, maybe this game will prove me wrong. I will definitely concede to being 1/6th wrong about the season if we win this one. I do think the match up of Malzahn vs. Kiffin the Elder is one of the most interesting matchups of the season. Can Auburn score 30 points on the Tennessee D? Auburn has won 53 consecutive games when scoring 30 or more points in a game, dating back to a 56-49, four-overtime loss to Georgia in 1996 (I was at that game, yeeesch). Thirty points seems to be the benchmark. If you read everyone else but me the answer to that question seems to be a resounding YES.

On the other hand you have the beleaguered UT offense vs. the on-again/off-again Auburn defense. This is where the game seemingly goes to Auburn as Jonathan Crompton is the worst QB in the SEC right now. I heard there are UT fans who consider Crompton UT's worst QB ever and possibly the worst SEC QB ever. I don't think he has dropped that low but he has been a big liability. However UT can hide him some using their more traditional offense. You have to believe Auburn will be able to snag a turnover or two looking at Crompton's past history and that being the Auburn defense's strong point. On the flip side though you have to think UT will be able to pull off a few big plays as well. Crompton will have one of his best chances to complete a pass or two when Auburn goes to their super soft zone. Can UT score 30 points? I don't think so but I do think they will get 20 or more.

So we are back to Auburn's offense. I hope to be proven wrong but until I see it I still can't believe it. I think the Auburn offense and especially Auburn QB Chris Todd will have their first tough outing against UT's defense. Conversely I think UT will be able to score just enough. If I am proven wrong I guess I will have to get on the bandwagon but until then...
TENNESSEE OVER AUBURN

LSU at Georgia...
LSU comes in undefeated but definitely looks like the weaker team. QB Jordan Jefferson has yet to have that breakthrough game and the defense led by DC John Chavis has disappointed. Meanwhile Georgia while having several weaknesses including their defense has rebounded from their season opening loss to Oklahoma St to win 3 solid games. I think the Georgia offense will be the best unit on the field and I don't see them losing this one at home.
GEORGIA OVER LSU

Ole Miss at Vandy...
Ole Miss tries to right their season after being the media's whipping boy because of their disappointing flop against South Carolina. Despite that game I think Ole Miss still has more playmakers on offense and defense than Vandy. It might not be pretty but I think the Mrs gets it done.
OLE MISS OVER VANDY

Bama at Kentucky...
This pains me to say but right now Bama will be heavily favored against the rest of the teams on their schedule. With Bama's offense playing well there are just not many teams that can score enough on their defense to have a shot. Certainly not Kentucky who got taken to the woodshed by Florida last week.
BAMA OVER KENTUCKY

Georgia Tech at Miss St...
This game is a lot more interesting than I thought it would be when the season started. Miss St is showing real life and real grit under new coach Dan Mullen. They regrouped after the Auburn debacle and beat Vandy on the road and had a win over LSU in their grasp. It doesn't appear yet that this group is ready to pack it in so Tech better expect a tough game. Meanwhile defenses are starting to catch up with Paul Johnson. The coaches and defenses in the top conferences are too good to be a one-trick pony. Johnson and Tech must find a way to integrate more passing into Johnson's triple-option attack. I am going to go with Tech but I think this will be a close one.
GEORGIA TECH OVER MISS ST

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (in Dallas)
Texas A&M comes in undefeated after playing absolutely nobody. Arkansas comes in after two tough losses to Georgia and Bama. I don't think Texas A&M has the defense like Bama to shut Arkansas down and I don't think Texas A&M has the offense like Georgia to outscore them. I am going with Arkansas in an absolute must-win game for the Razorbacks. Even though it is out-of-conference they need this win bad to get back on track and pull out a decent season.
ARKANSAS OVER TEXAS A&M

Finally I think South Carolina will be able to take care of South Carolina St. Check back Sunday for Auburn/UT reax. I am really looking forward to this game. We should know a lot more about Auburn after this one.