Week 3 Picks

Will this guy run through the Auburn defense again this year?

Well another week has flown by and we are already at week 3 of the season. All SEC teams are back in action this week. We still have several duds on the slate but also have quite a few good games and interesting matchups. I am 6-1 on the year on games against BCS opponents. Let's get to it...

West Virginia at Auburn (6:45 on ESPN2)
This game has actually become a little bit bigger than initially expected. This is mostly due to Auburn's early success and that West Virginia is not only a BCS out-of-conference opponent but also another step up on the difficulty scale. There is a lot of buzz in the air about this game and I would expect a sold out Jordan Hare Stadium on Saturday for the first time this season. Another ingredient that makes this game bigger is the fact that West Virginia just flat out embarrassed Auburn last year 34-17. Pat White and Noel Devine sliced the Auburn defense to shreds. It was as ugly a second half as I have seen by an Auburn defense. This was the point where people started talking about the team "quitting" last year. As an Auburn fan I sure hope the defensive coaches made the players watch that second half a few times. A lot of those Auburn defenders are still around including safety Zac Etheridge. It was the worst game I have seen Zac Etheridge play in an Auburn uniform. Noel Devine just made him look foolish.

Devine returns but QB Pat White is now playing on Sundays and has been replaced by senior Jarrett Brown. West Virginia has continued to move toward more of a passing offense under Bill Stewart. Brown has already passed for almost 600 yards and 4 TDs in two games. His favorite target is WR Jock Sanders and of course the running game is anchored by Devine. Both Sanders and Devine have almost 200 yards receiving and rushing in two games. The WVU offense seems to be humming on all cylinders. The defense though does not appear to be quite as good as in previous years but to be fair Auburn and West Virginia's defenses are rated nearly the same. However WVU has played the weakest opponent in Liberty.

Auburn's offensive success has been well documented. I think this is the week we will find out what kind of defense Auburn has. This is the week they should be the unit in the spotlight. The same could be said of WVU's defense. Also, the Auburn special teams have really taken a beating this week after a dismal effort against Miss St. I think Auburn needs to decide on one guy to punt return. I still like Mario Fannin in that spot even though he has done poorly so far. The guy is still one of the biggest playmakers on the team and if he could just get a little space I think he could impact the game as a punt returner. I would think with so much emphasis on special teams this week that they should look better.

Right now this game appears to be a shootout in the making but since nothing went as expected last week you never know. However I cannot see this game being a low scoring game. I see at least 50 points being put on the board between both teams. This is a tough call but Auburn is a hungry football team right now with a big home crowd and a defense that is fighting for respect so I will take...
AUBURN OVER WEST VIRGINIA

Georgia at Arkansas (6:45 on ESPN)
THE GAME OF THE WEEK
Many people just automatically make UT vs. Florida the "game of the week". It usually kicks off CBS' coverage of SEC football and used to always be one of the top games on the SEC schedule. However other than all the pregame hype about the coaches I just don't see a great football game. You have a #1 team in Florida playing a rebuilding UT team that lost to UCLA at home last week. I think the UGA at Arkansas is a much more interesting game and I think it is the "game of the week" this week. Auburn vs. West Virginia is close but a big SEC game is almost always more important than an out-of-conference matchup. So let's get to it...

This is a big game for both of these teams and especially for Arkansas. Bobby Petrino has his QB and has gotten a year at Arkansas rebuilding things out of the way. He is not expected to win the West but a winning season including some impact wins and a bowl are expected. That might be tougher assignment than it seems because as I previously wrote Arkansas might have the toughest schedule in the SEC. Starting this week they play Georgia, at Bama, at Texas A&M, Auburn, at Florida, and at Ole Miss with no breaks. That is a tough six week stretch. Therefore it is really important to get a win at home starting this stretch. Georgia is a tough but beatable team that has dominated Arkansas as of late winning it's last 5 games against them.

The game is big for Georgia too as they cleared a big hurdle winning against South Carolina last week. They win here and they are up 2-0 in conference. The Georgia offense was back with a vengeance last Saturday. They did it by spreading things around in the passing game. Five people had at least two catches. That really seemed to get everything going on offense. AJ Greene is still the main weapon but it appears others are now stepping up as well. Georgia's defense bent a lot last week but made some big plays as well. DC Willie Martiniez is still on the hot seat and really needs a big performance. I think he is going to have a tough time getting that this week against Petrino and Mallett.

The real wildcard is Arkansas' defense. Have they improved from last year? We just don't know and the answer to that question will probably determine the outcome of this game. Mark Richt is usually money on the road in the SEC but I think the law of averages and a hungry improved Arkansas team will spoil the Dawg's weekend...
ARKANSAS OVER GEORGIA

Tennessee at Florida (2:30 on CBS)
It is finally here, after all the talk and hype. I think everyone has heard about the various incidents involving UT coach Lane Kiffin and Florida. I think everyone knows the state of the two teams. As I said above Florida is #1 and UT is rebuilding. So what is there to watch for? I think Kiffin the elder will slow down the Florida attack some. I am not sure if he can stop the floodgates from opening at some point but I think they can slow down Florida some. I look for UT to try and take away the big play, the deep pass and make Florida be patient. Now sooner or later Florida will score and probably score a lot, they are that good. The UT defense will also need some help from their offense and QB Jonathan Crompton in not turning the ball over. However it sure looks like that there is no way UT can score enough points to win this one.

So after conceding this is an almost sure Florida victory you come to the next storyline. How bad will Urban Meyer run it up? He has been to me one of the biggest offenders in that area. Meyer, to me, has been much worse than Spurrier was in that category. Spurrier would keep the pedal down but usually got his second string in there sooner. Tebow's Heisman year was built on running up the score on outmatched teams. Florida lost just about all their big games that year. Last year I thought Tebow was much more deserving of the Heisman and he did not win it. Last year he stepped up in the big games. Meyer still tends to leave the guy in a little too long though IMO. So with that in mind I have been bringing up one scenario all week when asked about this game and it has been written up well right here.

I think that is right on. What comes around goes around and Meyer has been leaving Tebow in a little too long for a long time IMO. I think if does that in this game and it is that obvious then he could get his golden boy hurt. It will be really interesting to see how this one ends and how it is coached on both sides.
FLORIDA OVER TENNESSEE

And for the rest of the picks...
Vandy over Miss St
Kentucky over Louisville
Bama over North Texas
South Carolina over Florida Atlantic
LSU over Louisiana Lafayette
Ole Miss over Southeastern Louisiana