Well it was a busy weekend SEC sports-writing wise but it was seemingly alot of sound and fury signifying nothing. Every newspaper did their big football preview sections. For Auburn it was a a lot more quotes about how everything is completely different than last year (except we are still running the majority of our plays from the shotgun and starting Chris Todd).
There were a few useful nuggets I saw in between all the previews and predictions. One, Mario Fannin will return punts. After 3 years of watching Robert Dunn return punts that is very good news. Dunn had a few bright spots but I think Fannin is a much more explosive player.
Brand new post from Bitter breaking down the freshman and their playing time predictions. Good stuff. We also learned yesterday that Chizik is supposed to actually release a depth chart this week (!!!). Actual real info released to the masses??? Of course that "official release" might also come over the loudspeaker about 30 minutes before the game.
Speaking of the actual game, this humble blogger will be there. I was there to see most of the Dye era and was there to see the openings of the Bowden era (vs. Ole Miss) and the Tuberville era (a near loss to App St). I guess now I can add to that list the opening of the... Chizik era. So I should have plenty to say on all of it on Sunday or Monday.
However it is now officially prediction time here at STR... No real surprises here. I see Florida coming out of the East. Even with a loss I don't see them in any trouble there. I see Georgia coming in second with a surprisingly solid season. They have senior Joe Cox stepping in and he will have AJ Greene to throw to. They have a solid stable of talented RBs to replace Moreno and I believe they have kept their OL healthy this year. The wildcard for Georgia will be their defense which was not very good last year. DC Willie Martinez is definitely on the hot seat this season. That will be what I am looking at for Georgia. I think it will be a tussle between UT and South Carolina for third place. I, like everyone else, am definitely looking forward to see how Lane Kiffin and UT do this year. If he is smart he will lean on his dad and what should be a very good defense. So Florida is in Atlanta for the East with probably 1 loss.
I think Bama will repeat in the West. I know, I know, they are rebuilding their offensive line and starting a new QB. That is all true but they should have a heck of a defense and a favorable schedule. I think that puts them well out in front. Big news yesterday, $aban actually released a depth chart. They are able to actually list a 3-deep depth chart at just about every position. Compared to say, Auburn, that is incredible. Also check out the WLB position as the first, second and third string positions are the 3 of the most widely recruited and hyped LBs in this part of the country. Of course as an Auburn fan I could point out that any of Bama's big LB recruits who are not starting and don't play much would be starting and playing a lot in Auburn (-:
Back to the West race and Bama's depth chart... Their defense is deep and strong with some good depth. Their offense has several good RBs and of course Julio Jones. They also appear to have a number of pretty talented guys at WR to help Jones out as well. I think McElroy will also be solid at QB. Finally, the schedule. I think the Va Tech game could go either way but it doesn't really matter win or lose in the SEC. In the SEC Bama does not play either Florida or Georgia and their SEC road games are Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss St and Auburn. It is going to be hard for them to screw that up.
Meanwhile, everyone's other favorite LSU has to play FLORIDA AND GEORGIA BACK-TO-BACK. They also have to play Bama at Tuscaloosa. I just don't see LSU overcoming that handicap. I do think they will have a strong team. I think bringing in John Chavis at DC from Tennessee was a brilliant move. The guy is one of the best around and LSU's defense was horrible last year. I look for big improvement there as they have plenty of talent for him to work with.
I think Charles Scott is maybe the best RB in the SEC. The guy is a monster. The only problem I saw with him last year was they didn't use him enough. Against Auburn, LSU would line up in the I-formation on first down and hand off to Scott. The guy would then mow through the defense for 6 to 8 yards. LSU would then immediately go to the shotgun the next two downs (???). I just did not understand it. Finally, I hear a lot of people saying that they cured their QB problem with Jordan Jefferson. I am not buying it yet. The guy had some highlights at the end of last year but the jury is still out on him IMO.
Next up is the mrs... Ole Miss. They have their most highly anticipated team maybe ever. They really finished last season on a roll and bring back a lot of talent. The schedule looks pretty favorable as they get their top 2 competitors, Bama and LSU, at home. They also, like Bama, avoid Florida and Georgia, the top 2 teams in the East IMO. This is definitely about as good a shot as they are going to get to win the West (they are the only team in the West not to make it to a SECCG). They have a good QB, several good RBs and a lot of playmakers on defense. Unfortunately for them I think Bama's defense is better and that will be the difference. I think Ole Miss will probably be the runner-up in the West for the second straight year with LSU right there as well.
Watch out for... Arkansas. Bobby Petrino is a heck of a coach. He finally gets his highly touted QB Ryan Mallett who transferred from Michigan last year on the field. If this guy is anywhere near as talented as he is hyped to be look for Arkansas to make some noise. Bobby Petrino has a long history of doing a great job developing QBs. He also has a proven 1000-yard rusher in Michael Smith and some new guys coming in at RB and WR that are supposed to be pretty good. If the offense improves as it is expected to and the defense can improve just a little I think Arkansas will be a much better football team. Unfortunately Arkansas might have the toughest schedule in the SEC and that might annihilate any chance of this team showing improvement record-wise. My gosh look at this schedule... after opening with Missouri St and then having a bye week, Arkansas plays Georgia, at Bama, at Texas A&M, Auburn, at Florida, and at Ole Miss with no breaks. WOW. For a rebuilding team that is a tough road to hoe.
Next we come to Auburn and Miss St who are both breaking in new coaches. Unfortunately both teams most important season will be the recruiting season. New State coach Dan Mullen is putting in his spread offense at State and after 5 years of Sylvester Croom's bad offensive recruiting he is really going to have to work to get some playmakers to Starkville. I don't see good things for State this year after watching Auburn try to go to the spread and looking at their schedule. States’ non-conference schedule looks like it could be a real pain. It doesn't appear that way on the surface but when you look closer it is. They get one creampuff in Jackson St but then have to play Georgia Tech, Houston and at MTSU. That is a lot tougher than it looks. To win some games State and everyone else should follow Bama's example. Schedule one tough game (Va Tech) and then 3 complete creampuffs (FIU, North Texas and UT-Chat). My gosh that is three light scrimmages.
Finally we get to the Auburn Tigers. For just about every team the preseason is the time of relentless optimism and that is definitely true at Auburn. However like former Auburn coach Pat Dye once said "there are no miracles on the football field" and there won't be for Auburn this year. For the first time in a decade Auburn is not a serious contender for the SEC West title. Auburn has some very good football players but not enough of them. They also have a very unproven head coach and a new staff that has not been through a tumultuous football season together. Baton down the hatches boys because it is coming. However it should not be here till October. The schedule is kind to Auburn early on and I think they have a very good chance to start 4-0 with West Virginia at home as their toughest game. Once we hit October it gets tough pretty quick with back-to-back road trips to UT and Arkansas. Auburn then gets a breather with UK at home and then takes on LSU at Baton Rouge and Ole Miss at home back-to-back. They then get another breather at Furman before going to Georgia and then a bye week before welcoming Bama to the plains.
I had kind of thought Auburn had a pretty tough row to hoe this year and they do having to go on the road at UT, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. However while they have some tough back-to-back games they don't have a murderer's row like Arkansas. They have seem to have well placed breathers throughout the schedule. I am not sure how much it will help but it could especially for a team as thin as Auburn. Unfortunately I am pretty much going to go with what I have been saying throughout the summer. My preseason prediction for Auburn is 6-6, 2-6 in the SEC. I think we beat La Tech, Miss St, West Virginia, Ball St, Kentucky and Furman. I just don't see many wins elsewhere. UT and Arkansas could be definite possibilities but they are both away and for the UT game I just don't see us beating one of the best defensive coordinators in NFL history on the road with Chris Todd. I just don't see it. As for Arkansas Petrino beat us at home last year with absolutely nothing. Again I think we have a shot in that one but initially I have to pick Arkansas.
I see no chance at LSU and little at home against Ole Miss. Houston Nutt has proven time and again he knows how to beat Auburn and with us being so thin at LB, look for him to just pound us. It was Nutt who welcomed Chizik to the SEC back in 2002 (Chizik's first year as DC under Tub) by putting up 400 YARDS RUSHING on us at home against a thin Auburn defense. Finally, I see us putting up a good fight but being outmanned by both Georgia and Bama. I hope I am wrong but that is how I see it.
If things fell right we might could grab one or two of those and put up an outstanding season everything considered but with a few injuries it could get really bad as well. Meanwhile as this season plays out these coaches better be working feverishly behind-the-scenes recruiting. I will be back with picks for this weekend later...
No comments:
Post a Comment