I always think a bit about the title of my posts. In my experience many times something will just pop into my head that really describes how I feel about a certain subject or game. It did not take long for this post. I cannot think of a better way to describe this upcoming season than an "opportunity just ahead". It is a huge opportunity for the Auburn football Tigers. College football is about patiently waiting for things to line up and your team to have a real shot at a championship. This is true for just about every program except those who can finish #1 in recruiting for a decade where any shady stuff done is ignored. It is like a surfer waiting for that perfect wave to come in.
It takes a lot of things to line up on your football team. First, you have to have a good quarterback. Next you have to be pretty good everywhere else as well. You have to be very good in the trenches. You have to have some big-time playmaking running backs and wide receivers. You have to be at least very solid in the back seven on defense with some veteran guys that have a nose for the football. You have to have very good special teams play especially your kicker. You need to have a good group of juniors and seniors that really help lead the team in the right direction. Finally you need good coaching to put these players in the best position to succeed.
It takes a lot of things to line up on your schedule. You need the right tough games at home. You need your tough games spaced out decently. You need your home and road games spaced out decently as well. You need your open week in the right place. It also helps to pick up a weaker conference foe in your rotating spot and for a couple of your regular conference foes to be hitting a bit of a dip. For a lot of teams you need some good breaks on what happens around the country. Finally you have to avoid injuries and get that lucky bounce of the ball at the right time during the season that every single championship team in the history of sports has gotten.
The 2017 Auburn Tiger football team appears to have a lot of these things lining up for it. That is certainly no guarantee but it is much better than the years where none of these things are happening. Unfortunately that has been true of Auburn for much of this decade. Auburn simply had no chance to compete for a championship in 2011, 2012, 2015 and in 2016. The best the team could hope for was a big regular season win or two and a good bowl game those years. Auburn did get a few decent wins during some of those years and even got a good bowl or two but lost to Georgia and Bama all of them. Unfortunately that overshadows everything else.
Back to the present, lets take a look at the team. I said first you have to have a good quarterback and Auburn finally seems to have one in Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham. Stidham did more at Baylor in three games (against good teams) than Sean White did in an entire season. This included a 400 yard passing game against Kansas State. Anyone who thinks it is easy to throw for 400 yards in pretty much any game between Power 5 schools is misguided. Stidham also looked great at Auburn's A-day scrimmage and threw some beautiful passes. People will scoff at that but all of the Auburn quarterbacks looked awful at A-day the previous two springs especially in 2016.
None of this is a guarantee for success however when you have to change to a new quarterback you want the best prospect possible and I think Auburn has that. Next Auburn has to be good in the trenches and it appears they are. I do not think the Auburn offensive line will be as good as 2013 or even 2010 but they can be a very good line. A good line starts with the tackles and that is the best part of this line as well with seniors Braden Smith and Darius James. Smith has been a beast for four years and Darius James came to Auburn looking like the perfect tackle and got a full season of experience last year. This could be his breakout season. I think both of these guys will play on Sundays.
With that said, as camp has gone on the rumors have gotten stronger that Prince Tega Wanogho is making a run at left tackle. I am glad that he is maybe good enough to be an SEC left tackle as we will need one next season but I am a little leery of making this move. Wanogho has no game experience at all and he is going to take over the most important position on the line? (Yes I think left tackle is still the most important position on the line with a right-handed quarterback). I like James and Smith at the tackles better. I guess starting Wanogho would allow Braden Smith to move back to his more natural guard spot but again I like the experienced seniors at the tackles.
At the guards if James and Smith stay the tackles, it looks like there will be two redshirt sophomores in Mike Horton and Marquel Harrell. These guys do not have the experience but they look like great prospects and will be surrounded with good veteran experience. That brings us to center where senior Austin Golson will anchor the line. He also got a full season of experience last year at center. It looks like a good line with talented seniors in the right places. The only big deficiency here is depth. The only thing behind these guys are a lot of unknown inexperienced young guys and transfers. Transfers are always tricky the first year. I do not think Auburn can win a championship without Smith and James staying healthy even if Wanogho starts at left tackle.
On the defensive side of the ball things are kind of opposite but still good. I do not think Auburn has a standout dominant lineman but has a lot of good solid players. Many have tabbed defensive end Marlon Davidson a star but while he was very good last season as a freshman I do not see a dominant pass rusher like others do. He is very good and will start at one end while it looks like Jeff Holland will start at the other. Holland came in a very high rated recruit and has gotten a lot of experience the last two seasons. I think he is another player that could have a breakout season. Other players in the mix at end will be Paul James and Nick Coe plus incoming freshman Markaviest Bryant.
It looks like it will be Dontavius Russell and either Andrew Williams or Derrick Brown at tackle. These all seem to be good solid players and will have Byron Cowart backing up one of the positions and a lot of young guys that have been redshirted adding depth. Again I do not think this is a great line but there is some talent and depth and hopefully that can wear some teams down. Coach Rodney Garner has done a good job using his depth in the past and getting a lot of guys involved. Hopefully he can keep it up and push all the right buttons to get the most out of this group.
We now come to playmakers on offense. This appears to be one of the strongest if not the strongest part of the team IF Gus Malzahn can at least let Chip Lindsey build a high school level passing offense as compared to the middle school one Auburn has tried to run the last two seasons being completely exposed against anybody any good. Auburn has only passed with Malzahn as coach against either bad teams or when they are running at will. Anybody can pass in those situations. Exhibit A being Auburn playing an entire game last season between the second half against Georgia and the first half against Bama where the Tigers only had one first down and 60 yards offense.
Things will start with Kamryn Pettway who established himself as another member of Auburn's proud history of elite running backs. He rumbled for over 1200 yards while basically playing only eight or so games. Pettway will be the foundation of the offense and I am fine with that IF again Auburn shows a little more balance and they do not injure the guy again. I love all the Auburn writers at other sites blaming the Georgia loss on the Pettway injury. It is still Gus Malzahn's fault as he way overused Pettway especially in blowout wins over State and Arkansas. The coaches must do a better job of mixing the other running backs in.
Next on the list for me with running backs is the issue of the unbelievable underwhelming use of Kerryon Johnson. Kerryon is not a great between the tackles runner, he can do it but to me it is a waste and he will probably get hurt. Kerryon is the Reggie Bush to Pettway's Lendale White. Kerryon should be used like Bush was. Kerryon is already a proven playmaker. Get him the ball in space, use him much more in the passing attack and find other ways to get him the ball. I would also use him on punts like Carnell Williams did. I think a good offensive mind and coordinator would be able to get a lot more out of a tremendous talent like Kerryon Johnson. I believe this is another place that might be the difference between a championship and just another decent season.
Along those same lines is blazing Kam Martin. I thought Auburn could have gotten Martin a ton more experience in the many blowout wins Auburn had last season. However Gus never uses the second half of a blowout to get any better. He just keeps handing off and slogs to an Ambien finish. A good coach would use those times to get up and coming players quality time. It is not unsportsmanlike to throw a swing pass or two to a 3rd or 4th string running back! This season that time should be used to develop Malik Miller and a quality backup to Chandler Cox. Kam Martin should be important piece to every big game plan this year. I think he could make some big plays.
Finally we come to the receivers and tight ends. I will start with the tight ends. I have heard a lot of blather about getting the ball more to Jalen Harris and newcomer Sal Cannella. Usually I would agree with that but with the amount of good wide receivers we have I think they should be the main priority. Unfortunately I also think Harris and the unproven Cannella are one of the biggest weak spots on this team. They are not anywhere close to C.J. Uzomah and Brandon Fulse who were the last good tight ends at Auburn. I just hope they can get their blocking duties done. Toss a few to them to put it in people's heads but as little as Auburn passes the ball the wide receivers should come first.
I will say again how amazed I am that Auburn has these good wide receivers. Auburn is a school where wide receiver stats go to die. Auburn is probably the only Power 5 school in all of college football to only have two players have 1000 yards receiving seasons in its entire history. Yet with all that said we are looking at one of the best wide receiver corps in the country. Kudos again to former coach Dameyune Craig for helping bring most of these studs in. The main guys this year will be: Nate Craig-Myers, Kyle Davis, Darius Slayton and Eli Stove plus steady senior Ryan Davis. As I have said in game reviews from last season, these guys were criminally underused.
You can see the talent dripping off of them but they were stuck in Malzahn's Wing-T offense and his abysmal coaching in the passing game last season. The receivers only hope this season is IF Chip Lindsey is a good coach and then IF Malzahn will let him build a passing game and actually use it at critical times. I am not going to lie, I will have to see it to believe it. It is proven that up till now Malzahn himself is simply incapable of building a good passing game. He will run just Kamryn Pettway 30 times in a game but will never pass the ball 30 times. Again Malzahn will not let 3rd stringers throw passes in the second half of blowouts. He just does not get it. You cannot get better passing the ball unless you do it every game and use little games and blowouts to get experience. You cannot just turn it on and off like a light bulb. Auburn will lose at least three games if the passing game is not changed and improved.
We change sides of the ball and look at the back seven on defense. I remarked earlier that Auburn has to be at least very solid in the back seven on defense with some veteran guys that have a nose for the football. I believe Auburn has that if injuries do not overwhelm them. Auburn finally has an above average set of linebackers led by DeShaun Davis and Tre' Williams. These guys have proven themselves and I believe are some of the top leaders on defense. There also appears to be some decent depth around them but the Tigers really need these guys leading the way.
The secondary looks pretty good as well except maybe not as deep. The mainstays will be: Carlton Davis, Javaris Davis, Tray Matthews, Stephen Roberts, Daniel Thomas, Nick Ruffin and Jamel Dean. That is a lot of experienced players. I hope they can stay healthy and finally put together that special season. It has been a tough road through injuries and other things for these guys. If the coaches can find some good consistent pass rushers I think this secondary could really make some big plays. I know it is always like that but I really feel this unit could really bust out given the chance. Again you wait for these years when it could all come together.
The final group is special teams. Coach Tim Horton has inherited special teams coaching along with his usual running back duties after Coach Scott Fountain was relieved of his duties by Malzahn and moved to Georgia. It seemed like Fountain had done a really good job. I hope Coach Horton can do as good a job. He will have the soon-to-be all-time leading scorer in Auburn history to help him in senior kicker Daniel Carlson. Carlson might be Auburn's biggest asset overall. The Tigers will certainly need his best again this season. I believe Carlson could be the difference if Auburn plays well in several big games this season. I think Auburn has the players to have good solid special teams, it is up to the coaches.
So there you have it, for the first time in awhile Auburn has a team capable of competing for and winning a championship. They have the talent and also seem to have those junior and senior leaders that are needed as well. The next question is the coaching. This has been one of the biggest deficiencies on the team the last couple of seasons on offense. I am tired of writing it but Auburn cannot win a championship without a good passing game. It is just not going to happen. Can Chip Lindsey and Jarrett Stidham finally fix this problem? Will Malzahn let them? Is he is even capable of letting a semi-balanced game plan be called on a team he is head coach of? These are the biggest questions for Auburn this season.
Now to the schedule... Auburn got a decent one but not a great one. It could be better but first you have to remember Auburn can only compete for SEC titles in odd years since our awful athletic director ruined one of the best things about Auburn, i.e. having a great rival home game to end every season. I am of course talking about his idiotic decision to change and let Georgia and Bama be both at home (odd years) or both away (even years). It is so great on those even years when Jordan Hare Stadium lies dark and dormant in November.
Auburn has not played a big game at home in an even year in November since Cam Newton and company beat Georgia to win the SEC West. Right now it looks like they never will again thanks to AD Jay Jacobs "helping the conference" so Auburn fans better enjoy these odd years. I notice there is no way Bama would ever let Auburn and Tennessee be paired together like that on their schedule. This single act by Jacobs will continue to haunt Auburn football for a long time. I cannot describe the contempt I have for this buffoon and his continual missteps trying to be an athletic director. He has proven his continual incompetence over and over again.
Back to this year's schedule... it is decent till mid October. Auburn plays Georgia Southern, at Clemson, Mercer (homecoming in early September???), at Missouri, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. This Auburn team should definitely win all those games outside of Clemson. Auburn just has a lot more talent than all of the other teams and only travels to Missouri. It will come down to coaching and injuries. I actually think Auburn has a great chance against Clemson. Clemson has won three out of the last four games they have played against Auburn and could have won the one in 2010 as well. Auburn is due to play well against Clemson and Clemson, no matter what they say, is rebuilding after last year's title run and the loss of quarterback DeShaun Watson, the best player in the country last season.
After Ole Miss things get pretty tough as Auburn has to play THREE SEC ROAD GAMES in four weeks. The Tigers have to play at Arkansas and at LSU BACK TO BACK and then get an open week before going to Texas A&M. MEANWHILE BAMA DOES NOT PLAY ANY BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON. IT IS LITERALLY LIKE BAMA GETS TO MAKE THEIR SCHEDULE AND THEN LETS THE OTHER THIRTEEN TEAMS GET TOGETHER. It is complete and utter BS but it is one of the secrets to all those "championships". Bear Bryant ducked Georgia and Florida for years while Auburn had to play both every year. Bama would not have as many of those so-called championships if they had to play those teams every year.
Auburn should win at Arkansas but I think the Razorbacks will make them pay for it. A bruised Auburn team will then head to Baton Rouge where history says they will most likely lose. Auburn has only won three games in that hell hole in over 70 years ('93, '97 and '99). I read Auburn fan after Auburn fan that think we are just going to go down there and dominate. They obviously do not know anything about Auburn's history. The Tigers then head to College Station before returning home to Amen Corner with Louisiana Monroe squeezed between Georgia and Bama. Auburn should be favored in every game outside of Clemson, LSU and Bama.
All in all it is not a great schedule but it is good enough to still give this team a chance at a championship. As I mentioned above, Auburn has the right teams at home (Georgia and Bama). It has the tough games spaced out decently outside going to Arkansas and LSU. I think the open week is in the best place for this schedule. It also helps to have Missouri roll on for that one other SEC road game as well as the Mississippi schools to be hitting a dip. Now the Tigers need those good breaks from around the country and get that lucky bounce of the ball at the right time during the season that every single championship team in the history of sports has gotten.
So after breaking it all down I think everyone can definitely see that Auburn has a great opportunity to compete for a championship this season. Do I think they will do it? I am sorry to say that after watching Gus Malzahn coach the last three seasons I have to say that NO I do not. I think Auburn upsets Clemson and finally beats Georgia but loses to both LSU and Bama. They could win both of them but Gus Malzahn is just not that good a coach. I just do not think Auburn can build a championship passing game under him regardless of who is hired. I guess I will go with 10-2 but my gut says Malzahn will probably blow another one somewhere. The only thing that makes me stay with 10-2 is how bad the conference is this season. I hope I am wrong because an opportunity this good will not come around again for several years.
No comments:
Post a Comment