Week 11 Picks

AUBURN AT GEORGIA
Many Auburn fans will say this is the best game of the year and the best rivalry as well. Let me be clear here though, I said "best" not"biggest". Unlike our rivals on the west side of the state we do not try to pretend that the game with them is not the biggest of the year. It is and it will always be FOR BOTH SIDES. They continue to try to downplay the rivalry with Auburn as they believe this in someway makes them feel like they are better than us and that we are not an "equal". It is so played and pathetic that it does not bother me much anymore, it is just annoying. That reason and about a thousand more are why that rivalry is more of a hatefest for most fans and really not a lot of fun. Like Jay Coulter said on Track'em last week: " Watching the Iron Bowl is like passing a kidney stone. It only feels good at the end - and that's assuming you win." That about sums it up.

The flip side is the Auburn vs. Georgia game. Now like I stated in my last post the fan bases have become increasingly antagonistic toward each other. They are threatening to try and ruin a big piece of why this rivalry is so special and make it like any other rivalry but they have not succeeded yet. They have a long way to go. Again both school's greatest coaches have ties to the other school. There are hundreds of other connections. I don't think there are two big time BC schools that share a history like Auburn and Georgia. Both schools have broken the other school's heart repeatedly but the bitterness of the Bama rivalry is just not there. In 2002 I was completely sick that we let that game get away but after it was over I could be a little happy for Georgia that they won their first SEC championship since the early 80s. It is just a special game. Also as I wrote in my last post, not only is it the oldest rivalry in the south it is also the closest rivalry. The series record is nearly even and a few years ago the total points scored in the rivalry was dead even. While everyone in this state blathers on about Bama and Tennessee the stats show that rivalry is not as old or good as Auburn and Georgia.

This year looks to be more of the same. While neither school is competing for a conference championship there is a lot on the line Saturday night in Athens. Both schools are competing for a big time New Year's Day bowl and for an 8-4 season. Auburn is a lot closer to that than the Dawgs but this game is a must for both to attain that goal. Both schools end-of-season rivals are highly rated and look to be big favorites. Both schools need the win NOW. For Georgia, Mark Richt simply needs a big win over one his main rivals. A loss to Auburn and late to Georgia Tech combined with losses to Florida and Tennessee takes Georgia back to the Jim Donnan days. If the season ends that way Richt will be on the hot seat. As I said before, a win over Auburn looks more realistic than a win over Georgia Tech right now. The time is NOW.

The positives for Georgia is that they have some talent and are not as bad as they are being labelled plus the fact that a Mark Richt-coached Georgia team has never played bad against Auburn. Other than 2004 and that great Auburn team every single game has either been a Georgia blowout or gone down to the wire. Other than 2004 Auburn has only beat Richt twice, 24-17 in 2001 and 31-30 in 2005. Georgia grabbed nailbiters against Auburn in 2002 and last year and blew out Auburn in 2003, 2006 and 2007. Those are two big positives. Georgia is going to come out Saturday and play well. History seems to dictate that fact.

For Auburn the stakes maybe higher. An 8-4 season and a New Year's Day bowl would be a monumental achievement for this team and coaching staff considering the mess leftover after last year. A win over Bama will be a much bigger task so Auburn's best chance is against Georgia. It really is that big a difference between 7-5 and 8-4. At 7-5 all Auburn did different than I and most people predicted was beat Ole Miss at home and swapped a Tennessee win for a Kentucky loss. They would still make it to a bowl albeit a lesser one and that would be an improvement but beating Georgia would be a lot better. Going 8-4, stopping a 3 game slide and winning a big rivalry game on the road against Georgia and playing on New Year's Day would be much better.

To the game itself... I see both offenses finding cracks in the other defenses. Auburn's defense has improved with the return of Antoine Carter but a depleted linebacking corps and secondary leaves it vulnerable. Auburn has given up big plays every game and I expect more against Georgia. As has been WELL documented here at STR, the Auburn offense is completely dependent on Chris Todd being able to hit some shots downfield. You would think Auburn would score big against Georgia but both Arkansas and Kentucky had terribly rated defenses and were able to stop Auburn. It is up to Todd to complete those shots downfield. Ben Tate and the whole offense will open up if he does.

I think these teams are extemely close talent-wise. However I think Auburn has the better overall offense especially the running game and I think Auburn has the better defensive line. I think this will be another nailbiter and I have consistently picked against Auburn in all the big SEC games this year but for the first time I will go against the grain and go with...
AUBURN OVER GEORGIA

Last week I will say I went 3-0 with the easy games that were on the schedule against BCS competition to go 32-8 for the season in games between BCS competition. Here is the rest of the SEC picks:

OLE MISS OVER TENNESSEE... everyone is going with Tennessee in this one and that is usually when Houston Nutt comes out of nowhere to get a big win.

KENTUCKY OVER VANDY... Rich Brooks showed he could still coach against Auburn and I think Kentucky has a few more playmakers than Vandy.

FLORIDA OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... Florida will probably be slowed down but I don't think South Carolina has the horses to finish it off.

BAMA OVER MISS ST... Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs showing signs of life but Bama like Florida just has too much talent.

Elsewhere LSU will beat La Tech and Arkansas will beat Troy.