Before I start on that I will say it is a special year at Auburn for me. My dad graduated from Auburn in 1966, I graduated from Auburn in 1992 and this fall my son is transferring to Auburn. Three generations of our family will hopefully be Auburn graduates. Unfortunately for my son I do not think he will see the success my dad or I saw when we went to Auburn. My dad started at Auburn in 1961 and got to be a part of the incredible 1963 season where Auburn only lost once, beat Joe Namath and Bama and went to the Orange Bowl. I am still proud to say my first three years at Auburn, 1987 to 1989, is still the best three season stretch in Auburn history.
This season will probably be the best one my son will see as a student especially since he is a transfer and will hopefully only be there for two years. This will also be a special season since it is the end of an era, the final end of "Amen Corner" as Coach Dye used to call it. It used to be Florida, Georgia and Bama. After 1992 it became just Georgia and Bama. This will be the final season that basically ends with Georgia and Bama. The SEC sure "fixed" that situation but more on that later. As with every year we will look a the new recruits, the rest of the team and the schedule plus the official prediction on the season. Lets get into it...
THE RECRUITING CLASS
The 2019 class was good, most services had it right outside the top ten, but it had the same problem many of Malzahn's classes have had and that is a lack of quality linemen. The top of the class was huge with five star quarterback Bo Nix and five star linebacker Owen Pappoe. It appears both will be starting or playing a lot right off the bat this season. I look for both to be leading their units for awhile at Auburn. I think these guys are top notch. Bo Nix is getting all the attention and I love the kid but I think Pappoe could be his equal on the other side of the ball. Nix has already gotten the starting nod and I do not think it will be long for Pappoe does as well.
Auburn crushed it at defensive end piling up four good commitments in Charles Moore, Jaren Handy, Derick Hall and Colby Wooden, all four star recruits. I certainly hope one of them develops into a good pass rusher because that was the gaping hole on Auburn's defense last season. The problem is unless one of these guys have the skills and grow into the role Auburn got NO defensive tackles in this class. Malzahn and the boys also came up short on offensive tackles as usual. It is obvious that the word is out for whatever reason and that word is if you are a top rated offensive tackle, do NOT go to Auburn. Auburn's rivals appear to have gotten that message out very effectively.
Auburn put off the reckoning for one more season with transfer Jack Driscoll coming in last season and Prince Tega Wanogho staying one more season. The good news is Auburn has an all-senior line this season and the bad news is Auburn has an all-senior line. The word now is the staff is really going to concentrate on offensive tackles next recruiting season, well duh. Many of us have pointing out Auburn's lack of tackles in recruiting, offensively and defensively, for awhile and next season the bills will come due. You combine that with Auburn's schedule next season and well we better enjoy this season. Auburn did bring in four offensive guards in this class but to compete in this conference you need tackles.
The rest of Auburn's recruiting class mainly consisted of defensive backs. It looks like Auburn got some decent talent in the pipeline along with running back D.J. Williams, several tight end prospects and a couple of wide receivers. It is a solid class similar to many that Malzahn has brought in. Again though the question remains... "where is the beef?". I think this theme will be the big discussion topic in all of the season previews next year. I think between coaching and offensive line recruiting, we may never know how good Bo Nix could be. The puzzling question that remains is what is the sales pitch against Auburn on offensive tackle recruiting? I know the tackles in Malzahn's offense are never great pass blockers so I am guessing it has something to do with that.
THE TEAM
As always we will start at quarterback since it is most important position on the field and it is a good transition from talking about the recruiting class since it has been announced that true freshman quarterback Bo Nix will be starting against Oregon. I think everyone was pretty much expecting that to happen. I was initially worried Gatewood would transfer and leave Auburn with no good backups but he has already burned his redshirt year so there is no reason for him to transfer before the end of the season. I think everyone can see that "it" factor in Nix and he must have been clearly better for Malzahn to start him. Well maybe, Nix doing fairly well will be a big factor in Malzahn keeping his job another year, a big factor.
The question is, will Nix be held back and not progress under Malzahn's coaching and system. No quarterback who has played multiple seasons at Auburn has improved under Malzahn. It started with Barrett Trotter and then continued with Nick Marshall, Jeremy Johnson, Sean White and Jarrett Stidham. You could argue Trotter, Johnson and White simply were not that good. However Marshall and Stidham led Auburn to SEC West titles in their first season and seemed to get worse in their second season. Every quarterback is also hurt by Malzahn's system. It is a step above the triple option and very predictable at times (like every first down).
I think these factors will all hurt Nix but I also believe Malzahn who runs the ball almost 70% of the time anyway will probably run even more with a freshman quarterback. This will protect Nix and minimize the chances of him making mistakes. It is a good strategy initially but again sooner or later you have to develop your quarterback and that is where Malzahn usually comes up lacking. I will discuss more in my prediction but this offense will absolutely run some of these teams out of the stadium and everyone including Nix will look really good. The tougher games will obviously show where Nix and this offense is really at. Basically for me it comes down to two facts, I love Nix but I hate the Malzahn system.
One person who certainly will not hate the Malzahn system is J'Tarvious "Boobee" Whitlow. Malzahn has made it clear many times now that Auburn is a run-based play-action team. He has made it clear that will NEVER change. Also as previously discussed, he is now starting a true freshman that needs to be protected by a strong running game. Finally, Malzahn has never embraced a two-back system but has always eventually gone to one guy and then run him into the ground, i.e. Peyton Barber, Kamryn Pettway, Kerryon Johnson, etc... As long as Whitlow stays out of trouble and holds on to the ball he will be by far the most used weapon on offense. I think the coaches will use Shaun Shivers but not anyone else that much unless Whitlow gets hurt.
I am still not sold on this offensive line, they are seniors but they were juniors last season and were not that good. I will say I have seen J.B. Grimes do amazing things before, i.e. Greg Robinson in 2013. However Robinson was a five star recruit so the potential was there. I am not sure that will happen this season but you have think they will improve some being under Grimes for a second straight season. I think again this team will be a lot like the 2016 team, they will absolutely destroy the easier teams on the schedule and look like world beaters but will this offensive line be better in the big games? This line just never really showed many glimpses of becoming a great line last season especially in back-to-back losses to Tennessee at home and State on the road.
Another key to the running game will be tight end and H-back. These two positions while not used in the passing game by Malzahn are key to the running game. All of Malzahn's better teams have had good-to-great blocking tight ends and H-backs. Auburn brought in several prospects this season at tight end. Malzahn has also just moved over another lineman to be the tight end in the past as well. However it just does not seem like tight end will be a team strength this season. I am intrigued with Arizona State transfer Jay Jay Wilson and freshman Harold Joiner at H-back. I think both of these guys especially Wilson for this season could be a huge asset, possibly the difference in winning some of these games.
Finally on offense, we come to the wide receivers. Auburn is pretty stocked at this position but again they are limited by the Malzahn offense and coaching. These guys will look awesome when Auburn can run the ball but as with every other Malzahn team they will struggle with good teams due to Auburn's simple and predictable passing game. I look for Eli Stove to return to doing jet sweeps and short routes. I look for Will Hastings on the crossing route although they will not call it enough. I look for Anthony Schwartz to do his best Sammie Coates impersonation going deep. I look for Seth Williams, Matthew Hill and Sal Cannella to be our possession guys.
Auburn has a good offense with a lot of weapons but I will continue to say as I have for the last six years, they are limited by Malzhan's one-step-above-an-option-offense. I hate to keep saying the same thing but after six years, I am not sure what else there is to say? Malzahn will destroy the teams he can run over like 2016 and then struggle and likely lose to the good teams on the schedule. I know that is basically true of all teams but with option-type offenses it is even more true. You either can stop them or you cannot. Look at Georgia Tech the last decade, they either just destroyed people with that offense or they usually lost.
I will move to special teams. I thought freshman Anders Carlson did a good job last season. He missed some long ones but I think he showed he is a good kicker with potential to improve. I think punter Arryn Siposs looked even better. I think everyone is expecting big things from him this season. He could really make a huge difference. Auburn returns Noah Igbinoghene and Shaun Shivers as kickoff returners. They could definitely change a game if they can actually return a kick but the new rules make that rare. It will be Javaris Davis or Christian Tutt at punt returner which is probably the more important return position. You just cannot make mistakes at punt returner and both of these guys are unproven. This will be a position to watch.
Finally we come to the defense... and much has been made about this defense especially the line. Auburn definitely has some top-tier guys up there in Derrick Brown, Marlon Davidson and Nick Coe. The Tigers will be starting an all new set of linebackers but expectations are still high with K.J. Britt, Owen Pappoe and Chandler Wooten stepping in. The most valuable player in the bunch other than Derrick Brown is Nick Coe. It looks like they will move him around most of these positions depending on the situation. He can rush the passer, line up in the middle or play outside linebacker. A guy that versatile is a very valuable thing to have.
While the line gets all the press, the secondary is a veteran unit as well, you have three seniors starting in Jeremiah Dinson, Daniel Thomas and Javaris Davis plus junior Noah Igbinoghene. You have some decent depth plus some talented freshman coming in. That is about all you can ask for. I think one position holds the key for this defense and that is the pass rushing end. The drop off in the defense from 2017 to 2018 was the loss of Jeff Holland. Auburn just did not have a consistent pass rusher last season. I think Marlon Davidson is a good end but he is not a pass rusher. I think that either Nick Coe, T.D. Moultry or Big Kat Bryant has got to step up for this defense to be really good.
We heard all this same stuff about the defense last season and while they were very good at times they made some bad mistakes and had some sinking spells. The defense started strong but committed some really bad pass interference penalties against LSU that cost Auburn the game. They were absolutely bludgeoned at Mississippi State and gave up some really big third down conversions against Tennessee which hurt bad. They were shredded by Texas A&M running back Trayveon Williams, Georgia running back D'Andre Swift and Bama quarterback Too Tagovailoa giving up over 400 yards offense to all of those teams, over 500 yards to Georgia and Bama. Folks that is not a great defense, it is not even close. This could be a good unit but I am tired of hearing the hyperbole.
THE SCHEDULE
Auburn pretty much has the toughest schedule in the country. Texas A&M has claimed that title however while the Aggies have Clemson instead of Oregon Auburn has to go to the Swamp to play Florida while A&M has South Carolina. Let us just say Auburn has a ridiculously tough schedule and a nearly impossible road to the SEC Championship game having to play in the toughest division in college football and then having to play the two best teams, Florida and Georgia, from the other division. I mean come on, as I stated last season I am ready to get rid of the permanent Georgia game and go to two rotating opponents from the East. It is just way more fair.
Meanwhile big bad Bama's schedule is a joke compared to who they are supposed to be. I mean are you kidding me??? Bama sure deserves some blowback from this joke of a schedule but I am sure they will just cruise into the playoff again. You look at the schedule for Auburn and Texas A&M and then you look at the Bama schedule and you shake your head. Auburn and A&M play major out-of-conference powers and Bama plays Duke. Duke???!!!??? This is not a "hey we scheduled them years earlier and they are just down" scenario. Duke has always sucked at football and they always will. Bama should really be hurt by not scheduling ANY decent out of conference games. In the conference Auburn plays Florida and Georgia from East while Bama plays Tennessee and South Carolina. I mean all I can do is shake my head.
Of course it only gets worse for Auburn next season as the SEC completely @#@#$@ the Tigers again. Auburn did not want to play Georgia, Bama and a possible SEC Championship game in three out of four weeks (Auburn and Bama both have cupcake games the week before the Iron Bowl). I think 2017 proved that winning that gauntlet when Georgia and Bama are two of the best teams in the league is virtually impossible. So what does the SEC do for Auburn next season? They move Georgia back but then move LSU to the week before Bama???!!!??? Now the schedule is even worse! #$%$ the SEC, that is just complete garbage.
I am sure they will keep it that way. It is obvious they have a bias toward Auburn because this is completely RIDICULOUS. It is impossible for ANY team to beat LSU, Bama and the SEC East champion in THREE STRAIGHT WEEKS. I mean Auburn is pretty much done competing for anything until that schedule is changed. I love Auburn football but as I have said many times, I hate the college football system. This news really just kind of ruins it for me. I just cannot get into it when they stack the deck this bad. I just cannot get into it when Auburn has no chance of competing for a conference championship. I know the national system has always been a joke but now the SEC is too. I mean what is the point?
THE PREDICTION
I have been accused of being negative but have been right on or too positive in my predictions. I correctly predicted Auburn would go 8-4 in 2016 and again correctly predicted 10-2 in 2017. I lost my mind and predicted 10-2 last season and sure got that wrong. What will happen this season? It breaks down pretty easy in my opinion. I think Auburn will beat Tulane, Kent State, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Samford. That is six wins. I think Auburn will lose to LSU, Georgia and Bama. I think the season comes down to Oregon, Texas A&M and Florida. I think Auburn beats Oregon and the Aggies but loses to Florida. That leaves the Tigers at 8-4.
Auburn simply has not been able to come close to winning at LSU other than 2017 since 1999. The Tigers blew a 20 point lead in 2017 with a better team so I just do not see Auburn winning over there. LSU fans should be ashamed of themselves for their ridiculous behavior. Auburn is not even sending their band to that big game because of how bad things are over there. I have been there twice and will never go back. I think Auburn could have a chance at upsetting Georgia but cannot predict it. Of course Auburn could beat Georgia and then drop two against Oregon, Texas A&M and Florida. Gus has never beaten a good SEC team on the road other than A&M so to me that still looks like Auburn's best shot at a win on the road.
I think Auburn is just flat-out better and will run the stats up against the first six teams I listed. Gus and the team will get a lot of mileage out of those games. Against the other teams, it is a different story. I know Auburn's defense is vulnerable from last season and Kevin Steele's history against anybody who can pass. I know the offense will have issues because it is predictable and has a true freshman at quarterback. I just think it all adds up to another 8-4 season and probably a pretty good bowl plus Gus keeping his job. I do think Auburn will beat Oregon because I do not think the Ducks defense is good enough to stop the Auburn running game. I am looking forward to getting football season started but am kind of dreading having to watch this offense again for another season.
How is the kicking game looking this year? Wde
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