Sunday, October 7, 2018

Game 6 Review: The Outlook is Stark

Mississippi State 23  Auburn 9.  I have seen the end of several head coaching careers at Auburn.  I do not think Auburn has, contrary to popular opinion, ever pulled the trigger on a coach too early.  It has always been the obvious right time.  The NCAA and his own health problems spelled the end for Coach Dye.  The worst recruiting class in modern day history was curtains for Terry Bowden.  Everything kind of sliding off the table made it clear it was time for Tuberville to leave and Chizik had to go after the worst season ever.  I think the end is nearing for Gus Malzahn at Auburn but thanks to the idiotic leadership on the plains giving him that ridiculous contract it is not going to happen.  I fear the loss last night might signal Auburn sliding into that black hole the University of Tennessee currently resides in.

I mentioned all of Auburn's modern head football coaches above.  The common theme in their departures except for Coach Dye was current or imminent recruiting problems.  You have to stop the bleeding as soon as possible to prevent a long term program slide.  Auburn was able to do that just in time after Bowden had alienated most of the high school coaches in the state.  Auburn was able to do that after $aban came in and Tuberville had lost that fight to recruit.  Auburn did it again with Chizik after the worst season ever and Malzahn has done some good recruiting.  However it appears that while the rankings might not show it yet, recruiting has started to slip the last two years.

Auburn was led last season on offense by NFL prospects Braden Smith, Austin Golson, Casey Dunn and Darius James on the line plus Kerryon in the backfield.  It is obvious now that Kerryon was the leader of the offense and Jarrett Stidham was effective when Kerryon had his back.  It is apparent now that Stidham is not a great leader and not half the player without all those guys from last season.  The offense was still not great against tough competition last season but good enough with a great defense.  Auburn lost a few key difference makers off the defense last season but still has a fearsome front seven this season.  However the offense, Malzahn's specialty, is just not good enough to get wins even with a good defense.

This season, in terms of competing for a championship, is over.  I thought it was over after LSU but it is definitely over now.  That automatically gets me thinking about Auburn's future outlook.  I have to say, as this post is titled, the outlook from Starkville, Mississippi last night is indeed stark.  I do not see any upcoming All SEC offensive linemen in this group.  The best candidate is five star Calvin Ashley who was whipped badly last night but even if he can be resurrected it will probably take a few years.  These guys are just not that good and I just do not see them improving enough from the disaster they are now.  I mean you have to be really good to make this ridiculously predictable offense work.

I do not see a great running back in the bunch.  Asa Martin was Mr. Football last season and probably the best chance but like Kam Martin and Boobie Whitlow he is undersized to be that every down power back.  That could change but will it change enough or matter behind a mediocre offensive line.  The passing game does not matter.  Gus cannot coach up a passing game and the only time it is effective is if...  Auburn has a great running game.  So if Auburn does not have a great running game there will be no passing game to bail it out, i.e. even incoming super frosh Bo Nix.  That was patently obvious last night as Auburn had to try and throw the ball against a good defense.  It is also obvious that every single quarterback that spends more than one season with Malzahn regresses as a passer, EVERY SINGLE ONE.

That is just the offense.  The defense which got absolutely bludgeoned last night could lose almost the complete starting front seven.  All the linebackers and Dontavious Russell are seniors and the other best defensive linemen, Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson, will almost certainly leave early.  I believe the defense will take a huge step back next season.  Let me pause though to recognize senior linebacker DeShaun Davis, the guy is a beast.  He got hurt pretty good but immediately came back in.  The guy is absolutely giving it everything he has and it is sad this season could not have been better for him.  He is not the only one either, I know the majority of these guys are working their butts off. 

Unfortunately for these players they are led by the most stubborn-to-a-fault person I have ever seen in head coach Gus Malzahn.  It really boggles the mind.  The last time the defense really killed the team was !!! 2014 !!!  The offense has consistently been the problem since then.  There have been some all-time horrible offensive coaching jobs along with the predictability and lack of any semblance of a modern passing game.  AFTER ALL THAT THE LEADERSHIP AT AUBURN MADE THIS GUY THE FIFTH HIGHEST PAID COACH IN THE COUNTRY PAYING HIM SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR.  The morons also gave him this percentage buyout garbage which makes it impossible to fire him for at least two more seasons.

Back to the start of this post and Auburn pulling the trigger to fire coaches at the right time.  Again I think Auburn has made all of its modern coaching changes at the right time.  The interesting thing about now is that I think Auburn will need to change coaches at the end of next season and they will not be able to.  The question is will the decision to commit to Malzahn long term ultimately help Auburn or put the Tiger program into an extended tailspin?

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