Auburn 2018 Preview: Good Team, Bad Schedule

Bama fans laughing at us with their ridiculously easy schedule

 

Well here we are again... the start of another football season.  While the world drowns in fighting and negativism the optimism flows freely around the Southeastern Conference in August.  Expectations are of course high on the plains of Auburn as they should be.  Auburn returns arguably the best quarterback in the conference along with what looks like a very good defense that features a fearsome front seven.  Those are some of the biggest ingredients of a good team.  Also Auburn coach Gus Malzahn was given a monstrous new contract and is now virtually unfireable now for those that value "stability". 

 

Every year since 2009 I have done a "State of the Program" post in the spring along with this season preview.  I decided to combine those into this post since they cover many of the same things.  The only difference is I review the recruiting class in that spring post.  Next year I will post a shorter quick-take post on the recruiting class.  I will say a few words here about it since I did not post anything on it earlier this year but normally I do not talk much about freshman in a preview post because if you are talking about freshmen being impact players then you are in trouble.

 

THE RECRUITING CLASS

The recruiting class overall was Auburn's lowest ranked in a few years but still made the top fifteen.  I thought overall it was pretty good but as usual I would have liked a couple more big linemen.  I think the key to Auburn's success last season and one of the biggest positives this season is the defensive line.  A lot of that was due to Will Muschamp's direct recruiting and influence his one year at Auburn.  Auburn brought in a couple of good defensive tackles and ends but I am worried that the coaches will not keep that emphasis that Muschamp brought. 

 

The thing you hear the most that separates the good Southeastern Conference teams is their defensive lines.  You simply cannot compete for a championship without them.  It is really the biggest thing along with the offensive line other than quarterback that will decide a coach's future.  Auburn only grabbed one maybe two defensive tackles and a couple of defensive ends.  It was the same on the offensive line where Auburn also only grabbed a couple of guys as well.  They all look like some decent prospects but any attrition will leave Auburn a class of next to no linemen.

 

Elsewhere Auburn grabbed good quarterback and running back prospects in Joey Gatewood and Asa Martin.  It is good to get them in the pipeline.  My only gripe here is I do not take Auburn's other running back recruit, the tiny Shaun Shivers, seriously.  He is too small and Auburn needed to grab another big-time running back prospect.  One thing Auburn should be able to recruit under Gus Malzahn is running backs.  He has shown without a doubt that he can feature a running back and continue to feed him.  I did like getting Harold Joiner out of Mountain Brook for H-back.

 

The Tiger coaches understandably went heavy on linebackers and defensive backs.  Auburn loses several senior linebackers this season and are still thin in the secondary.  Again it looks like Auburn got a lot of good prospects and that is about all you can hope for.  It looks like several freshmen defensive backs could be used this season especially with the new redshirt rule.  The new rule says that a player can play in four games and still be redshirted.  This is a rule that finally helps coaches.  This will allow them to get most if not all the freshmen some decent playing time and still redshirt them.

 

Finally the talk of the Auburn preseason camp has been the freshmen wide receivers.  It is hard for me to take seriously as Auburn does not throw the ball that much and wide receivers outside of a good runner like Ryan Davis do not accumulate stats at Auburn.  Again there has been only two players to have 1000 yard receiving season in the HISTORY OF THE SCHOOL.  Frankly I do not understand how Auburn ever gets a good wide receiver.  It is a fact that the most important thing about a receiver at Auburn is their ability to block especially under Gus Malzahn. 

THE TEAM
Everyone usually starts with the quarterback and I am no exception.  Jarrett Stidham is a very good one and proved it last season.  Unfortunately he will held back by Gus Malzahn's shotgun-Wing T-option offense.  As I said after the SECCG loss last season...

"Gus Malzahn might have allowed offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey to do some plays against his tendencies and throw a few more of his option-style misdirection passes but that is not a long term plan for success.  Auburn will never have an actual passing game under Malzahn.  I have pointed that out many times in this space but since I have to continue to watch it I will continue to point it out.  A simple drop-back pass and read will never be a part of Malzahn’s offense.  Every pass is a misdirection or trick.  Any part of the modern passing game is just not welcome.

It is just excruciating to watch at times.  I am sorry again I REALLY HATE this offense... and now I have to watch it for many more years to come.  I mean when Auburn can run the ball the offense can be devastating but in games where a normal team would have to rely on the passing game Auburn is finished, i.e. Clemson, LSU and Georgia in Atlanta.  Auburn will never win a game through the air while Malzahn is coach.  I hate that.  It is why Malzahn continues to lose the critical games."

Stidham can only be so good under Malzahn.  Again he is just constrained by this offense, no offense is wrong word, he is constrained by this system.  This is also why I do not even listen to all the hubbub about the new wide receivers.  Auburn will pile up passing yards against teams they can run all over but they will never be able to make enough plays in the passing game under Malzahn against tough teams.  A great defense led the way last season and Auburn was able to make enough plays behind the threat of Kerryon Johnson to beat Georgia and Bama at home.  .

That also had a lot to do with both teams completely underestimating Ryan Davis.  Add to that Jarrett Stidham playing a nearly perfect game within the system behind a great defense against Bama.  Georgia fixed the problem in the SECCG and was not going to let Ryan Davis bail out Stidham.  Count on Georgia and Bama to do that again.  Luckily for Auburn most teams they play will not be able to employ that strategy because they are outmanned.  We will see if Washington is good enough.  Count on them to duplicate Georgia's game plan in the SECCG to the best of their ability. 

I guess I can go to the running game now.  The stats speak for themselves, Auburn has had a 1000 yard rusher every season for over a decade.  Yes it is easier but that is still an impressive state.  This season though might be his greatest challenge.  Between Auburn's great running backs the last decade, steady veteran Peyton Barber stepped in and ran for 1000 along with out-of-nowhere Kamryn Pettway.  I just do not see that guy this season.  Right now the Tigers have Kam Martin, JaTarvious "Boobie" Whitlow, freshman Asa Martin and Malik Miller.  I am not even going to talk about 5' 7'' Shaun Shivers or Devan Barrett.  They are not going to be the horse.

The coaches ran Kerryon Johnson into the ground instead of playing Kam Martin.  They never showed a single bit of confidence in him despite how good he looked in lesser games.  He also has been injured several times since coming to Auburn.  He is supposed to start the season on top from what I have read but I have real doubts that he is going to hold up under a normal first-string Malzahn running back work load.  I will tell you one thing, if he does I am going to be seriously upset that we did not use him more last season to spell Kerryon.  I hope he is successful though.  However if he is not then supposedly the next guy up is...

"Boobie" Whitlow, a three-star running back from Lafayette, AL.  We heard great things about the kid all spring and he could be the next Kamryn Pettway running-back-from-nowhere but I certainly do not think that is guaranteed.  Asa Martin is a great prospect and "Mr. Football" in the state last season but is he ready to pound through SEC defenses for an entire season?  There is no way.  We finally come to the guy that I think should be the between-the-tackles answer and that is Malik Miller.  He is the only one with the size and experience to do it.  I think Auburn would be best served to use him and Kam Martin as a "thunder and lightning" type combo while mixing in these other guys. 

It is a proven strategy but not one Malzahn has used during his career.  We will see but to me running back may be Auburn weakest point.  The other one is offensive line where we will go next...  The Tigers lost a lot of guys at the end of last season.  The best thing that happened in the offseason was coach Herb Hand departed and coach J.B. Grimes returned.  Hand did a good job in spots as his offensive line paved the way for Kerryon Johnson's MVP season and those big wins but he was very inconsistent and the line looked terrible early both seasons he was in Auburn.

The line starts at left tackle with Prince Tega Wanogho.  I hated when Hand tried to force him in the starting lineup last season over senior Darius James but love that we have him this season to plug in on a new and upcoming line.  I love junior guards Mike Horton and Marquel Harrell.  These guys are big, strong and experienced.  It sure seems like they are ready.  I think we are reloading at guard with these guys and guard is a big position in the Malzahn system.  The coaches were talking about moving Horton to center but it seems that has passed and I am glad.  I think we can find a center, right now it is junior Kaleb Kim, but we need Horton and Harrell on both sides of him.

That brings us to right tackle and the biggest disappointment for me of fall camp.  I was looking forward to five star stud Calvin Ashley stepping in after redshirting last season.  That is not going to happen and not only that but Ashley has been shipped off to back up at guard.  The right tackle spot is now a two-man race between graduate transfer Jack Driscoll (from that football powerhouse Massachusetts) and redshirt freshman Austin Troxall.  Hey I know these are two hard working tough guys and maybe they will be great tackles but it is just so disappointing when you grab one of these rare five-star offensive tackle recruits that is so hard to get and they do not even start.

You want to know one of the biggest reasons $aban has been so successful at Bama?  That would be recruiting and developing five-star left tackles into first round NFL draft picks.  Let us look at the list: Andre Smith, James Carpenter, D.J. Fluker, Cyrus Kouandjio, Cam Robinson, etc...  People can try and nitpick their NFL careers but these guys were absolute beasts in college.  They were all five-star recruits and just about all of them stepped in as a first quarter freshman and started for three years before heading to the NFL.  THAT is what I expect out of a FIVE-STAR offensive tackle and while it seems to happen every year at Bama, it is not happening with Calvin Ashley.

There is not much to say about fullback/H-back and tight end.  Auburn has seniors in both spots and sure needs Chandler Cox and Jalen Harris to stay healthy and be great blockers.  I hope freshman Harold Joiner can get some good reps to get him ready to take over next season at H-back.  Auburn's tight end is just a blocker and always will be in the Malzahn system so I am sure there is a back up lineman that can take over for Harris if need be.  I am not sure why people continue to talk about throwing to the tight end with Malzahn.  He barely throws to the wide receivers and does not run a tight end much of the time.

Overall Auburn is definitely not as good this season as last on offense but does have a lot of the pieces in place to have a good offense in the Malzahn system.  The biggest key again is finding a running back or backS to "tote the mail" and make the Malzahn system work.  I have to think they will find a way.  As much as I dog the passing game within the Malzahn system, there can be no question the man knows how to run the football.  Of course it will be a lot easier when you have one of the best defenses in the country as the foundation of the team...

I think some people have pushed the hyperbole meter a little too high for me on this defense but dang it is sure nice to look at the depth chart there.  I mean WOW.  You see a ton of big strong guys who have performed in big-time games.  Look at the defensive tackles: Dontavius Russell, senior; Derrick Brown, junior; Andrew Williams, senior; Jauntavius Johnson, junior; Tyrone Truesdell, sophomore.  You also have some young guns to plug in during the lesser games to get some experience.  At end you have: Marlon Davidson, junior; Nick Coe, sophomore; T.D. Moultry, sophomore; Big Kat Bryant, sophomore. 

That is an embarrassment of riches for Auburn and the foundation of this defense.  The rest of the front seven looks almost as good with an all-senior linebacking corps in Deshaun Davis, senior; Darrell Williams, senior; Montavious Atkinson, senior.  I love Davis.  I love his energy and I love his motor.  He is one of my favorite linebackers to play at Auburn and I hope he stays healthy to lead this defense the whole season.  Auburn will definitely have to rebuild next season but it is sure nice to see three seniors on top of the depth chart starting this one off.

Finally we come to the secondary.  The Tigers basically have juniors Jamel Dean and Javaris Davis starting at one cornerback and nickel plus juniors Jeremiah Dinson and Daniel Thomas starting at the safety spots.  After that Auburn has a LOT of young guys.  There has been a lot of hype and coachspeak about all of these freshmen and sophomores but we really will not know what these guys are made of till they get on the field.  Auburn's fearsome front seven should be a big help to this crew.  That along with the new redshirt rule should allow the coaches to get a good look at all these guys.

Many Auburn fans have labeled Kevin Steele great as he has guided these defenses filled with Muschamp recruits.  He has done a good job but I will say again he has struggled every time Auburn has played a good passing team.  Luckily for him that has not happened very much.  Sooner or later Auburn will play a good passing team and he has to coach better.  Also after Auburn loses most of this front seven at the end of this season we will find out what kind of recruiter Steele is.  I will stop there though, let us enjoy this season and this hopefully great defense.

THE SCHEDULE
Here we are again, the next thing I have wrote about the most on this blog outside Gus Malzahn's offensive system is "The Curse of Jay Jacobs".  He is gone but his legacy remains in his idiotic decision to change and let Georgia and Bama be both at home (odd years) or both away (even years). It has basically rendered Auburn only able to compete for SEC titles in odd years.  He not only crippled all future even-year teams but ruined one of the best things about Auburn, i.e. having a great rival home game to end every season.  It is just sad these even years when Jordan Hare Stadium lies dark and dormant in November.

 

Auburn has not played a big game at home in an even year in November since Cam Newton and company beat Georgia to win the SEC West in 2010.  Right now it looks like they never will again thanks to Jay Jacobs "helping the conference".  I will continue to say that there is no way Bama would ever let Auburn and Tennessee be paired together like that on their schedule.  This single act by Jacobs will continue to haunt Auburn football for a long time.  I cannot describe the contempt I have for this short-sighted moronic decision.  I noticef people finally started talking about how bad this was for Auburn last season.  That is great guys but a little late. 

 

The rest of the SEC who hates Auburn and will never do anything to help us will never change this back so Auburn must and I mean must go at it a different way.  Auburn must move the Georgia game.  The Georgia game used to be a special rivalry but it has cost Auburn a lot.  No other SEC team has to play two teams even close to as historically tough as Bama and Georgia have been the last three weeks of the season.  It is literally impossible for Auburn to play good in the Georgia, Bama and SEC championship games.  That is three impossibly tough games in four weeks.  Auburn has won them before but it is rare.  Compare that to Bama who tried playing LSU in that spot a couple of years in the mid-2000s.  Boy they got that changed back QUICK. 

 

Auburn simply has a nearly impossible task this season even with a good team having to beat Georgia and Bama on the road at the end of the season.  People will point out the Tigers can lose to Georgia if they have no other SEC losses and beat Bama to take the West but those people do not know much about Auburn's history.  You can almost count on one hand the number of times Auburn has lost to Georgia and come back to beat Bama.  It has not happened many times.  That will be the strategy for this season though, make it to Tuscaloosa with a chance at winning the West.  Lets look at the rest of the schedule other than the end of it...

 

The difference between Auburn's tough schedule and Bama's ridiculously easy one comes down to two games.  Auburn plays two top five teams in Georgia and Washington while Bama plays an unranked Louisville team breaking in a new quarterback and the WORST team in the SEC last season in Tennessee.  Auburn also plays Tennessee as they rotate in while Bama gets Missouri.  The key thing though is Auburn has to play two of the nation's best teams while Bama does not.  It is just ludicrous, Bama fans will point to their road game in Baton Rouge but LSU lost a ton of players from last season and just made STEVE ENSMINGER their offensive coordinator???!!!???

 

Steve Ensminger could not coach an offense that could beat Nick $aban in a million years.  Auburn fans will just offer up the 2003 and 2008 seasons as evidence.  Back to Washington, Auburn will have their hands full with the Huskies who are probably the best team from the Pac-12.  Here are the quotes from a Washington season overview I read:  "The Huskies were one baffling loss away from a second straight conference title (last season), and they return an absurd amount of talent and experience...  UW returns a majority of last year’s difference-makers and, after a season opener against Auburn, could be double-digit favorite in every remaining game."

 

The Washington game could go either way.  My first reaction is Auburn had better watch out.  The Huskies are obviously a good team with a good coach and Auburn is playing in a place they have not played well in recently.  Auburn has also played really bad in their openers against Clemson in recent years.  However Auburn has a good team with hopefully a great defense.  It seems like the coaches are trying to avoid the typical Malzahn slow start but until you actually see that happen you have to go by the past.  I really just do not have a good feel for this game.  Obviously I think we will know a lot more about this Auburn team after.  The good thing is it is not a conference game.

 

Auburn should be favored in every game after Washington till travelling to Georgia.  Auburn is clearly better than just about every team in that stretch.  The Tigers will scrimmage against Alabama State and then kick off the conference season against LSU at home.  Auburn should win, see previous Steve Ensminger note.  Auburn then travels to Arkansas and Mississippi State with a home date against Southern Miss in the middle.  Arkansas is rebuilding and State has a new coaching staff.  Auburn is better than both those teams although State is probably the third best team in the conference and has a good quarterback and defensive line as well. 

 

State beat a good Auburn team in 2014 when Malzahn refused to throw the ball and gift-wrapped it for them but I still think Auburn is better team and should win.  After that Auburn welcomes Tennessee and Texas A&M to Jordan Hare with a road game in Oxford between.  Tennessee was the  worst team in the conference last season and Arkansas was not much better (thus their new coaches) while Ole Miss has been hurt by NCAA trouble.   Auburn should destroy these teams and let Gus pad his stats which he does every year against the teams he is better than. 

 

We then come to Amen Corner which I have already covered...  I guess it is prediction time.  I have correctly predicted Auburn's final record the last two seasons, 10-2 in 2017 and 8-4 in 2016.  I wish I could say it is my brilliance but it is simply Gus Malzahn.  After a few years it got pretty easy to predict Auburn under Malzahn.  It is a little bit tougher this season with so many questions on offense but not too tough.  Auburn will most likely lose two or three games.  Gus other than the 2010 "Cam-back" in Tuscaloosa has never beaten LSU, Georgia and Bama on the road as an assistant or head coach so unless something changes he will lose to Georgia and Bama. 

 

I will go with 10-2 again with a loss in Tuscaloosa but hopefully a bowl berth in another Big Six bowl game with hopefully a DECENT OPPONENT this time.  Back-to-back ten win seasons would be a huge accomplishment even with the hard time I give Gus Malzahn.  Of course I have never seen the SEC this bad two years in a row... Well there you go, another season preview and prediction to add to the hundreds of others.  Lets tee it up and get this thing going.  WAR EAGLE.