Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Game 11 Review: The Stage is Set AGAIN

Auburn 42  Louisiana Monroe 14.  Yes, once again this post is late and yes once again it is due to soccer tournaments!   It is hard to cover all these sports in one weekend.  Luckily this game was a snoozer that next to nobody cared about.  It was just a necessary step this weekend for Auburn and Bama to get to this week and the big showdown in the Iron Bowl.  So here we are, for the second time the Iron Bowl will decide the SEC West champion and possibly a lot more.  The stage is set again for another monumental game in this epic rivalry.  While I prefer the Georgia game to this hate fest, there is no getting around how big this game and how great this rivalry is when both teams are good. 

There is really not much to say about the Louisiana Monroe game.  The team was flat and there was probably no avoiding that but everything ended up looking right by the end.  Kerryon turned in another good performance.  Jarrett Stidham despite a few mistakes had a another good day and his favorite targets, Darius Slayton and Ryan Davis, once again did most of the work catching the ball.  The offensive line was solid and well as the defense although watching Jeff Holland go down was simply terrifying.  A couple of other defenders got dinged up as well.  The only casualty right now appears to be Tre' Williams which stinks but hopefully it is not any worse.  That was pretty much the only thing I cared about in this game outside of getting the win was injuries.

Initial thoughts on Iron Bowl... I am a little disturbed from surfing different Auburn sites.  It just seems a lot of Auburn fans seem to think that because of great wins in 2010 and 2013 that some mystical forces are guaranteeing an Auburn win.  It just does not work that way.  Auburn won in 2010 because of a good team and the greatest quarterback in Auburn history.  Auburn won in 2013 because of an incredible playmaking offense and opportunistic defensive and special teams play.  It was not mystical forces.  This year's Auburn offense despite their stat padding against the dregs of the conference is not as good on offense as the 2013 team at that point.  Also other teams now know all of Malzahn's tendencies especially Bama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt who started Malzhan's downfall stopping Auburn's 2013 offense in the second half of the national championship.

The good thing is the defense is miles ahead of the 2013 defense.  However this defense has shown over the past two seasons it is susceptible to the big pass play against good teams.  Auburn has just been lucky not to play many of those.  Jalen Hurts for all his detractors is a playmaker, a lot like Nick Marshall.  He has not lost one game except for the national championship game where the defense let him down as he has put Bama back on top.  The guy is a winner.  I would much rather face Bama's backup.  It is unbelievable the complaining I hear from Bama fans about this guy.  He is on his way to maybe becoming the winningest quarterback in Bama's long and storied history.

Bama's offensive line and running backs are as good or better than Georgia and their wide receivers are better.  The Auburn defense as good as it is will have their work cut out for them.  On the other side, Bama's defense is a little down due to injuries.  However people are also taking this too far.  The Bama defense might not be it's usual juggernaut self but it is still very good.  You also have to look at the Gus Malzahn factor.  People are completely overreacting to the Georgia game.  As I wrote, that was the perfect situation for Auburn and while the offensive coaches called a better game they still made mistakes in the red zone that resulted in field goals not touchdowns.  Auburn feasted on Georgia mistakes to blow the game open.  I do not believe Bama will make those mistakes.

Prediction?  Auburn is good enough to beat Bama at home.  I believe that.  However right now unfortunately if I have to pick I just do not think Malzahn has changed enough to beat Bama.  He is still not balanced enough despite the yardage totals.  Auburn pads those passing stats by making every jet sweep a pass and all the swing passes that are basically runs.  Even in the Georgia game, Jarrett Stidham did not do many straight drop back passes. 

I believe straight passing is the only way to beat Bama outside the rare exception like the 2013 team.  I do not believe all of Auburn's motion and misdirection will work against Bama.  Basically in my gut I still do not believe in Gus Malzahn on offense.  It will take more than the Georgia game to get me to forget the Clemson and LSU games and three seasons of terrible offensive plans and play calling in big games.  I hope I am wrong.  I will be there to find out.  It is time for the IRON BOWL.

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