Saturday, October 31, 2015

Game 8 Review: Field Goals Not Touchdowns

Ole Miss 27  Auburn 19.  The 2015 Auburn Tiger football team fought hard again and came up short again.  It was one of the strangest games I have ever watched.  Auburn had a lot of big plays but just could not put it together except for one drive.  It is the exact opposite of most of Auburn's games this year where the Tigers could not buy a big play.  I think one of the biggest factors is apparently Peyton Barber was injured last week and he has been Auburn's bell cow in converting on 3rd and short and in the red zone.  Quarterback Sean White was also injured and that not only effected his play but effected the play calling.  Auburn basically just held up a sign saying they were going to run the ball whenever anybody named Johnson was playing quarterback.

Credit where credit is due though, Ole Miss was the better team.  They are a much better passing team than Auburn and have a better defense.  In the end that was the difference.  Quarterback Chad Kelly did throw two interceptions but also threw for over 400 yards (!!!).  The Rebels also had more yards rushing than Auburn.  Auburn's defense played better with Carl Lawson but still gave up nearly 30 points and almost 600 yards of offense.  Also for the second week in a row the Auburn defense let the other team drive down the field at the end of the game and chew up almost all the clock.  Finally on the Rebels side it was a day of redemption for receiver Laquon Treadwell who suffered that gruesome injury in a loss to Auburn last year.  He had the winning touchdown and a team-high 114 yards receiving.

THE GOOD
I guess for the second week in a row I will credit the special teams for doing their job well.  Auburn kicker Daniel Carlson hit all four of his field goal attempts including one for 52 yards.  Punter Kevin Phillips averaged almost 46 yards a punt and Ole Miss had no return yardage at all.  That is a pretty good day for the special teams.  Unfortunately when you start out talking about how great the special teams looked you know it was not a very good day for the other units.  I tell you though, as you see special team gaffes all over the country while watching the highlights you sure learn to not take it for granted.  Bad special teams play can and will lose any team any game.

Another good thing for Auburn today was the emergence of running back Jovon Robinson subbing in for Peyton Barber.  Kerryon Johnson is a good back but he is not ready to run 20 times between the tackles.  The jury is still out on Roc Thomas in that area as well so Robinson had to shoulder the load.  He had some great runs including four in a row for 47 yards and ended up with 91 yards on 18 carries.   It was good to see Robinson get to contribute and finally flash some of that talent that made him the best JUCO running back in the country.  The other big weapon for Auburn was again Ricardo Louis.  Auburn's best wide receiver had four catches for 137 yards and a touchdown.  

THE BAD
Even with Jovon Robinson's good day Auburn could not consistently run the football or throw short.  While that opened up some big plays it stunted Auburn's consistency.  The Ole Miss defense forced Auburn and quarterback Sean White to look for longer passes.  This allowed the Rebels to get a good rush on White as he tried to find receivers open downfield and get several hurries and sacks.  This was also evident on White's stat line as he did not even complete half of his attempted passes.  He still had 250 yards passing but missed on a lot of conversion plays (including two horrible passes on fourth down plays).  In fact, the Tigers were 2 of 15 on third down conversions and as Gus Malzahn said after the game, that is not going to beat anybody.  

Ole Miss also seemed to know when the Tigers were going to run and they stuffed a lot of Tigers runs for a loss or a short gain.  The Rebels gave up some big passing plays but for the most part shut down the Auburn rushing attack.  Of course Gus Malzahn and the Auburn brain trust seemed to make things easier for Ole Miss by again telegraphing run plays by putting a Johnson at quarterback.  It seems Auburn did that because Sean White was hurt but it looked like it backfired to me.  The "Wildcat" formation can still work against weaker teams but I cannot remember the last time it worked against anybody good.  All of this plus Auburn mistakes killed the Tigers in the red zone.  The Tigers kept settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.  The biggest mistake was a blatant hold when it appeared Marcus Davis had tied the game for Auburn.  

THE UGLY
This Auburn team has not quit like the 2012 bunch however things are still pretty bad on the plains.  The Tigers led by coach Gus Malzahn have lost seven out of their last eight conference games and that is ugly.  They are 4-4 and 1-4 this season and need two wins to just make a bowl game.  They will probably get one against Idaho but are down to either winning in College Station or beating Georgia at home to get the other.  From this perch, Georgia at home looks like Auburn's best chance at a meaningful win this season.  Gus Malzahn continues to talk like the coach of a team that everyone knew would be rebuilding instead of the contender Auburn was supposed to be.  I still think the root of Auburn's problems to start this season was awful offensive coaching by Malzahn and his staff.

He has improved due to desperation and has thrown the ball more but it still seems Auburn will never have a balanced offense under him.  These problems are not going to magically go away as Auburn still has nothing resembling a tight end and have a long way to go to have a decent SEC H-back.  As I have said all season, these two positions are absolutely essential to having a good rushing attack.  Beyond that SEC defenses seem to know all of Malzahn's tendencies including pass routes and have exploited that and will continue to.  It sure seems like Malzahn is going to continue run this same old playbook for the duration of his career at Auburn.  Even with better blocking I wonder how successful it can be?  And that is just the problems on offense...

THE LAST WORD
I have not really looked around the SEC while surveying the damage at Auburn the last month.  In that time things have pretty much come into focus especially in the East.  It sure looks like the Florida Gators will win the SEC East especially after the beatdown they put on Georgia today.  In the West I think it will once again be Bama coming out.  I hate to say it but I do not think LSU quarterback Brandon Harris is good enough to beat Bama in Tuscaloosa even with Leonard Fournette.  However I do think the Bayou Bengals will take down Ole Miss to open the way for Bama to get to Atlanta.  It is just turning out to be another awful season for Auburn fans as a battered Tiger team heads to College Station.

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