Outside the big picture, can Auburn's young inexperienced defensive tackles step up and play with the big boys? Can Auburn's young inexperienced tight ends and H-backs step up and adequately fill their roles? Finally, can Jeremy Johnson step up and be the quarterback everyone rooting for Auburn thinks he can be. I have rarely seen a team with so much talent both playing and coaching yet have so many questions. Of course that is all internal, externally Auburn must take on the best division of teams in college football. There are no easy outs in the SEC West with the rise of the Mississippi schools and Arkansas' resurgence last season.
I guess the first place to start is after letting it settle for awhile, what happened to the 2014 Auburn Tigers? I think most of us saw the cracks appearing that I listed in my preview last year. First, it was obvious to everyone except the Auburn offensive coaches that the offensive line while good would not be the monster it had been in 2013 and Auburn would sorely miss Jay Prosch. The thought was that Gus Malzahn would call a more balanced offense which he did not till the Bama game. Auburn still had good offensive numbers but stubborn play calling factored into several losses.
Next there was the obvious leadership issues with seniors getting arrested and suspended. Everyone hoped it would somehow get fixed but it never did. Auburn suffered from a lack of leadership on both sides of the ball all season. Finally, there was just a complete lack of coaching or adjustments on the defensive side of the ball. Coach Ellis Johnson turned in one of the all-time worst jobs of defensive coaching in Auburn history.
I will never forget Bama All-American and NFL first round draft choice Amari Cooper lining up at a critical moment in the Iron Bowl and literally running a simple go or post route almost uncovered for an easy touchdown. There were no obstructions off the line, no tight coverage, no double coverage, no special treatment at all for the best offensive player on Bama's team. I may be an obscure Monday morning quarterbacking blogger but there was simply no excuse in the world for that play by any defensive coach at any level.
Thank goodness, this problem from last year's team was addressed as well as it could possibly be addressed with the hire of coach Will Muschamp. I have always liked coach Muschamp and was shocked it went as bad as it did for him at Florida. However I still think the guy is a great defensive coordinator. The Auburn defense will be better because of him. Unfortunately though I have spent the offseason cautioning fellow Auburn fans to not expect miracles. There is only so much he can do with the players he inherits. I just hope he stays long enough to coach a team of guys he has a hand in bringing in.
All the press on defense has gone to returning stud Carl Lawson and incoming stud Byron Cowart. These defensive ends plus senior DaVonte Lambert will play a huge role if Auburn is to field a decent defense this season. Unfortunately one of the biggest questions marks as I have asked already is the defensive tackles. Only junior Montravious Adams has any experience at all. It is very tough to win a championship with so much inexperience in the middle of your defensive line.
Things look better elsewhere with Auburn returning senior linebackers Kris Frost and Cassanova McKinzy. The hope is that coach Muschamp can get more out of these guys than the previous staff. Auburn has some depth with Justin Garrett (if he can stay healthy which he never has) and Tre Williams plus highly touted newcomer Jeffery Holland. It is still a pretty light crew but again the hope is that better coaching will help.
The secondary looks pretty good. There are some depth concerns but hopefully there is some decent talent and good experience in probable senior starters Jonathan Jones and Blake Countess at the corners and safeties Jonathan "Rudy" Ford and Tray Matthews plus Josh Holsey at the nickel. I think Auburn will play more nickel than a third linebacker. There looks to be some guys with potential behind these guys in Carlton Davis, Nick Ruffin, Stephen Roberts and Tim Irvin. Of course this all sends us back to defensive end where a good pass rush always makes the secondary a lot better.
This is not a great defense by any means but if the defensive line is decent with a good pass rush it will look a lot better. If Lawson gets hurt again or Cowart fizzles his first year or the tackles are terrible the defense will have problems. Now hopefully it will not look as bad as it did last year but I do have to say that Florida's defense gave up about as many yards to Bama last year as Auburn... Everyone likes Muschamp but he is not a miracle worker. Auburn's overall strategy looks to be like the old Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts where you get the lead and let a smaller fast defense rush the quarterback.
On offense it starts with one of the most anticipated quarterbacks in Auburn's long and storied history, junior Jeremy Johnson. Cam quickly got the press but got nowhere near the preseason buzz that Johnson has. I do not think any Auburn quarterback has gotten the preseason kudos Johnson has, I sure hope the kid can handle it because it is hard to not let all that go to your head. Johnson is the dream quarterback though standing 6-5 and weighing in at 240 lbs with a strong arm and great accuracy and touch.
I thought he was the best quarterback last year and am more than ready to see him this year especially after two years of an undersized and erratic Nick Marshall. Again as I have said many times I just hope that Gus Malzahn will adjust his run-heavy offensive philosophy to be more balanced and use Johnson more like he did with Cam Newton. That never seemed to happen with Nick Marshall no matter how improved at passing they kept saying he was.
Auburn returns another strong offensive line anchored by junior tackles Shon Coleman and Avery Young. These guys are not great but they are very good. At the guards, sophomore Braden Smith and junior Alex Kozan or senior Devonte Danzey will take over. Finally at center, it will either be senior Xavier Dampeer or sophomore Austin Golson. This is a strong group with some depth as evidenced by the position battles still going. The depth is not near as good at the tackles but the interior of the line looks very strong.
Again though while this is a very good line, it is not going to be the 2013 line. I keep telling people that was a once-in-a-lifetime type of line. You just have to be truly great to run the ball on good teams when they expect you to. I do think this group could be near dominating running a more balanced offense featuring a great quarterback that can see the field. Shon Coleman struggled against good pass rushers last year so that will be something to keep an eye on but hopefully he will improve some and along with Johnson's quick release be able to mitigate that weakness.
He has some good targets to throw to. It was really hard for me to watch Auburn not use enough two of the most athletic talented wide receivers to ever play on the plains last season in Sammie Coates and Duke Williams. Luckily, Williams returns this year if he can keep it together. He is obviously the best receiver on the team and Auburn will definitely need him in good standing and healthy to compete for a championship.
The next biggest playmaker is Ricardo Louis who will need to be much more consistent. The same can be said of Melvin Ray. He is a guy who has made big plays but must be more consistent and the coaches also cannot forget about him for weeks and give him some targets each week. I think the most important guy after that will be Marcus Davis, he has before and can be the Wes Welker possession-type receiver. That is a big role in a good passing attack.
There is a lot of talk and hype about several other guys including: Jason Smith, Myron Burton, Darius Slayton, Tony Stevens and Stanton Truitt but right now it is just talk and hype. Auburn will need for a couple of these guys to step up especially if there are some injuries. However these guys look to have a lot of potential and I guess that is all you can ask for when you get to the second and third string guys. Hopefully coach Dameyune Craig will step up and stop the trend of Auburn wide receiver busts.
The only glaring problem on the offense is the complete lack of experience at tight end and H-back. Auburn has not won many championships without an experienced and talented tight end. Auburn lost all of its experience at tight end with senior C.J. Uzomah and Brandon Fulse departing last year. Auburn's only two tight ends right now are freshmen Chris Laye and Jalen Harris. Sorry folks, this is a huge yellow flag. These guys have absolutely no experience at all.
I have read several times that there is a huge difference between a Malzahn offense running the ball using a tight end and running the ball behind a three wide receiver set. Again though this weakness can be mitigated by running a more balanced offense. Everyone points to Malzahn's time at Tulsa and Arkansas State but at Auburn he has been run heavy all the time except for the second half of 2010 with Cam. Malzahn also had a bad habit last season of calling too many trick plays or misdirections rather than just calling a straight drop-back pass. Hopefully with Johnson he will have more confidence to do that.
The Tigers have the same issue at H-back where there is also only two freshmen. I feel a little better because it is an easier position to be good at early and feel a little more confident in the candidates being pretty good players. Again though, there is no substitute for experience and Auburn just does not have any experience at these two positions. As with defensive tackle, it is very hard to win a championship starting green freshman at these positions.
Finally on offense we come to running back. Auburn looks to be in good shape here with sophomores Roc Thomas and Peyton Barber plus JUCO transfer Jovon Robinson and the highly touted freshman from my neck of the woods, Kerryon Johnson. There is not much to complain about here, there is talent and depth. In the spring it appeared Jovon Robinson was the man but throughout the fall it has sounded like Thomas and Barber were the top two. One or more of these guys will get the job done and have a great season.
This is a very good team. I am accused of being negative at times but it is all about where you are coming from. If you are just concerned about Auburn having a good team with a shot at a championship then rest easy, this is that team. However when I look at the team I judge it by if it is good enough to win a Southeastern Conference championship. That is the standard. I think this team is good enough but like every other team it will be competing with Auburn will need some young players to step up.
Now to the schedule... Well it is an odd year so that is good. Odd years are the only years now that Auburn realistically has a chance at an SEC title since Jay Jacobs let the SEC schedule Georgia and Bama on the same home and away rotation. It is hard enough to beat Georgia and Bama any way but nearly impossible to beat them both on the road in the same season. Only a few rare exceptions will ever do it therefore even years are a lot less exciting at Auburn now. So with that said Auburn better take full advantage of the odd years especially when they have a good team like this year.
Auburn starts out with a pretty decent test in Louisville and Bobby Petrino. They are a good team but if Auburn plays solid they should win. Auburn then gets a breather in Jacksonville State before heading to Baton Rouge. LSU returns to its old spot on the Auburn schedule which is the third game of the year and I like it. This used to be Tennessee in that third spot and it always showed which team would be a contender or pretender. Now the loser can come back ala 2013 but it makes it a lot harder. This will be one of the key games in Auburn's season.
Auburn will return home for a tough game with Mississippi State. State will come to play and give Auburn a tough one but they lost a lot of experienced talent last year. I think Auburn is a little better and is at home so they should win this game. Auburn then gets another easy one with San Jose State and a bye week before a Thursday trap game at Kentucky. Kentucky has given Auburn problems in recent years beating the Tigers at home in 2009 and nearly spoiling the perfect season in 2010. This game will be closer than expected but you have to favor Auburn.
Auburn then hits the gauntlet, the real meat of the schedule. There is no hiding or skating by in the SEC West especially at Auburn where you are in the SEC West and play Georgia every year. Any leadership issues or problems with your team will be exposed ala 2014. I expect Auburn to be undefeated or have one loss at this point. Anything worse will be a huge disappointment and could spell big trouble because Auburn then plays Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Idaho and Bama in consecutive weeks. Only Idaho might be easy.
On the road at Arkansas will be another huge trap as Bret Bielema has made Auburn his #1 target. This one will be another moment of truth for this Tiger team. Auburn should handle Ole Miss but it will not be easy. Auburn will then go on the road again to College Station. They won a close one there in 2013 but have lost twice at home to the Aggies. Texas A&M always seems to play well against Auburn. I am just not sure how good the Aggies are but of course they did not look too good last year when they upset the Tigers. Auburn will most likely be the favorite but this one will be tough.
That brings us to Georgia. This will be Auburn's toughest game of the season in my opinion. Especially since Auburn will be coming off three tough games in a row while Georgia will have a bye week and a home game against Kentucky before Auburn. You also have to favor the Dawgs in this one when you once again factor in that Coach Mark Richt outside of two great Auburn teams and two great last second finishes has absolutely owned Auburn during his tenure. The Bulldogs embarrassed the Tigers again last season.
Auburn will then hopefully have an easy one in Idaho before closing with the Iron Bowl. There is not much point in trying to scout Bama. They will be very good again. They have brought in so many good players for so many years in a row they are just going to be good. Add to that the fact that Auburn has not beaten the Tide by more than 10 points since 1969 and you can pretty much guarantee this will a tough close game that will go down to the wire... again.
I think the likely scenario is that Auburn loses at least two games. I am predicting 10-2 and 6-2 in the SEC. I do not know if that will be good enough in the West or not. Probably not but it depends on whether one of those losses is to Bama. It is definitely possible Auburn could do better and as we found out last year they could do worse. However if they can get at least ten wins that is a pretty good season against this schedule and would mean that Auburn did indeed step up. Lets tee it up and find out... War Eagle.
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