Last year my thoughts on the state of the program was this:
"Overall the state of the program is what I would term tenuous. One of the definitions of that word is: "a : having little substance or strength : flimsy, weak
I then noted as many others had Malzahn's inability to develop a quarterback or any semblance of a real passing game over the middle school level. That did not change this season and I seriously doubt it ever will. Auburn has a service academy offense with better players and a few more passes. However Auburn only passes good when it is running all over somebody. The offense was better this past year than 2015 because Auburn was a better running team AND the Mississippi schools were worse. In fact lets quickly review last season...
THE PREVIOUS SEASON
Auburn lost to every good team on the schedule outside a win without touchdowns over a dysfunctional LSU team. This was mainly because Auburn cannot pass the ball against good teams.
There was of course the opening debacle against Clemson that displayed some of the worst offensive strategy and coaching in the history of football. This including rotating three quarterbacks and running back Kamryn Pettway not playing. Auburn then lost to Texas A&M in a game that nobody talks about because a healthy Sean White was completely ineffective for three quarters before getting relieved. Oh I forgot this is before the coaching staff realized that Kamryn Pettway should have been a starter at running back even though they had spring and fall practice to figure that out.
That paragraph contains a staggering amount of offensive incompetence that was then repeated at the end of the season against Georgia and Bama. Auburn was never going to beat Bama but still managed to embarrass themselves on offense nonetheless. The Auburn offense only managed 60 yards and one first down in four quarters (the second half against Georgia and the first half against Bama). The worst game of the season was definitely Georgia although Clemson was close. Auburn managed to lose to a below average Georgia team that did not even score an offensive touchdown. It was the most unbelievable show of offensive incompetence I have ever seen.
It was not that Auburn just lost these games it was the losses coupled with the horrendous coaching that made them so bad. However all the Auburn sites and many of the fans seemingly did not care as Auburn beat a couple of patsies in Arkansas State and Alabama A&M between those horrible losses and went on a seemingly legendary six game winning streak in the middle of the season. During this legendary streak as stated above Auburn beat a dysfunctional LSU team with no touchdowns (LSU fired Les Miles immediately following the game) and then beat the three worst teams in the West in the Mississippi schools and Arkansas plus the second worst team in the East in Vanderbilt and finally beat Lousiana Monroe in there as well.
It is great Auburn won those six games but it was so overblown by every Auburn site that you got sick of hearing about it. The Tigers finished 8-4, 5-3 in the SEC and lucked into the Sugar Bowl since the SEC was so bad this season. Auburn then got blown out by Oklahoma in New Orleans. The official alibi from the coaches and propagated through every Auburn site was Auburn ONLY lost because quarterback Sean White was hurt (they never explained Texas A&M). It definitely hurt losing White and Pettway at the end but that was still no excuse for not beating Georgia.
It just does not excuse the horrible play calling and head scratching decisions made by the coaches in Auburn's biggest games this season. This leads us to our next area of review...
THE COACHES
As I noted above, Gus gets rid of anybody in disagreement with him and has filled his offensive staff with mostly "yes men". Last season he got rid of Dameyune Craig and replaced him with his former player Kodi Burns and he got rid of J.B. Grimes and brought in old friend Herb Hand. This season he finally sent the unqualified Rhett Lashlee packing (but only after making sure he had a job) but brought in a slightly updated version of Lashlee in Chip Lindsey. Currently he is now in the process of getting rid of special teams and tight ends coach Scott Fountain and will likely bring in another old friend. Running backs coach Tim Horton is still around but the rumors are he is hearing the footsteps as well.
The masses have mostly embraced Lindsey even with his previous ties to Malzahn. The only thing that matters though is IF Lindsey is qualified to coach up a decent passing game then will he be allowed to change the offense? It does not really matter who calls the bleeping plays if the play caller is limited to what Auburn has done on offense the last four years. The amount of true passing plays called that were not that ridiculous double-play action one Malzahn calls every game or the wheel route or the bubble screen are far and few inbetween.
Malzahn and Lashlee's biggest problem was they simply could not teach a quarterback to read a defense so in accordance with that deficiency the Auburn passing game has stayed about the middle school level. Gus has not allowed the offense to change at all since he took over as head coach. Is he finally desperate enough to let Lindsey change the offense? I WILL HAVE TO SEE IT TO BELIEVE IT.
On defense everyone is singing Kevin Steele's praises. I was encouraged by the improved linebacker play. Auburn has not had that in a long time. However while Steele did a good job I am not sure I would go to great. Auburn got shredded by the few good passing teams they played. I think Auburn was fortunate that they did not play more. Also the defense was on the shoulders of fourth year stars Carl Lawson and Montravious Adams. I think Auburn would have been pretty good regardless of the coordinator with those two guys healthy. I think there is still a lot of room for improvement on the defense especially against good passing teams.
The defensive coaching staff saw only one change after the season and that was veteran defensive backs coach Greg Brown coming over from Missouri to replace Wesley McGriff who went to Ole Miss to be defensive coordinator. That leaves Steele as coordinator along with Rodney Garner on the line, Travis Williams with linebackers and Brown with the secondary. It is a pretty good defensive staff and I hope they can continue to build on their success this past season.
THE RECRUITING CLASS
Malzahn and company did another good job this year in recruiting with another top ten class. It is the one thing Malzahn has kept doing right even if he cannot develop many of the good players he brings in. The jewel of this class was five star offensive tackle Calvin Ashley. I am praying the kid is just close to being as good as advertised. There is a big difference in five star players and getting one that is an offensive tackle is a big deal. A five star receiver is nearly meaningless at Auburn but a really good offensive tackle is a game changer.
A good quarterback is obviously a game changer as well and the most well known player in this year's class is Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham. Any chances at Auburn being a better team and possibly the fate of the Malzahn himself rest on this kid. Of course a lot of that goes back to the passing game coaching but it looks like this guy has the tools. The coaches are already blathering on about a "quarterback competition" and I guess they have to do that but if Jarrett Stidham is not Auburn's starting quarterback next season then something has gone very wrong.
Stidham enrolled early and the coaches will have all spring with him. Other four-star early enrollees include: offensive guard Nick Brahms, athlete Malcolm Askew and linebacker Kenny Britt. All will add needed depth along with three star early enrollees Salvatore Cannella at tight end, Chandler Wooten at linebacker and athlete Malik Willis. I think just about all of these guys labeled "athlete" will be defensive backs or possibly a linebackers.
Players coming in this fall along with Ashley include the following four stars: linebacker Tadarian Moultry, running back Devan Barrett, defensive end Markaviest Bryant, offensive tackle Austin Troxell, athlete Alaric Williams and wide receiver Noah Igbinoghene. The class was rounded out with the following three stars: safety Carlito Gonzalez, defensive tackle Tyrone Truesdell, athlete JaTarvious Whitlow, defensive tackle Alec Jackson, safety Jordyn Peters, cornerback Traivon Leonard, tight end John Samuel Shenker, long snapper Bill Taylor and kicker Anders Carlson, brother of current kicker Daniel Carlson.
That leaves the breakdown of the class looking like this: 1 quarterback, 1 running back, 1 wide receiver, 3 offensive linemen, 2 tight ends, 1 long snapper, 1 kicker, 3 defensive linemen, 3 linebackers, 3 defensive backs along with 4 athletes that will mostly like help in the secondary or at linebacker. I have to say that while it appears the class is not quite as impressive as some of the last few years I do like the breakdown.
The coaches were able to bring in some impact players and add some solid depth at each position. The biggest factor along with quarterback is if the linemen offensive and defensive pan out. They are always the most important to me because it all starts with them. I am also hoping that one of these tight ends stick around as Auburn outside Jalen Harris has not been able to keep any other tight ends on campus for very long the last few years. If kicker Anders Carlson is even half as good as his brother he could be the biggest signee of the class.
It is nice to add a four star running back and wide receiver when you are already pretty stocked at those positions. Auburn proved this season that depth is certainly needed at running back. I am hoping that bringing in ten guys to bolster the back seven on defense will work where the coaches can concentrate on other positions next season. Finally you always have to hope that some of these three stars turns into those big success stories that the people who dismiss recruiting rankings always talk about. All in all it is a good solid class. Malzahn has now put together several years of solid recruiting. Now he just has to develop them and this is where he has come up painfully short especially on offense, his supposed specialty.
THE SCHEDULE NEXT SEASON
We have reviewed the previous season, the coaching staff and the current recruiting class, now it is time to look at the final piece of the puzzle that we know about next season, the schedule. Again of course I will start with athletic director Jay Jacob's foolhardy mistake of letting the SEC put Georgia and Bama on the same home and away rotation. It will continue to hurt Auburn for many years to come. Auburn has almost no chance of competing for the SEC title in even years when it has to go on the road at the end of the season against Georgia and Bama. Therefore Auburn almost has to beat Georgia and Bama this season especially after losing for three years in a row to both.
The eight game conference schedule with 14 teams will continue to help or hurt as well. While Texas A&M and Missouri have been successful since joining the SEC, overall I think the addition was a bad move and continues to hurt in less visible ways like football scheduling. It means Auburn only plays every team from the East other than Georgia once every six years. Fourteen teams just does not work well and it does not look like there will be two more great programs available anytime soon to make it sixteen. This last expansion was about nothing but greed.
The only thing that would have made expansion a positive for Auburn would have been moving to the East. It is Jay Jacob's biggest missed opportunity and blunder. Auburn could be back in the East with all of Auburn's traditional rivals in Florida, Georgia and Tennessee and out from under Bama's thumb plus not being stuck with the Mississippi schools and ex-Big 12 teams.
Sound far-fetched? Tell that to Texas A&M who is out from under Texas' thumb and regardless of what else bad happens is very happy about that. The Auburn administration needs to continually relentlessly pursue moving to the East and make Bama pick between Auburn and Tennessee. Call their bluff and if they picked Tennessee in that scenario then like Texas A&M and Texas things will be just fine. Unfortunately it takes a leader with guts and vision to make a move like that and Auburn is fresh out.
The scheduling problem will remain one of the biggest factors on whether Auburn has a chance at a conference title every year. I am definitely for a nine game schedule to alleviate this problem and getting Bama and Georgia out of this same rotation plus making every team's conference schedule more equal. Until then you will this same commentary from me in this space every year...
Back to next season, Auburn also gets the Mississippi schools at home. The Mississippi schools are both rebuilding so Auburn should win those games. Auburn also gets a gift in a down Missouri program rolling on to the schedule. That should be another win. Auburn should also obviously win against Georgia Southern, Mercer and Louisiana Monroe. That gives Auburn their six wins right there. Auburn should also be favored on the road against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Those two games will be huge.
The rest of the schedule is a bit tougher. There is Bama and Georgia as mentioned above plus Auburn has to go on the road to Clemson and LSU. I think the Tigers actually have a decent chance against Clemson as those Tigers lost a lot off this season's national champion squad and considering the fact Clemson has won three in a row against Auburn. I think Auburn has less of a chance against LSU as Malzahn has been blown out every single time he has gone to Baton Rouge as a coordinator or head coach. Other than the second half rally in 2013, a Malzahn team has never shown a heart beat in Baton Rouge. Look at the scores in 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2015. I think that is a loss.
I actually think Auburn is once again better than Georgia and might play well simply due to the law of averages and the number of times they have played bad against Georgia. Of course Auburn has played their worst game of the season three years in a row against Georgia so until that changes I guess you have to pick the Bulldogs. It has taken two of the better teams in Auburn history in 2010 and 2013 to barely squeak by the Tide. Bama has won every other game against Malzahn so I think you once against have to favor the Tide as there appears to be no end to their dominance with another #1 recruiting class in the house. They were turning away four star players on signing day... it is simply nauseating.
So with all that said I see Auburn right now going 9-3 next season. As long as those nine wins include a win against Georgia then Malzahn is safe and will probably get another huge raise and extension even though he will most likely lose to LSU and Bama again. From what I read on other Auburn sites we just need to be happy with that and not expect more. That would be a good season but next season will be one of those few where Auburn has the talent and the schedule to challenge for an SEC title. The difference in good programs and average programs is making the most of those types of seasons. Auburn has taken advantage of these opportunities many times in the past but desperately needs to this next season.
AUBURN HAS THE TALENT BUT IT NEEDS THE COACHING and that is the state of the program from where I sit.
