Last year, the state of the program still seemed good after hiring Will Muschamp to fix the defense and bringing in a decent recruiting class. Auburn seemed poised to rebound in 2015 and put some of the glaring problems from 2014 behind them. Alas that was not the case and the 2015 season was even worse with the offense imploding and the defense not improving a whole lot. I said in this post last year "Coach Malzahn must make some changes. He stubbornly continued to try and run the ball even when it was clearly not working and refused many times to just call a straight pass in critical situations. Everyone expects this to change... However I am not convinced yet things will change."
Things did not change. In fact, I am now convinced that Gus Malzahn will never wander far from the 2013 playbook. I believe the only thing he will ever run is his power running Wing-T offense from the shotgun formation with a few passes thrown in, a "run-based play-action offense" as he has said many times. He is just too stubborn to change no matter the circumstances. I do not have a problem with that offense except when the team does not have the personnel to run it and this year Auburn did NOT have the personnel to run it, i.e. there was no experienced H-back or tight end.
On top of that, Malzahn and quarterback coach Rhett Lashlee miserably failed getting quarterback Jeremy Johnson ready for the season. Either that or they both miserably failed evaluating Johnson in the three years he has been on campus. It has simply been unbelievable to me that all the blame has been placed on Johnson by the majority of Auburn fans while no one holds the guy making four million dollars to coach him up accountable at all???!!!??? The buck stops with the head coach.
Auburn was terrible on offense all season starting with the quarterback and continuing with the play calling. Malzahn repeatedly ran the ball from three-wide receiver formations and had one of the least productive passing games in the nation. The defense was almost as bad even with Muschamp. This all added up to a 6-6 season that included losses to LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama. People like to point out how close the Tigers were in some of those losses but on the other hand Auburn should have lost to Jax State so it goes both ways.
Things got worse as the season ended when defensive coordinator Will Muschamp became the head coach at South Carolina and took Travarius Robinson, Lance Thompson and many of Auburn's off-the-field analysts with him. Next came the news that both junior offensive tackles would be leaving early for the NFL plus their position coach J.B. Grimes left as well. Finally the news hit that Dameyune Craig would forsake his alma mater and head to LSU in a lateral coaching move.
Auburn did grab LSU defensive coordinator Kevin Steele to replace Will Muschamp and brought in a couple of experienced coaches in Herb Hand and Wesley McGriff. However they also brought in a couple of inexperienced former players as well in Travis Williams and Kodi Burns. I love both of these guys but they are very young. As the dust settles, it sure looks like Auburn lost more than it gained. There certainly appears to be something wrong when you see this much attrition in this small a time period. The loss of both offensive tackles might be the worst blow though. On the positive side, as documented in my last post at least defensive end Carl Lawson decided to stay along with defensive tackle Montravius Adams. That will be a huge boost to the defense.
It was a rough season and the fear was all the turmoil would also destroy Auburn's recruiting class. Fortunately it did not, thanks mainly to the departed Dameyune Craig and coach Rodney Garner. These two guys and the rest of the staff might have done their best job yet on the recruiting trail as they held the class together and ended with it ranked in the top ten. That is an incredible accomplishment when you consider all that has transpired.
Even more kudos have to given to Craig who helped bring in maybe the best wide receiver class in the country to a school that clearly does not throw the ball much. It was one of the most impressive jobs of recruiting I have ever seen. I am not sure why any wide receiver would come to Auburn, a place that has only had TWO 1000 yard receiving seasons IN THE HISTORY OF THE SCHOOL...
Let's take a closer look at the 2016 Auburn recruiting class... First it was obvious that Auburn better find a few more options at quarterback and they better be mobile. The coaches checked that box with JUCO John Franklin and phenom Woody Barrett, both of them dual threat quarterbacks. I am not sure Auburn could have done much better here. They got the JUCO who hopefully can help some immediately and a good one to put in the pipeline for next year or the year after.
Elsewhere on offense, the Tigers added running back Malik Miller from my neck of the woods here in Madison, Alabama and tight end Landon Rice. Auburn is pretty set at running back but you always want to get at least one guy in the pipeline. Tight end is an urgent need so I hope Rice is more ready to go by next fall than the guys currently on the roster were this last season and as I am writing this post I see that sophomore tight end Chris Laye is leaving. That leaves Auburn with only two inexperienced tight ends again. Auburn did not recruit any more H-backs but I think Chandler Cox and Kamryn Pettway should be better this year after a brutal learning experience last season.
As mentioned before, former coach Dameyune Craig was able to bring in an amazing wide receiver class including four stars Kyle Davis, Nate Craig-Myers and Eli Stove plus three star Marquis McClain. I wish I could be more excited but Auburn simply does not throw the ball that much. I hope these guys are good blockers because that is what they will do more than anything. This past season Auburn averaged throwing the ball only 22 times per game which ranked 116 out of 128 teams. Also, many of those passes were short passes that were basically running plays. Triple option Georgia Tech averaged 17 passes per game. Bama was right where I think a balanced team needs to be and that is averaging at least 30 throws per game.
Finally on offense we come to the line. I always think Auburn needs a couple more than they get here but there are a lot of offensive linemen on the roster. However I am not sure how many good SEC tackles are on the roster. Playing tackle takes a unique skill set and every good Auburn team is marked by a great left tackle. The Tigers only brought in two new guys in this recruiting class in Brodarious Hamm and Prince Sammons. Sammons was the higher rated and has the higher ceiling. I think both will redshirt. Hopefully they will be good players down the line. Auburn has to find some good tackles on both sides of the ball with no one on the roster having much experience. It will be interesting to see how the offensive line shakes out in the spring and next fall.
The Muschamp effect was definitely still felt in this recruiting class as Auburn signed a bunch of big rangy defensive ends that would have been able to play Muschamp's "Buck" position. Hopefully new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele can use these guys too. Kudos again to coach Rodney Garner for keeping this class together. Auburn ended up with four stars Nick Coe, Marlon Davidson and JUCO Paul James. I am hoping one or two of these guys can at least come in and make an immediate impact as a pass rusher.
I was extremely concerned Auburn was going to strike out on defensive tackles. It is always a huge need and Auburn just did not have many on board late but the Tigers closed with a huge commit in FIVE star tackle Derrick Brown. He is the jewel of the class and will be sorely needed in coming seasons. Auburn also got commits from four star Antwan Jackson and three star Tashawn Manning. Defensive line has become one of the most important positions on any football team. It separates the great teams from the good teams. Auburn has added a lot of bodies at both tackle and end the last two years, many of them highly rated. It is now time to do some serious coaching and get the most out of these guys.
Linebacking recruiting this year was a real headscratcher. Auburn lost three senior linebackers who played almost all the time and only has junior Tre Williams returning with any experience yet Auburn only signed one linebacker. Auburn's only signee was three star Tre Threat. The coaching staff has definitely stated through words then action that they will be counting on signees from previous classes. I think Auburn definitely needed one or two more any way you look at it. Like offensive tackle, the other linebacking positions outside Tre Williams will be wide open and it will be interesting to see who steps up and how Kevin Steele fits everything together.
Topping it off on the defensive side Auburn grabbed several solid defensive backs in John Broussard, Marion Character, Jayvaughn Myers and Daniel Thomas. The Tigers now have a lot of young guys in the secondary to build around Carlton Davis. Carlton Davis' great play was the biggest positive story of 2015 in my opinion. I have rarely seen a freshman cornerback play as well as Davis did in 2015. He could end up being one of Auburn's best ever at cornerback. Auburn has several other guys with decent experience and should be able to field a pretty good and deep unit back there this fall. If the Tigers can find some linebackers, Auburn might have its best defense in many years.
So another well rated class is in the books for Auburn and now comes the hard part, developing these players and integrating them into the team. This sure appears to be a big weak point at Auburn as evidenced by the up and down swings of the last few years. You have to get good players but you also have to get good players that can be developed into the systems being used. From the end of Tuberville through Chizik and Malzahn there have seen a LOT of high ranked recruits flame out or never do anything. Every school has that happen but Auburn's problem in this area the last few years has seemed worse than normal.
We have reviewed the previous season, coaching staff changes and the current recruiting class, now it is time to look at the final piece of the puzzle that we know about next season, the schedule. Again of course I will start with athletic director Jay Jacob's foolhardy mistake of letting the SEC put Georgia and Bama on the same home and away rotation. It will continue to hurt Auburn for many years to come. Auburn has almost no chance of competing for the SEC title in even years when it has to go on the road at the end of the season against Georgia and Bama. This year will be no exception.
The eight game conference schedule with 14 teams will continue to help or hurt as well. While Texas A&M and Missouri have been successful since joining the SEC, overall I think the addition was a bad move and continues to hurt in less visible ways like football scheduling. It means Auburn only plays every team from the East other than Georgia once every six years. Fourteen teams just does not work well and it does not look like there will be two more great programs available anytime soon to make it sixteen. This last expansion was about nothing but greed.
The only thing that would have made expansion a positive for Auburn would have been moving to the East. It is Jay Jacob's biggest missed opportunity and blunder. Auburn could be back in the East with all of Auburn's traditional rivals in Florida, Georgia and Tennessee and out from under Bama's thumb plus not being stuck with the Mississippi schools and ex-Big 12 teams.
Sound far-fetched? Tell that to Texas A&M who is out from under Texas' thumb and regardless of what else bad happens is very happy about that. The Auburn administration needs to continually relentlessly pursue moving to the East and make Bama pick between Auburn and Tennessee. Call their bluff and if they picked Tennessee in that scenario then like Texas A&M and Texas things will be just fine. Unfortunately it takes a leader with guts and vision to make a move like that and Auburn is fresh out.
The scheduling problem will remain one of the biggest factors on whether Auburn has a chance at a conference title every year. I am definitely for a nine game schedule to alleviate this problem and getting Bama and Georgia out of this same rotation plus making every team's conference schedule more equal. Until then you will this same commentary from me in this space every year...
Overall the state of the program is what I would term tenuous. One of the definitions of that word is: "a : having little substance or strength : flimsy, weak
Couple that with the shaky foundation Auburn athletics is already on due to our esteemed athletic director. He sends e-mails out making fans think Auburn is tops in everything when the truth is much different. Auburn was dead last in the SEC West in football. It will be close to dead last in basketball, not that it has anything to do with Bruce Pearl. Pearl is a great coach but he now understands what a complete disaster Auburn basketball is after years of neglect under Jacob and his predecessors. Again Auburn Arena was only built because it was too expensive to renovate the Beard-Eaves mausoleum again.
Pearl will leave the first good chance he gets and I do not blame him. Finally we have Auburn baseball which already looks like a last place unit. How many baseball coaches has Jacobs hired? He made the worst hire in Auburn basketball history before lucking out with Pearl and almost all his all-star football assistant coach hires are gone. If Malzahn flames out are we going to let this guy run another football coaching search? Or basketball coach search? Or a fourth baseball coach search? Of course right now he is too busy patting himself on the back for his fifteen million dollar scoreboard or his brilliant new plans which include blowing another five million dollars on some outpost for the SEC Network.
I do not think Auburn will be back on solid ground till there is a change of leadership at the top of both the school and the athletic department. Until then Auburn athletics will remain on a shaky foundation. There will be a lot of talk about success but not many championships to back it up. The men's major sports are the first and main indicator and Auburn has not had any sustained success in any of them during Jacob's tenure. He better be on his knees every night giving thanks for Cam Newton and those guys in the Georgia secondary not batting that ball down in 2013...
As for this coming football season, I think it will be better. I think Sean White will be the starter with John Franklin playing an expanded "wildcat" role that may throw the ball some. I think Jovon Robinson and Kerryon Johnson will be good. We sure know that Malzahn will run the ball plenty. The passing game will be a little better than last year. The big key on offense is how good those tackles will be and will Malzahn try to keep running out of those three-wide sets without throwing the ball a whole lot. What am I saying? Of course he will.
I assume he will run the exact same thing he has always run, and with us being a bit better plus finally maybe having a decent defense that will give us a winning season. However I certainly do not have any championship expectations. I think Auburn will be better but will still lose to Clemson, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama. If the Tigers have an upset in one of those games they will probably give it back against someone unexpected like Texas A&M in 2014. That will put us at Malzahn's norm outside of 2010 and 2013 and that is 7-5. The same record he had in 2009 and 2011 as offensive coordinator and the average of the last two seasons.
Maybe this football team will surprise and hit 8-4 but the bottom line is Auburn will not be in Atlanta and will most likely lose to Bama again. I am not sure where that puts Malzahn's job security because I am not sure why anyone would expect any better than that given his track record the last two seasons. Unless John Franklin is the next Cam Newton or Auburn has two great offensive tackles appear out of nowhere I just do not see any other outcome. Malzahn's job security will remain like the state of the program and that is again tenuous.
