"Therefore, I believe in work, hard work"
Those words from "The Auburn Creed" have echoed through the practice fields and football offices on the plains this offseason. Many things change but that always stays the same, it takes a lot of hard work to compete at the highest levels of anything especially college football. There is no substitute, there are no shortcuts. The Bible as always says it the best: "All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty." It is obvious now from the results and what has been said since the end of last season that the team was not putting in that hard work last year in the weight room, on the practice fields or on game day. Now Auburn led by Gus Malzahn and his assistants will try to come back and earn some respect after the worst season ever. Let us hope that this year Auburn has put in that hard work that will bring some profit.
I would like to write a post without mentioning "the worst season ever" however there is no escaping it. The memories of last year and frankly the year before will haunt Auburn till several good seasons are put together. Auburn has not been competitive against a good team (other than a fluky win against South Carolina in 2011) since winning the national championship in 2010. Auburn and Gus Malzahn as OC were humiliated in 2011 by Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and Bama. Those were all big blowouts. I do not have to review last year. It has been a long time since 2010 and Auburn having a good football team.
Once again as anyone knows who coaches any sport, it starts with good players. Auburn has some good players, not near enough to win a championship but hopefully enough to give everyone on Auburn's schedule a tough game. This season is really about earning respect back. Auburn has been an easy out on everyone's schedule for two years and that has to change even against teams that are much better right now. Did eight wins mean anything in 2011 after getting embarrassed by Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and Bama? In my opinion eight wins does not mean near as much if you are getting blown out by every good team on your schedule. I am not worried about a repeat of last year but I am worried about a repeat of 2011.
I do think Gus Malzahn will be a decent head coach and I do think we have some good assistants. No one knows exactly how good Malzahn and these assistants will be but all have proven themselves to some degree. However I do not believe in many of these players. I cannot say it any simpler than that. I have seen this team as a whole lay down and quit in over a dozen games the last two years. They quit. Pat Dye always says that his 1981 team that went 5-6 may have been his favorite team. I always kind of brushed all of his talk about that losing team off till watching the last two seasons. That 1981 team was completely outmanned in many games but fought tooth-and-nail. That certainly cannot be said about the last two Auburn football teams.
Let us start with the upper classmen on the Auburn defense which have been a part of two record setting defenses. They turned in the worst defensive performance for a season in Auburn history in 2011 and then topped that last year. They turned in the most embarrassing performances in Auburn history against Texas A&M, Georgia and Bama last year. Yes coaching and the inertia of the worst season ever were big parts of those performances but it still boils down to the players. I just do not believe in these guys, new coaches or not. They have a long way to go to earn their respect back. One good game will not do it, two games will not do it... it will take an entire season to do it.
Let us start with the defensive line. Tackles Jeffrey Whitaker and Kenneth Carter, two highly rated prospects that played as freshmen on the 2010 team are now seniors and have been a huge part of our last two defenses. These guys just do not appear to be SEC caliber players from how Auburn has been pushed all over the field the last two years. Gabe Wright and Angelo Blackson who started in 2011 were supposed to help but have not made much of a difference. I am just describing what everyone has seen on the field the last two seasons. Carter was moved to end this spring and JUCO Ben Bradley will back up Gabe Wright.
At the ends Auburn has seniors Dee Ford and Nosa Egaue. Ford has pretty much only been an oft-injured pass rusher and Egaue has been a mystery. He is a bigger end who made some plays as a freshmen on the 2010 team but has made no impact since. These guys will be backed up by the previously mentioned Kenneth Carter, LaDarius Owens (after a short stint returning to linebacker) and the latest young studs. The problem with just about every good defensive end Auburn has had in the last decade has been they love to rush the passer but cannot stop the run. It has been the same story over and over again. Will it be any different with Carl Lawson and Elijah Daniel?
At linebacker, it appears that once again Jake Holland will start in the middle. Somehow after the last two seasons of getting beaten badly over and over again, Holland is still starting. Also once again, five star recruit Kris Frost is relegated to the bench. Bust or not developed, Frost is turning into one of the biggest recruiting disappointments in recent years. However it is hard to believe he would not be better than Holland after watching the last two seasons. At the other linebacker Cassanova McKinzy gets the start and he is one of the few defensive players not tainted by the last two seasons that I am looking forward to watching play. Auburn pretty much has nothing but freshmen behind these guys.
Spring practice star Justin Garrett will start at the "star" (linebacker/safety hybrid) position in Ellis Johnson's 4-2-5 defense. Some Auburn fans act like we discovered plutonium or something with this "new" defense. Auburn has run the 4-2-5 before in the last 15 years. It was the defense that Tommy Tuberville's original defensive coordinator John Lovett ran on the plains before he was fired. It boils down to the players and coaches not the formation. Hopefully Garrett, formerly an undersized backup linebacker, has found his spot and will be able to make some plays. Robenson Therezie looks like a good fit as his backup.
To the secondary... this was one of the few places I thought the former regime really had recruited well but after a ton of attrition and non-performance it looks like we are as bad off here as anywhere else. Cornerback Chris Davis appears to be a good player but between injuries and his schooling in "soft coverage" neither he nor anyone else has been effective at all the last two seasons. The same can be said of Jonathan Mincy on the other side. I guess there is some hope for these guys to improve and make an impact this year however there is not much depth especially with Jonathan Jones out. In fact it appears to be mostly freshmen other than Jones and senior Ryan White.
There is less hope at safety where the dismissal of senior Demetruce McNeal has left Auburn about as thin as you can get. That fact is apparent as former quarterback Kiehl Frazier might already be a backup. Josh Holsey and Jermaine Whitehead look to be the starters. Like Davis and Mincy they appear to have some potential but everyone has been saying that for years about Auburn's players in the secondary. It is time to see it on the field. The only other players at safety are Frazier, Trent Fisher and Ryan Smith.
The bottom line on defense is that pretty much none of these guys would start for any of the top teams in the conference this season. There is some hope and potential but are there any All-SEC players? Add to that Auburn has precious little depth at any position on defense and we will really be running the hurry-up-no-huddle as fast as we can this year and you can see trouble brewing. Again these problems are very similar to 2011. The hurry-up-no-huddle offense hurts a defense and it really hurts a defense without any depth. The previous regime found this out quickly in 2011.
Everyone dogged out the previous coach for slowing Malzahn in 2011 but everyone forgets where we were at after the Clemson game. Let me refresh the memory... our season defensive totals after just THREE games:
- 110 POINTS (to Utah State, Mississippi State and Clemson)
- OVER ONE THOUSAND AND SIX HUNDRED YARDS TOTAL OFFENSE
- ALMOST TWO HOURS OF TIME OF POSSESSION
- 273 plays which is an average of over 90 PLAYS A GAME
- 39 OF 59 THIRD AND FOURTH DOWN COVERSION FOR A RATE OF 66%
- RANKED #117 IN THE FBS (OUT OF 120 TEAMS)
That is what happens to a below average defense with little depth running the hurry-up-no-huddle. I hope we can avoid that fate but something like that appears more likely than unlikely. What would constitute a great year for this defense? Finishing in the top 50 in total defense? I think it has been since 2007 with Will Muschamp since we have done that. It comes down to wins and losses but decent defensive play should still show up in the stats. I guess anything better than 2009, 2011 or 2012 would be considered an improvement.
Things look a little brighter on offense. First as I said earlier this year at least we finally have an offensive head coach. It will be so nice to have a consistent philosophy on offense and not have the program turned upside down every time an offensive coordinator leaves. I have been waiting years for that. We also appear to have more firepower than Malzahn's last crew in 2011. It all starts of course in the trenches. I know I sound like a broken record but again Auburn has not had any semblance of decent offensive line play in a big game since the national championship game. That has to change for this offense to good in the big games.
Greg Robinson returns at left tackle, the most important position on the line. He is another one of those guys you keep hearing the "p-word" about as in potential. The guy now has a season of starts under his belt and if he is going to be good then the time is now. He is joined by second year guys Patrick Miller and Alex Kozan, plus juniors Chad Slade and Reese Dismukes. Patrick Miller got completely destroyed last year getting thrown in as a true freshmen. Hopefully he will be better for it this year although I still think Avery Young is the better player on that side. Alex Kozan redshirted last year but pretty much held his spot solidly throughout the spring and fall. Chad Slade after being ineffective all over the last two years has settled in at guard hopefully with better results. Dismukes is the only player recruited by the previous regime that has won any kind of All-SEC honors (freshman All-SEC in 2011).
All these guys except for Slade were top recruits that everyone else wanted and none of them are true freshmen. This is the spot to see one of those huge jumps in production I keep reading about on all the other Auburn sites. This is also one of the only spots on the field that Auburn might have some decent depth with Avery Young, Shon Coleman, Jordan Diamond, DeVonte Danzey and Tunde Fariyike. The better defensive lines in the conference have absolutely destroyed Auburn the last two seasons. That has to stop completely to earn some respect back. These guys have got to be able to compete with the big boys right now.
The tight end and "H-back" positions are probably the strongest on the team. Fullback Jay Prosch was one of the only players to distinguish himself last season. He will be a huge asset to this offense. Most people do not realize what a huge role H-back Eric Smith played for the national championship team. That is the role Prosch will play and hopefully be even better. Tight ends C.J. Uzomah and Brandon Fulse are proven commodities that I am sure will be put to good use like former tight end Phillip Lutzenkirchen was in 2010 and 2011. Uzomah is the better receiver and Fulse the better blocker. Auburn needs to lean on these guys as much as possible.
The wide receiver spot is a complete unknown. There have been so many busts or badly coached guys at this position in the last decade it is hard to expect much. Hopefully Dameyune Craig will change that. He has, as always seems to be the case at Auburn, a bunch of highly rated recruits that have not done much of anything. Right now the top five appear to be: Sammie Coates, Jaylon Denson, Ricardo Louis, Quan Bray and of course Trovon Reed. Who will step up? Will anyone be a star? Coates, Denson and Louis have the size while Bray and Reed are the small speedsters. You would figure someone would step up and benefit from this offense. However who and how much this group steps up is a big question mark going into this season.
Running back is less of a question mark. While I don't think this group will be great I do think they will be solid. Tre Mason was another one of the few that showed something last year with an 1000 yard season. He is a solid back. Cameron Artis-Payne was the spring star and is said to resemble former Auburn running back Ben Tate. He is wearing Tate's old #44 and has a similar build. Corey Grant who has great straight-line speed might step into that Ontario McCalebb role on the jet sweep that Malzahn loves so much. Peyton Barber is the star freshman. Auburn should get some decent production out of these guys provided the blocking is decent.
Last but not least is quarterback. It seems that Malzahn quickly saw he needed help at quarterback and brought in Jeremy Johnson for the future and JUCO star Nick Marshall to help now. A few of the Auburn faithful are hoping for another Cam Newton but Marshall much more resembles co-offensive coordinator Dameyune Craig his junior year at Auburn. I hope Dameyune is helping some with the quarterback coaching. I do not have much doubt that Malzahn can make Marshall a star against Arkansas State. The question is can he make him a star down in Baton Rouge?
Marshall appears to have the tools. His only cons are his size and the number of interceptions he threw in junior college. I am more concerned with the size. We are one big hit away from Jonathan Wallace coming into the game and not having much against anybody any good. Wallace is a gamer and nice to have as an emergency quarterback but he is not the solution. I think they should go ahead and put Jeremy Johnson in if Marshall is out for any length of time.
Auburn appears to have a lot of pieces in place and a good offensive coach to work with them. I expect us to light it up in some of the easier games ala 2009 but still do not think we have the horses or the experience to win the big ones. Most everybody outside of Auburn sees this season pretty clear. It is almost certain Auburn will win its four non-conference games and will likely lose to LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia and Bama. I actually think LSU will not be that good this year but Auburn and Gus Malzahn have not fared well down in Baton Rouge. LSU ran Auburn out of the stadium in both 2009 and 2011. I guess if Texas A&M loses Johnny Football Auburn might have a chance but otherwise the Aggies and him will simply outscore us. Georgia and Bama return championship-caliber senior quarterbacks. Unless one of those guys gets hurt or something strange happens Auburn is not going to win those games.
However, it does matter a heck of a lot how Auburn plays in those four games. Texas A&M came into Jordan Hare and maybe handed Auburn the most embarrassing half of football in its proud history last season. Bama has won three out its last four games against Auburn and Auburn has not scored an offensive touchdown in the last two. LSU has won five out of its last six games against Auburn. Georgia has won six of its last seven games against Auburn. Good night these schools are not even taking us serious anymore. It has to stop... it has to stop NOW. (Note: I am going to avoid getting on a rant at this time about our esteemed AD letting the SEC screw us over and put Bama and Georgia on the same home and away schedule and Bama's schedule staying the same and balanced.)
Finally it comes down to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Tennessee. Many Auburn fans are chalking these up as easy wins. How they can do that after last season is beyond me. The Mississippi schools both return solid quarterbacks who both lit us up last year. We will be on the road at Arkansas and Tennessee. Each one of these will be tough games. Tough games but winnable games. The question is how many Auburn can get? I will say Auburn splits them and finishes 6-6 and 2-6 in the SEC. That puts Auburn in a bowl for whatever that is worth.
Auburn could grab a couple they should not and turn that into eight wins but they could also lose Marshall and end up with four wins. It is almost time to tee it up and see. Washington State is a good opener. It should not be a boring game with one team coached by Gus Malzahn and one coached my Mike Leach. I guess I will end with my last paragraph from my preview from last year (yeh even a "realist" like me did not see that disaster coming), maybe this year it will come true...
"I think most Auburn fans are looking for improvement that sometimes is not seen in the win and loss record. I think they are looking for Auburn to play much better in the big games and "get mean" as I started this post saying. We may be outmanned and inexperienced but we can show these teams that we are back and here to stay by making sure they remember the next day they played the Auburn Tigers. It is "time to get mean, I mean plumb mad dog mean". I just can't say it any better than that."
I still can't say it any better than that. War Eagle.
