Auburn 2016 Preview: Cloudy... with a chance of rain

The weather forecasts throughout this summer have gotten pretty hilarious.  I will check them and it will show a high percentage of rain for a certain day.  When the days comes it will indeed look cloudy and dark but then clear up and everything will look great.  Another day when rain is not predicted, a beautiful day will turn dark and stormy in what seems like the blink of an eye.  Other days have just been very cloudy and you cannot tell which way it is going to go...  That is what the 2016 Auburn Tiger football team is looking like to me.  Many people see the clouds lingering from last season but know things are going to look brighter this year.  Other people see the clouds and know that more rain is coming...

Which one is it going to be?  My first thoughts on this season were that Auburn would not be a title contender but would be a better team.  I was thinking Auburn has a little more experience in certain areas and is due to have the ball bounce their way this season.  I was thinking 8-4 and bowling in Atlanta or Florida.  I was ready to create this preview and then boom Jovon Robinson was kicked off the team.  Auburn people also seemed to be split on how much that will hurt the Tigers.  Many people believe Kamryn Pettway will step up like Peyton Barber did last season and shoulder the load.  Other people do not believe a second string fullback last season is going to dominate as the star running back.

I believe it will hurt.  Auburn was a better football team last season after Robinson started running well.  However I still think the deciding factor is Gus Malzahn's stubborn playcalling.  This could be a good thing if it pushed Auburn to run a balanced offense but after the last two seasons I do not believe Gus Malzhan will ever run a balanced offense.  In fact I think the Auburn offense will look the exact same as it has the last three seasons.  Gus Malzahn has not changed his playcalling at all, The only thing that has changed is his personnel and opposing defensive coordinators have a lot more film on his tendencies.  

Auburn had the perfect personnel to run Malzahn's shotgun-Wing T power running offense in 2013.  He had maybe the best left tackle in Auburn history in Greg Robinson who would be the second pick in the NFL draft along with other great players on the offensive line and at tight end.  He would also have maybe the best blocking fullback in Auburn history in Jay Prosch who would also go on to the NFL.  He also had a great running back in Tre Mason and the best quarterback for his attack outside Cam Newton in Nick Marshall.  Finally he had a game breaking super freak in wide receiver Sammie Coates for the few deep passes you have to hit to keep running like that.  He had veterans everywhere on that offense and they were perfect for his scheme.  Auburn would then as everyone remembers win the SEC and almost win the whole thing. 

Of course then as I always like to point out, Florida State in that national championship game would be the first ones to exploit the weaknesses in Malzahn's playcalling.  Auburn in their hurry-up ALWAYS runs the ball when they get a first down.  Auburn would have won the game with a few play-action passes on those hurry-up first down plays but Gus stubbornly ran the ball.  He has not stopped since.  In 2014, Auburn lost a large part of their monstrous blocking when Robinson and Prosch left.  However they gained a great player in wide receiver Duke Williams to team up with Coates and an improved Nick Marshall passing-wise.  If Malzahn would have balanced his play calling a bit over the season, Auburn might have played for it all again.  

The defense definitely let Auburn down in 2014 but the offense died trying to run the ball too much against Mississippi State and Georgia.  Only once in 2014 did Malzahn unshackle the passing game and that was against Bama and the result was over 600 yards total offense on $aban and Bama in their stadium.  Auburn then came into last season with another good offensive line but did not have ONE single game of experience from the H-backs or tight ends who are essential to a power-running attack.  On top of that Auburn's only strength on offense was a large group of decent wide receivers.

None of that mattered though as Gus returned to running the ball most of the time and only throwing when he absolutely had to.  Auburn continued to try and power run behind a three wide receiver set when everyone knew that he just was not going to throw out of it very much.  It was hard to watch.  Everyone blames the quarterbacks and they were not that good but most successful offenses throw the ball on first down half the time (Bama under Lane Kiffin are right at 50%).  Auburn hovers between running the ball 70% to 80% most games on first down.  Malzahn continually waited till third and long to throw the ball.  

I also suspect that Auburn runs the same passing plays over and over like they do running plays.  For example, Malzahn loves calling the wheel route to the H-back once a game and last season you could see the other teams would read it immediately and that H-back would be covered up.  Malzahn also got White sacked several times running that stupid slow-developing double play-action play (fake to running back and fake to reversing wide receiver) on an obvious passing down.  Those are just the two that were obvious to me, again I believe there are others.  

I have read other Auburn writers pointing out Sean White having some great games last season but in all those games Auburn was behind or it was close game where Auburn was continually stopped for no gain on first down.  He did do some good but the overall offensive attack was still predicated on running the ball most of the time.  Malzahn, other than the 2014 Iron Bowl, never continues to throw the ball.  I am not talking about being Mike Leach here, I am talking about some games depending on your personnel and the opposition being much more balanced. Bama with monstrous Derrick Henry still averaged more passing yards per game than rushing.  Auburn has been the opposite last season and probably every other season Malzahn has been at the helm.  

Malzahn and Auburn in general seems to think a great passing game is bad.  You always have to run the ball the majority of the time.  That is the reason Auburn only has two wide receivers that have had 1000 yards in a season in the history of the school.  So coming back to 2016... I think Malzahn is going to do exactly the same thing this year.  "We are a run-based play-action team".  That is a quote directly from Malzahn and he obviously means it.  I thought it was just describing a certain season but it appears to be his prime directive for all seasons regardless if he has the right personnel for it or not.

That is why Auburn has under achieved the last two seasons and I think it will continue to be the reason Auburn cannot beat the big boys this season.  Fortunately for Malzahn I think Auburn will be able to run on many of it's opponents this season and Malzahn can always beat somebody he can run on.  However I think Auburn will struggle as they did last season against the big strong defenses like LSU, Georgia and Bama usually have.  It will be especially tough as it will be for all future Auburn teams in even years when the Tigers have to play Georgia and Bama on the road at the end of the season while Jordan Hare Stadium lies dark and dormant in November.

Auburn has not played a big game at home in an even year in November since Cam Newton and company beat Georgia to win the SEC West.  Right now it looks like they never will again thanks to AD Jay Jacobs "helping the conference".  I notice there is no way Bama would ever let Auburn and Tennessee be paired together like that on their schedule.  This single act by Jacobs will continue to haunt Auburn football for a long time if it is not fixed.  The season ticket holders who have a job are sure getting hosed this season with five straight home games to open the season.  It is really tough to go back and forth to Auburn five weeks in a row.  

I see Auburn beating Arkansas State, Texas A&M, Louisiana Monroe, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Alabama A&M.  That is seven wins right there.  Texas A&M and Arkansas could upset the Tigers and the loss of Jovon Robinson could raise it's ugly head in those games but I still think Auburn is the better team this season and is due to win some home conference games.  Things get dicey after that.  However if the ball bounces right and of course depending on the opposing run defense I see Auburn upsetting one of these remaining five teams on the schedule.  I think the loss of Robinson will stick out more in these games but some of these teams have issues as well.

Clemson has a history a lot like Auburn.  They rarely do well as a favorite and while they still have a great team they also lost some great players from their national runner-up team last season.  I think having to play a solid Auburn team in Auburn to open the season is a tough assignment for anyone.  I would favor Clemson but I would not be surprised a lot if Auburn pulled the upset.  I also think Auburn has a good chance against Ole Miss.  They return maybe the best quarterback in the conference in Chad Kelly but lost a LOT of good players off their Sugar Bowl champion team last season. 

I do not think this Auburn team has much of a chance against LSU or Bama.  I think this is where Malzahn's play calling and Auburn's deficiencies at quarterback will catch up with them.  I do not think Auburn can consistently run on either of these teams and I do not think any of Auburn's quarterbacks are good enough to beat them through the air.  If the Auburn defense is as good as advertised then I think Auburn can hopefully keep it close but I just do not think the offense is good enough.  Finally there is Georgia.  The Georgia game is the hardest for me to get a read on with a new coach and new quarterback.  

Kirby Smart was a great coordinator at Bama and Mark Richt had his deficiencies in other places but not against Auburn.  Mark Richt dominated Auburn over fifteen years going 10-5 and it could have been worse.  It took last second plays in 2001, 2005 and 2013 for Auburn to win and two of the greatest teams in Auburn history to win the other two in 2004 and 2010.  I simply cannot see Kirby Smart doing that well against Auburn.  However they do have a dominant back in Nick Chubb if he can make it to the Auburn game and the home field advantage has definitely kicked in for this series in the last decade.  Auburn has not won in Athens since 2005 so I think you have to favor Georgia but Auburn might have a decent chance in this one.

Now a quick look over this year's team...  For the first time in a long time, Auburn is supposed to have a good defense.  It seems like forever since that has happened.  However Auburn has proven talent on the defensive line and in the secondary.  I think Carl Lawson, Montravius Adams and Carlton Davis could be some of the best in the country.  The Tigers also have a ton of good recruits on the line.  The coaches have done a good job stockpiling the defensive line after struggling with depth for so many years.  I mean at least some of these big time recruits have to come through right?!?  There are a bunch of them that everyone else wanted including the #1 recruit in the country two years ago, Byron Cowart.  Cowart and a bunch of the interior linemen got some good experience last season and should be much better this year.

The Tigers also have a ton of solid experienced players in the secondary.  If the line is better you have to think they will surely benefit and be better as well.  I look over the roster and see: Carlton Davis, Rudy Ford, Tray Matthews, Josh Holsey, Stephen Roberts, Nick Ruffin, etc...  Again these guys are good experienced players.  The only question mark on defense is at linebacker where you do not see the experience you do at the other positions.  However Tre Williams looked better at the end of last season and T.J. Neal transferred in after a big year at Illinois.  If the linebacking can just be solid and as always if Auburn can avoid injuries, it sure looks like the Auburn nation will see a real Auburn defense for the first time in a long time. 

Things do not look as good on offense.  The line is solid but you have two new and inexperienced tackles in Austin Golson and probably Robert Leff and that is a big red flag right there.  Auburn also still has zero experience at tight end since Jalen Harris got hurt last season and the tackle they put in to sub for him transferred.  The interior of the Auburn line is the strong and experienced but those guys cannot do it all.  They will finally have some help at H-back with Chandler Cox and Kamryn Pettway stronger and a full season of experience under their belts.  They struggled at times last season but hopefully they will be much better this season.  

It looks like both Cox and Pettway will also be in the lineup a lot at the main running back slot as well.  These two players appear to constitute the bulk of the Auburn power running game now.  As I stated above I am still not sure about Pettway as the main guy at running back but I guess it does not matter as there is no one else to do it.  One thing is for sure, an injury to either one of these guys could be devastating.  The star outside the tackles and Auburn's premiere playmaker will be running back Kerryon Johnson.  He showed flashes of being a great player last season and should only be better this season.  The problem is that every defense will be keying on him every play especially if he only comes in game when we are going to use him.  

That is another problem that people seemingly just do not understand and that is offensive substitution packages.  All I hear is how Gus wants to get back to the hurry-up but you simply cannot run a hurry-up offense anymore substituting like Auburn does.  Basically the defense is allowed time to sub if the offense subs.  The only way to really run the hurry-up now is to not sub for a series but Auburn seems to sub on just about every play.  Another problem is that all these substitution packages also many times telegraph what you are going to run.  I have heard more than once that other teams can make a high percentage guess on what Auburn is going to run according to who is in the game.  I know I can guess many times or I can tell you beyond a shadow of a doubt Auburn will not throw to a certain wide receiver.  Which brings us to the wide receiver slot...

Wide receiver is obviously a big question mark.  It looks like Auburn will open the season starting the veterans that do not appear to have game breaking speed or athleticism.  Of course I guess job #1 for them in Malzahn's offense is blocking.  Auburn has several top flight wide receiver recruits coming in but I am not sure what kind of impact they can make in an offense that throws as little as Auburn.  Auburn only completed 179 passes for the entire season in 2015.  I guess the main thing Auburn needs is someone like Sammie Coates or Ricardo Louis who can stretch the field for those occasional bombs if Auburn has a quarterback that can even throw them.  That brings us finally to the biggest question of the pre-season...

Who will start at quarterback to open the season?  I have never had a doubt.  While I have seen others go back and forth I have never wavered.  I have thought it was going to be Sean White as soon as the bowl game ended.  Once the coaches changed to Sean White last season they did not waver in their commitment to him.  They brought him in on one leg in the Georgia game when it was obvious he should not be in there.  They started him in the bowl game after he had not played in almost two months other than that series in the Georgia game.  They were never going back to Jeremy Johnson and I think they knew Franklin was too raw from the start but wanted that option for spot duty this season and hope that maybe he can start next season if White does not live up to expectations this season.

I think they will bring in John Franklin for wildcat duty as Malzahn still loves that antiquated package but White is the man.  I think they have dragged it out to make sure none of them leave because they might need all of them.  They need some athleticism at the quarterback position for certain situations so they need Franklin. I think they wanted Johnson to hang around because White could easily get hurt again and it is nice to have an experienced senior as a back up no matter how maligned he is.  It all makes sense.  I cannot fault any of their thinking there. 

I think Sean White is a decent quarterback but I just do not think he can lead you to a championship or beat Bama.  I just do not think he is good enough.  However he should do a decent job in most of the other games as I talked about above.  I think again he could be better of course if we ran a more balanced offense but that is not going to happen.  The offense is going to look just like last season but hopefully White himself will be better after getting a bunch of playing time last season.  The X factor is going to be those new tackles, the tight end spot and the wide receivers.  I just think it is going to be hard to run consistently with inexperienced tackles and tight ends.  

The biggest thing Auburn has going for it is the rest of the SEC West outside LSU and Bama losing a lot of good players.  Again I think that opens up a couple more wins for the Tigers.  I think I am going to stay with an 8-4 prediction but as always there are a lot of variables out there with the biggest being injuries.  I see a bit of sunshine peeking through but it is still very cloudy out there and there is still a chance of rain.  Let's tee it up and find out.  War Eagle.

THE BIG CON

During a spring where I guess after reading other Auburn sites we are all supposed to be super excited about softball and gymnastics, I find myself not that pumped.  Oh and I forgot the equestrian team.  I do not mean to poke fun or marginalize these sports.  I have a daughter who plays sports.  I am all for women's sports and Auburn being successful in every sport it fields a team.  However there are three large facilities built for the three largest and most popular sports at Auburn and they are men's football, basketball and baseball.  Like it or not, these sports are the main indicator of athletic success at any university. 

I am tired of many Auburn fans seemingly ignoring the absolute disasters men's basketball and baseball have become not to mention football at times.  The NCAA men's basketball tournament is considered one of the greatest spectacles in all of sport.  I am sorry people, I am not excited when our men's basketball team is not a part of it for the THIRTEENTH YEAR IN A ROW.  And until they give Plainsman Park to the softball team, baseball is more important.  Other than two great seasons in football these sports have not been successful at all during the decade plus reign of athletic director Jay Jacobs.  Jacobs continuing to remain employed as Auburn's athletic director really is "The Big Con". 

Here is Jacob's flowery bio from Auburn's website.  The bio starts with his brilliant five goals which are basically the same five goals of any college athletic department.  They are: "Winning, graduating student-athletes, managing the department's fiscal affairs, complying with SEC and NCAA rules and providing a positive gameday experience."  First "providing a positive gameday experience" does not mean jack if you do not meet objective #1, winning.  Jacobs can build all the fifteen million dollar scoreboards he wants but if the football team finishes last in the division, it really does not matter.

Auburn should be able to find plenty of other candidates that can handle graduating student-athletes, managing fiscal affairs and dealing with compliance.  An AD can get himself fired by failing in those categories but any decent one should be able to take care of them.  The difference between a great AD and the rest is winning and taking care of business in the rest of them.  This is where Jay Jacobs has miserably failed and if he is conning people in the other categories like he tries to do in the "winning" category, he might be worse than even I think he is. 

The next thing Jacobs brags about in his bio is "The Auburn Athletics Department has consistently ranked in the top 10 percent of the NACDA Directors Cup."  Read it carefully, not the top ten but the top ten percent.  I mean the number of athletically successful "Power 5" schools is not that big.  I am not sure how great an accomplishment it is just being the top ten percent for overall athletics for Division 1 schools.  It is good but I think Auburn could accomplish that feat without Jacobs.

Next we come to the national championships at Auburn since Jacobs took over...  Auburn has clamed 11 national championships during Jacobs' reign but lets take a closer look.  First, three of those national championships are from the equestrian team.  Again I do not want to demean or take anything away from that great accomplishment but I am going to go out on a limb and say Jacobs has pretty much nothing to do with our equestrian team strength.

(NOTE: The equestrian team has just won another national championship this spring and shockingly they have not updated Jacob's bio with it yet so you will soon hear of another national championship won under him.)

Second, the rest of those except for football in 2010 and women's track in 2006 are all swimming and diving national championships and were all won under coach David Marsh except for 2009 which was won with his recruits.  It is so pathetic that Jay Jacobs tries to take credit for anything David Marsh has done since Jacobs is widely credited with hastening Marsh's departure from Auburn.  He can deny all he wants but there was friction between the two.  Why Jacobs was not giving David Marsh anything he wanted is beyond me.

I stated earlier that the three men's major sports are the main indicators of athletic success at any university.  As with just about any rule there are exceptions.  There are times when a coach and a school becomes so good in one of the other college sports that they rise up and join football, basketball and baseball.  This happened with swimming at Auburn with David Marsh like it did at Bama in gymnastics under Sarah Patterson or at Tennessee in women's basketball under Pat Summit.  Most smart athletic directors then do anything they can do to keep these legendary coaches.

Bama and Tennessee did with Patterson and Summit.  These coaches stepped down from their positions for health reasons.  David Marsh left Auburn still in his prime after becoming one of the most successful coaches in the history of sport.  He has more national championships than Patterson or Summit or even Bear Bryant.  Marsh won twelve national championships at Auburn.  Any decent athletic director should have done just about anything to keep him and Jacobs did not.  He did not do everything he could to keep Marsh and then he tries to use Marsh's success for his own personal gain.

Jay Jacobs had little to nothing to do with David Marsh's success at Auburn.  Marsh won five of those national championship before Jacobs even took over.  I think you could even say seven.  Jacobs is apparently claiming the two Marsh national championship from 2004 when Jacobs did not even officially take over till December of that year.  Jacobs will stop at nothing to grab something that makes him look better.  I think he did not like Marsh having a much higher profile than himself at Auburn.  I think Jacobs wanted all coaches having success to be ones hired by him and maybe that is why he spent so much time trying to run Tuberville off and why I do not think he was too sad to see Marsh go.

So again we are left with the 2010 Auburn football national championship and a 2006 women's track national championship on Jacobs' resume.  I guess Jacobs gets credit for hiring Chizik who hired Malzahn who convinced Chizik to recruit Cam Newton.  However he also should get the due blame for Chizik's complete meltdown two years later.  Also, the bulk of the 2010 team outside Cam Newton and a few more was recruited by Tommy Tuberville.  The offensive and defensive lines were recruited by Tuberville.  Also, all of the champions on the 2006 women's track team were seniors recruited before Jacobs ever took over.

The rest of Jacob's bio blathers on about all the building projects he has been involved in as well as media and apparel deals.  Of course the first one he brags about is Auburn Arena which as I have said in this blog many times he and the Auburn administration deserve no credit for.  They only built Auburn Arena for basketball because it was cheaper in the long run than renovating and maintaining the Beard Eaves mausoleum.  The Auburn administration would get credit if it has been built after the great 1999 season or earlier.

 Am I saying Jacobs deserves no credit for any success at Auburn?  No.  I am saying the record of success is much smaller than it is made out to be.  This is also just establishing a base for the most damning evidence against Jacobs and that is Auburn's record in the men's major sports during his tenure.  Most Auburn fans seem to have no idea how bad it is.  It is always about how things are "looking better next year" yet that year never seems to come.  I do not know think there is any athletic director in modern history that has survived at any of the SEC's traditional top tier schools with a record like Jacobs.

LET US LOOK AT THE NUMBERS...  beginning with baseball since it is the first men's major sport that started after Jacobs took over in December of 2004.  In the ELEVEN seasons since Jacobs took over Auburn has gone 137-193 in conference.  This has included FIVE last place finishes in the SEC West compared to only one first place finish.  In fact, the one first place finish in 2010 was Auburn's ONLY winning season in conference in the eleven seasons of baseball under Jacobs.  Folks, that is TEN losing seasons in conference out of eleven under Jacobs.  COME ON.

This has also included THREE coaching hires made by Jacobs, he inherited Tom Slater.  It is still ridiculous though this man has gotten to make three hires in this sport.  Especially after his first two were dismal failures culminating in the embarrassing hiring and firing of Sonny Galloway.  Everything is supposed to change, again, with his latest hire in Butch Thompson yet at the date of this post Auburn is once again back in last place in baseball in the SEC West.  Auburn is already guaranteed ANOTHER losing season in conference right now.  That brings it to 11 out of 12 losing seasons under Jacobs.  COME ON.

Moving to basketball which I pretty much covered in my last post but let's just do a quick recap...  Auburn is an ABYSMAL 58-126 in basketball under Jay Jacobs.  This has included THREE last place finishes and as with baseball only ONE season with a winning conference record and NO NCAA tournament appearnaces.  Like baseball that is TEN losing seasons in conference out of eleven under Jacobs.  During this time Jacobs also made the worst hire in Auburn basketball history in Tony Barbee whose surly conduct was about as embarrassing as Sonny Galloway in baseball.  COME ON.

Some people would argue that he made the best hire in Auburn basketball history in Bruce Pearl.  Technically that is right but going after a disgraced Pearl was an obvious move anyone at Auburn would have done.  First, Auburn would never even have a chance with Pearl without his NCAA violations at Tennessee.  Next, nobody was going to give Pearl, who was still under an NCAA show cause penalty, the money a desperate Auburn was so it was not like it took much skill or maneuvering to get him.  I am glad we got him but I do not give Jacobs much credit for "pulling it off". 

Finally, we come to football...  first are we supposed to give Jacobs a lifetime contact because we won an SEC and national championship in football in 2010 and the SEC again in 2013?  It seems many Auburn fans would answer "yes" to that question.  I guess all I can do is agree to disagree.  Jacobs started his career as AD at Auburn embarrassing himself and the university with his public feud with Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville.  It was more than obvious that Jacobs wanted Tuberville gone and wanted to make his own hire in football.  That is why I do not think Tuberville's football record should count much for Jacobs.

In football we are only 48-40 in the SEC under Jacobs WITH Tuberville and ONLY 28-28 WITHOUT.  That is counting Auburn's 8-0 and 7-1 records in 2010 and 2013 folks.  Jacob's first embarrassed himself with his public bickering with Tuberville and then topped that by running one of the most embarrassing coaching searches ever that culminated in the hiring of Gene Chizik.  It was obvious in both cases how inexperienced and unqualified he was to be an athletic director.  Things were looking bad till the magical 2010 season.

Again though as I stated earlier the bulk of the 2010 team outside Cam Newton and a few more was recruited by Tommy Tuberville.  The offensive and defensive lines were recruited by Tuberville.  There were 27 seniors on that 2010 team and that was the foundation Newton was able to work his magic on.  If Cam Newton had come back for his senior year in 2011, Auburn would still have gone 7-5.  The offensive and defensive lines were terrible plus several other spots that had been manned by seniors the year before.  It is hard to give Jacobs much credit for things done by Tuberville because again he made it clear he did not like or want Tuberville.

Of course, even if you give Jacobs full credit for 2010 you also have to give him full credit for 2012, arguably the worst season in the history of Auburn football.  It was a meltdown of unprecedented proportions.  That was his guy and the buck stopped with him.  Jacobs should have been gone after a season that bad along with his failures in baseball and basketball I list above.  However a weak president not wanting to rock the boat before his retirement and an even weaker board of trustees allowed him to stay.  Those same reasons are why he continues to enjoy job security.

We now come to Malzahn and opinions obviously vary on him and his future at Auburn.  Let's just look at the facts and those are that Malzahn is 13-11 in the SEC and has one first place finish and one last place finish.  He did a great job in 2013 but has done a mediocre to bad job the last two seasons.  This has culminated in a 2-9 record in conference since Auburn won at Ole Miss on November 1st in 2014.  Auburn has gone 0-5 in conference games at home during that time.  I do not know how hot Malzahn's seat is but we know nobody is super secure in the SEC.  Is the Auburn leadership going to let Jacobs select yet another football coach if things go bad?  I shudder at the thought.

I did not even mention the cowardly way Jacobs tried to hide behind a committee of Auburn's two greatest players when hiring Malzahn.  I cannot fathom watching him lead a third head football coach search.  On top of that, as I will continue to point out, Malzahn and all future Auburn head football coaches can thank Jacobs for having to play Georgia and Bama basically back-to-back on the road every other year.  That one thing might be Jacobs biggest failure at Auburn as it has doomed Auburn to basically never having a chance to win the SEC in football in even years. 

There you have it.  Again, Jacob's football hires are 28-28 in conference with two first place finishes and two last place finishes.  Auburn's baseball record is 137-193 in conference with only one winning season and five last place finishes in eleven years (soon to be twelve) under Jacobs.  Auburn's basketball record is again 58-126 in conference with only one winning season and three last place finishes in eleven years under Jacobs.  Those teams play in Auburn's largest sports facilities on campus and bring in the bulk of the revenue that runs the athletic program.

Auburn's men's major sports outside two magical years in football have been spectacularly awful under Jay Jacobs.  He has had over a decade running Auburn's athletic department but has failed in his stated goal of winning in the most important sports on campus.  He has been given more than enough time to try and successfully run Auburn's athletics department.  It is obvious now that he is not the man for the job and change is needed.  There is absolutely no reason Auburn should be this inconsistent or flat-out bad in the men's major sports.  How much longer do we have to suffer through this?  LOOK AT THE NUMBERS.  #FIREJAYJACOBS.

Auburn Basketball 2015-16: BROKEN

Another year, another disaster for Auburn basketball.  It seems like it will never change, in fact at this point I think there is a good chance it does not ever change.  There are always plenty of excuses.  This player did not make it, this player quit, this player got hurt, etc...  Blah blah blah...  I have heard that my entire life yet the record never changes.  Auburn is now the worst program in the SEC officially, Auburn now has the most conference losses since the conference expanded in 1992.  Auburn is now 151-257 in the conference in that time.  Auburn hired the best basketball coach they will ever have on the plains two years ago and things have gotten WORSE record-wise.  Yeh yeh I know, it is all about to change next season.  Whatever.  Here is how we got here as I have documented in the past:

• Jeff Lebo was fired at end of 2009-10 season.
• After 2009-10: Auburn Basketball Memories
• After 2009-10: Auburn Basketball Analysis (Auburn has only won 27 conference games since this post was written)
• During 2010-11 season: Is Auburn Basketball Cursed? (The Barbee era was over before it barely began)
• After 2011-12 season: Critical Condition (Auburn now has only three winning conference records in TWENTY FIVE YEARS)
• After 2011-12 season: Auburn Basketball is at a dead end
• After 2012-13 season:  "I did not post one thing on basketball this year.  Nothing has changed since the post I wrote last year titled "Auburn Basketball is at a dead end".  In fact things only got worse.  My gosh we lost our last 10 games in a row and 16 out of 17 games to end the season.  Coach Barbee even gave up during that span.  He completely lost his fire, never got off the bench and just doled out platitudes after games.  Basketball is a complete and full blown disaster.  It is dead and it is the Auburn administration's fault for letting it die on the table over the last 20 years... There just seems to be no hope for Auburn basketball."
• After 2013-14 season: A Pearl of Great Price (We got Bruce Pearl!  He can save us!)
• After 2014-15 season: More of the Same till the End (Maybe things are still looking up?)

 

That brings us to the end of the 2015-16 season.  I will start out saying the same thing I wrote last year: 

"Nobody was more excited about Coach Bruce Pearl coming to Auburn than I was...  However I was pretty disappointed watching another season completely unravel.  I certainly knew he would not do it overnight but I expected more than a 4-14 (5-13 this season) conference record.  That is only one (or two) more win(s) than Tony Barbee's "worst season ever" in 2012-13.  Barbee went 3-15 in conference that year.  

I know Auburn did not have a lot of talent for Pearl to work with but I am sorry they had enough talent with a good coach to do better than 4-14 (or 5-13).  It has been extremely difficult to watch.  I have heard a lot about this team fighting and not quitting but you can say that about Jeff Lebo's teams.  The only thing that matters is wins and losses and again 4-14 (and 5-13) just does not cut it.  This team has as much or more talent than many teams Auburn has had over the last 20 years that had better conference records with worse coaches."


I know the team had some serious problems with injuries and defections so maybe some of those comments are unfair.  However the facts are sobering.  Pearl became the first coach in Auburn basketball history to lose 20 games in back-to-back seasons and set another infamous record of being the first Auburn basketball team to have SEVENTEEN DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSSES.  Auburn now has SEVEN losing seasons in a row and again only three winning conference records in TWENTY FIVE YEARS.  I mean COME ON!!!

I then wrote after last season that I thought Auburn needed to finish with a winning conference record or at least go 8-8 this season.  I thought another losing conference record would hurt Pearl's sales pitch and make it more difficult to convince recruits that Auburn is turning it around.  I thought the home attendance would drop as well.  Well here we are and we went 5-13.  The Tigers were only one game better and there was no great tournament run this season.  In fact Auburn was flat-out embarrassed in the first round by a bad Tennessee team 97-59.  At one point the Vols led 74-37?!?  That is just completely unacceptable.

Will it make it more difficult to recruit?  Or can it get any harder to recruit to Auburn for basketball?  Probably not.  I think the attendance will drop without winning.  Nobody wants to watch teams this bad.  I will say that once again like last season there was one lone bright spot during the season.  Last season it was the tournament run and this season it was consecutive wins over Kentucky and Bama at home.  Those were huge wins and if the bottom had not completely fallen out of the season they would be a lot bigger.  I definitely understand you cannot take any win over Kentucky in basketball for granted.  It just does not happen much.  Also it was very important for Pearl to get a win over Bama this season.

The major reason for the season going down the tubes was the suspension and then the departure of leading scorer Kareem Canty after those big wins.  Everyone wants to use that as an excuse but a player misbehaving is still on the coach.  Senior Cinmeon Bowers also had to be disciplined during the season.  Can we not find a decent player without all the drama?  I do not understand why so many of these players cannot stay out of trouble.  You are playing big-time college basketball and you have a good thing going.  Why can't you just PLAY THE GAME???  Every year it seems something like this happens.  I keep reading that this season is just a blip on the radar?  What???  It is par for the course in Auburn basketball.

Where does that leave this program?  I have used terms like: "cursed", "critical condition", "dead end", "disaster", etc...  I think at this point I will just simply say Auburn basketball is BROKEN.  I still think Bruce Pearl is a great coach.  He just has too long a track record of success.  I think these two seasons reflect more on this broken program than on Pearl.  Now I think he could have done some things better but it is mostly on Auburn.  At this point I do not think he is going to be able to fix it.  We might get one decent season out of him but I have no doubt he is just waiting for a spot to open at any decent basketball school.  I do not blame him.  As I have written before, the Auburn job appears to be a career-killing black hole for coaches.  The longer Pearl stays, the longer he will be stained by the program.   

On top of all this as I wrote last season, I am not sure when or if Auburn will ever make it back to the NCAA Tournament.  Things have changed so much since Auburn last made it to the Big Dance in 2003.  At that time, a winning conference record pretty much guaranteed an NCAA Tournament berth.  Auburn got in with an 8-8 record in 2003 (and 9-7 in 2000).  Nowadays an SEC team can go 12-4 in conference and not make it.  That does not bode well for Auburn.  You have to get some big wins against out-of-conference foes in addition to doing well in your conference.  It all paints a pretty bleak picture.  People can debate some of the subjective opinions I have written here but the actual events and records cannot be debated.  The program is broken.
 

I wish I knew a solution.  I wish anybody knew a solution and they could do something about it.  The only thing I can think of is to just try only taking kids from Auburn's base recruiting region.  Just take the best available and grow that team to seniors.  They will not be world beaters and probably won't finish near the top of the standings but they might could finish 8-8 and doing it with more of a homegrown team might bring the fans out.  Recruit the best available from as close to Auburn as you can get.  Get kids that have grown up around the SEC.  It certainly cannot hurt, things pretty much cannot get any worse.

 

I base this on Auburn's greatest team, the 1999 team.  Every starter on that team except Mamadou who was a special exception was from Alabama or Georgia.  Chris Porter, Doc Robinson and Bryant Smith were all from Alabama.  Scotty Pohlman was from Georgia.  I know that is a once in a lifetime team but I think that is one of the reasons that team came together.  I think it is also true about many of Bama's special basketball teams as well.  These coaches continue to bring in these mercenaries who have no attachment to this area of the country and have proven they will quit and leave as soon as they do not get their way or something bad happens, i.e. Kareem Canty.

 

I am not sure how to end this.  I get the feeling I will be writing the same things next year again.  As evidenced by the list above and this post I have already written them many times already.  I do not have any illusions about championships in basketball but Auburn should have more than three winning conference records in TWENTY -FIVE YEARS.  Auburn should be better than this.  The buck ultimately stops with the administration.  It is not all this administration's fault basketball is in this state but they have done their part like the ones before them.  Auburn basketball is broken.  Can anyone fix it?

2016 State of the Program - Leap Day Edition

First, my standard intro to this post...  "It has become standard here at STR to do a "State of the Program" post following national signing day.  The national "state of the union" is always around this time as well and it just seems like the perfect time to do it for a college football team. It is the end of a complete cycle of college football starting with spring practice through the regular season and then the all important recruiting season. You really have a good pretty good feel as to where the program is since most big fans have been into it almost daily for six months. You have seen your team play an entire season and know the latest batch of recruits coming in."

Last year, the state of the program still seemed good after hiring Will Muschamp to fix the defense and bringing in a decent recruiting class.  Auburn seemed poised to rebound in 2015 and put some of the glaring problems from 2014 behind them.  Alas that was not the case and the 2015 season was even worse with the offense imploding and the defense not improving a whole lot.  I said in this post last year "Coach Malzahn must make some changes.  He stubbornly continued to try and run the ball even when it was clearly not working and refused many times to just call a straight pass in critical situations.  Everyone expects this to change... However I am not convinced yet things will change."

Things did not change.  In fact, I am now convinced that Gus Malzahn will never wander far from the 2013 playbook.  I believe the only thing he will ever run is his power running Wing-T offense from the shotgun formation with a few passes thrown in, a "run-based play-action offense" as he has said many times.  He is just too stubborn to change no matter the circumstances.  I do not have a problem with that offense except when the team does not have the personnel to run it and this year Auburn did NOT have the personnel to run it, i.e. there was no experienced H-back or tight end. 

On top of that, Malzahn and quarterback coach Rhett Lashlee miserably failed getting quarterback Jeremy Johnson ready for the season.  Either that or they both miserably failed evaluating Johnson in the three years he has been on campus.  It has simply been unbelievable to me that all the blame has been placed on Johnson by the majority of Auburn fans while no one holds the guy making four million dollars to coach him up accountable at all???!!!???  The buck stops with the head coach.

Auburn was terrible on offense all season starting with the quarterback and continuing with the play calling.  Malzahn repeatedly ran the ball from three-wide receiver formations and had one of the least productive passing games in the nation.  The defense was almost as bad even with Muschamp.  This all added up to a 6-6 season that included losses to LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama.  People like to point out how close the Tigers were in some of those losses but on the other hand Auburn should have lost to Jax State so it goes both ways.

Things got worse as the season ended when defensive coordinator Will Muschamp became the head coach at South Carolina and took Travarius Robinson, Lance Thompson and many of Auburn's off-the-field analysts with him.  Next came the news that both junior offensive tackles would be leaving early for the NFL plus their position coach J.B. Grimes left as well.  Finally the news hit that Dameyune Craig would forsake his alma mater and head to LSU in a lateral coaching move. 

Auburn did grab LSU defensive coordinator Kevin Steele to replace Will Muschamp and brought in a couple of experienced coaches in Herb Hand and Wesley McGriff.  However they also brought in a couple of inexperienced former players as well in Travis Williams and Kodi Burns.  I love both of these guys but they are very young.  As the dust settles, it sure looks like Auburn lost more than it gained.  There certainly appears to be something wrong when you see this much attrition in this small a time period.  The loss of both offensive tackles might be the worst blow though.  On the positive side, as documented in my last post at least defensive end Carl Lawson decided to stay along with defensive tackle Montravius Adams.  That will be a huge boost to the defense.

It was a rough season and the fear was all the turmoil would also destroy Auburn's recruiting class.  Fortunately it did not, thanks mainly to the departed Dameyune Craig and coach Rodney Garner.  These two guys and the rest of the staff might have done their best job yet on the recruiting trail as they held the class together and ended with it ranked in the top ten.  That is an incredible accomplishment when you consider all that has transpired. 

Even more kudos have to given to Craig who helped bring in maybe the best wide receiver class in the country to a school that clearly does not throw the ball much.  It was one of the most impressive jobs of recruiting I have ever seen.  I am not sure why any wide receiver would come to Auburn, a place that has only had TWO 1000 yard receiving seasons IN THE HISTORY OF THE SCHOOL...

Let's take a closer look at the 2016 Auburn recruiting class...  First it was obvious that Auburn better find a few more options at quarterback and they better be mobile.  The coaches checked that box with JUCO John Franklin and phenom Woody Barrett, both of them dual threat quarterbacks.  I am not sure Auburn could have done much better here.  They got the JUCO who hopefully can help some immediately and a good one to put in the pipeline for next year or the year after. 

Elsewhere on offense, the Tigers added running back Malik Miller from my neck of the woods here in Madison, Alabama and tight end Landon Rice.  Auburn is pretty set at running back but you always want to get at least one guy in the pipeline.  Tight end is an urgent need so I hope Rice is more ready to go by next fall than the guys currently on the roster were this last season and as I am writing this post I see that sophomore tight end Chris Laye is leaving.  That leaves Auburn with only two inexperienced tight ends again.  Auburn did not recruit any more H-backs but I think Chandler Cox and Kamryn Pettway should be better this year after a brutal learning experience last season.

As mentioned before, former coach Dameyune Craig was able to bring in an amazing wide receiver class including four stars Kyle Davis, Nate Craig-Myers and Eli Stove plus three star Marquis McClain.  I wish I could be more excited but Auburn simply does not throw the ball that much.  I hope these guys are good blockers because that is what they will do more than anything.  This past season Auburn averaged throwing the ball only 22 times per game which ranked 116 out of 128 teams.  Also, many of those passes were short passes that were basically running plays.  Triple option Georgia Tech averaged 17 passes per game.  Bama was right where I think a balanced team needs to be and that is averaging at least 30 throws per game.

Finally on offense we come to the line.  I always think Auburn needs a couple more than they get here but there are a lot of offensive linemen on the roster.  However I am not sure how many good SEC tackles are on the roster.  Playing tackle takes a unique skill set and every good Auburn team is marked by a great left tackle.  The Tigers only brought in two new guys in this recruiting class in Brodarious Hamm and Prince Sammons.  Sammons was the higher rated and has the higher ceiling.  I think both will redshirt.  Hopefully they will be good players down the line.  Auburn has to find some good tackles on both sides of the ball with no one on the roster having much experience.  It will be interesting to see how the offensive line shakes out in the spring and next fall.

The Muschamp effect was definitely still felt in this recruiting class as Auburn signed a bunch of big rangy defensive ends that would have been able to play Muschamp's "Buck" position.  Hopefully new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele can use these guys too.  Kudos again to coach Rodney Garner for keeping this class together.  Auburn ended up with four stars Nick Coe, Marlon Davidson and JUCO Paul James.  I am hoping one or two of these guys can at least come in and make an immediate impact as a pass rusher.

I was extremely concerned Auburn was going to strike out on defensive tackles.  It is always a huge need and Auburn just did not have many on board late but the Tigers closed with a huge commit in FIVE star tackle Derrick Brown.  He is the jewel of the class and will be sorely needed in coming seasons.  Auburn also got commits from four star Antwan Jackson and three star Tashawn Manning.  Defensive line has become one of the most important positions on any football team.  It separates the great teams from the good teams. Auburn has added a lot of bodies at both tackle and end the last two years, many of them highly rated.  It is now time to do some serious coaching and get the most out of these guys.

Linebacking recruiting this year was a real headscratcher.  Auburn lost three senior linebackers who played almost all the time and only has junior Tre Williams returning with any experience yet Auburn only signed one linebacker.  Auburn's only signee was three star Tre Threat.  The coaching staff has definitely stated through words then action that they will be counting on signees from previous classes.  I think Auburn definitely needed one or two more any way you look at it.  Like offensive tackle, the other linebacking positions outside Tre Williams will be wide open and it will be interesting to see who steps up and how Kevin Steele fits everything together.

Topping it off on the defensive side Auburn grabbed several solid defensive backs in John Broussard, Marion Character, Jayvaughn Myers and Daniel Thomas.  The Tigers now have a lot of young guys in the secondary to build around Carlton Davis.  Carlton Davis' great play was the biggest positive story of 2015 in my opinion.  I have rarely seen a freshman cornerback play as well as Davis did in 2015.  He could end up being one of Auburn's best ever at cornerback.  Auburn has several other guys with decent experience and should be able to field a pretty good and deep unit back there this fall.  If the Tigers can find some linebackers, Auburn might have its best defense in many years.

So another well rated class is in the books for Auburn and now comes the hard part, developing these players and integrating them into the team.  This sure appears to be a big weak point at Auburn as evidenced by the up and down swings of the last few years.  You have to get good players but you also have to get good players that can be developed into the systems being used.  From the end of Tuberville through Chizik and Malzahn there have seen a LOT of high ranked recruits flame out or never do anything.  Every school has that happen but Auburn's problem in this area the last few years has seemed worse than normal.

We have reviewed the previous season, coaching staff changes and the current recruiting class, now it is time to look at the final piece of the puzzle that we know about next season, the schedule.  Again of course I will start with athletic director Jay Jacob's foolhardy mistake of letting the SEC put Georgia and Bama on the same home and away rotation.  It will continue to hurt Auburn for many years to come.  Auburn has almost no chance of competing for the SEC title in even years when it has to go on the road at the end of the season against Georgia and Bama.  This year will be no exception. 

The eight game conference schedule with 14 teams will continue to help or hurt as well. While Texas A&M and Missouri have been successful since joining the SEC, overall I think the addition was a bad move and continues to hurt in less visible ways like football scheduling.  It means Auburn only plays every team from the East other than Georgia once every six years.  Fourteen teams just does not work well and it does not look like there will be two more great programs available anytime soon to make it sixteen.  This last expansion was about nothing but greed.

The only thing that would have made expansion a positive for Auburn would have been moving to the East.  It is Jay Jacob's biggest missed opportunity and blunder.  Auburn could be back in the East with all of Auburn's traditional rivals in Florida, Georgia and Tennessee and out from under Bama's thumb plus not being stuck with the Mississippi schools and ex-Big 12 teams. 

Sound far-fetched?  Tell that to Texas A&M who is out from under Texas' thumb and regardless of what else bad happens is very happy about that.  The Auburn administration needs to continually relentlessly pursue moving to the East and make Bama pick between Auburn and Tennessee.  Call their bluff and if they picked Tennessee in that scenario then like Texas A&M and Texas things will be just fine.  Unfortunately it takes a leader with guts and vision to make a move like that and Auburn is fresh out.

The scheduling problem will remain one of the biggest factors on whether Auburn has a chance at a conference title every year.  I am definitely for a nine game schedule to alleviate this problem and getting Bama and Georgia out of this same rotation plus making every team's conference schedule more equal.  Until then you will this same commentary from me in this space every year...

Overall the state of the program is what I would term tenuous.  One of the definitions of that word is: "a :   having little substance or strength :  flimsy, weak or b : shaky ".  I think that is where we are considering Gus Malzahn's stubbornness on offense and desire to fill his offensive staff with almost all "yes" men.  Beyond that the first genuine word he gives in an interview will be the first ever thus he has no relationship with the fans other than the ones that would still support any Auburn coach regardless of his record.

Couple that with the shaky foundation Auburn athletics is already on due to our esteemed athletic director.  He sends e-mails out making fans think Auburn is tops in everything when the truth is much different.  Auburn was dead last in the SEC West in football.  It will be close to dead last in basketball, not that it has anything to do with Bruce Pearl.  Pearl is a great coach but he now understands what a complete disaster Auburn basketball is after years of neglect under Jacob and his predecessors.  Again Auburn Arena was only built because it was too expensive to renovate the Beard-Eaves mausoleum again.

Pearl will leave the first good chance he gets and I do not blame him.  Finally we have Auburn baseball which already looks like a last place unit.  How many baseball coaches has Jacobs hired?  He made the worst hire in Auburn basketball history before lucking out with Pearl and almost all his all-star football assistant coach hires are gone.  If Malzahn flames out are we going to let this guy run another football coaching search?  Or basketball coach search?  Or a fourth baseball coach search?  Of course right now he is too busy patting himself on the back for his fifteen million dollar scoreboard or his brilliant new plans which include blowing another five million dollars on some outpost for the SEC Network. 

I do not think Auburn will be back on solid ground till there is a change of leadership at the top of both the school and the athletic department.  Until then Auburn athletics will remain on a shaky foundation.  There will be a lot of talk about success but not many championships to back it up.  The men's major sports are the first and main indicator and Auburn has not had any sustained success in any of them during Jacob's tenure.  He better be on his knees every night giving thanks for Cam Newton and those guys in the Georgia secondary not batting that ball down in 2013...

As for this coming football season, I think it will be better.  I think Sean White will be the starter with John Franklin playing an expanded "wildcat" role that may throw the ball some.  I think Jovon Robinson and Kerryon Johnson will be good.  We sure know that Malzahn will run the ball plenty.  The passing game will be a little better than last year.  The big key on offense is how good those tackles will be and will Malzahn try to keep running out of those three-wide sets without throwing the ball a whole lot.  What am I saying?  Of course he will.

I assume he will run the exact same thing he has always run, and with us being a bit better plus finally maybe having a decent defense that will give us a winning season.  However I certainly do not have any championship expectations.  I think Auburn will be better but will still lose to Clemson, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama.  If the Tigers have an upset in one of those games they will probably give it back against someone unexpected like Texas A&M in 2014.  That will put us at Malzahn's norm outside of 2010 and 2013 and that is 7-5.  The same record he had in 2009 and 2011 as offensive coordinator and the average of the last two seasons. 

Maybe this football team will surprise and hit 8-4 but the bottom line is Auburn will not be in Atlanta and will most likely lose to Bama again.  I am not sure where that puts Malzahn's job security because I am not sure why anyone would expect any better than that given his track record the last two seasons.  Unless John Franklin is the next Cam Newton or Auburn has two great offensive tackles appear out of nowhere I just do not see any other outcome.  Malzahn's job security will remain like the state of the program and that is again tenuous.

WAR CARL LAWSON AND NOW WAR EAGLE!!!

Read the last post on the Birmingham Bowl...  HELL READ ANY POST FROM ME ON THIS STUPID SEASON.  By the end of this miserable season I was a DEAD MAN WALKING football-wise.  In fact I phoned in a message to my best Auburn buddy (who should receive co-writers credit for this blog) today about my RESIGNATION about the state of Auburn football and the state of Auburn sports in general.  I still do not like Jay Gogue or Jay Jacobs or Gus Malzahn but I will tell you this I FREAKING LOVE CARL LAWSON.  I AM READY TO RUN THROUGH A BRICK WALL AFTER HE TWEETED IMAGES FROM THIS SCENE TODAY ABOUT WHETHER HE IS GOING PRO...

 

I'M NOT LEAVING (disclaimer: f-bombs in you tube scene but it is worth it in the context of if Lawson is leaving Auburn and going pro)

Of course Shon Coleman just tweeted he IS leaving but he is NOT getting me down, not tonight.  I never thought for a moment Lawson was coming back.  His body stats and potential alone should put him fairly high on the NFL draft boards.  Lawson just pulled me out of my Auburn grave.  LAWSON MAKES ME WANT TO WATCH FREAKING AUBURN FOOTBALL AGAIN NEXT YEAR!!!

WAR CARL LAWSON AND WAR EAGLE!!!

2015 Birmingham Bowl Review: Defensive Stand

Birmingham Bowl MVP Jovon Robinson

Auburn 31  Memphis 10.  Well the game went pretty much as expected when Auburn had the ball.  I knew Gus would run the ball close to 60 times and not throw much against the smallish Memphis defense and that is exactly what happened.  However I certainly did not expect the Auburn defense to play that well.  I will have to join the many other Auburn sites in congratulating the defensive coaches especially interim coordinator Lance Thompson on a job well done.  I saw the highlights from the Memphis win over Ole Miss, Paxton Lynch was awesome in that game.  You have to give credit to the Auburn defense for making him look like a bum yesterday.  

It is also definitely hard to get a team that had a disappointing season that ended with losses to its major rivals up for a bottom-of-the-barrel bowl game.  The players are college students that ssshhhh would really rather go home on Christmas break than go through practices for the Birmingham Bowl.  However the coaches were still able to get the team to play hard even with all that going on.  Auburn certainly did not play that hard earlier this year in the Outback Bowl.  I knew Gus wanted this win bad though for that winning season.  That is always a big deal for a coach.

Now of course they did play a much better opponent in the Outback Bowl and Auburn has tons more talent than Memphis and should beat them like that.  Ole Miss should too but ran into a hot team on a down day.  The coaches and the players should get their due credit but every Auburn site desperate for something positive to happen to this football team is of course taking it too far.  It is always better to win than to lose but none of Auburn's current issues were solved yesterday.  In fact all of Auburn's issues on offense were on full display yesterday.  They were just obscured by the small Memphis defense and the Auburn defensive effort.

With that said lets get to the good, the bad and the ugly from the 2015 Birmingham Bowl...

THE GOOD
This was like I said above the Auburn defense.  This defense held Memphis to only 13 first downs and only 205 yards of total offense (!!!).  They held top NFL prospect Paxton Lynch to only 16 of 37 passes completed for only 108 yards (!!!).  On top of that they also held Memphis to under 100 yards rushing.  Finally, Memphis only scored because of Auburn turnovers on offense.  The defense basically pitched a shutout.  That is pretty much complete domination and a great accomplishment against any team.  It has been a long time since an Auburn defense turned in a performance like that.

Also good is that Auburn coach Gus Malzahn after the game confirmed that a defensive coordinator had finally been hired in Kevin Steele though rumors had already leaked before the game.  Steele was the LSU defensive coordinator this past season and is a veteran experienced coach.  Most Auburn fans are calling this a big win.  I am not as convinced.  People will call me negative but I said the same things when LSU hired him a year ago.  Steele is a good position coach and recruiter but has absolutely nothing good on his resume as a defensive coordinator or head coach. 

Steele was defensive coordinator at Bama during Saban's first year before being demoted and then turned in three poor years as defensive coordinator at Clemson before being fired.  Before that he went 1-31 in the Big 12 as Baylor's head coach.  He turned in a decent season this year at LSU but in the three critical games in November his defense gave up 30 or more points in all of them and LSU lost to Bama, Arkansas and Ole Miss.  The facts are the facts people, there is nothing in this guy's resume that says he will be a good defensive coordinator, nothing.  I guess it is still a win as I think he is better than most of the other candidates but it is not near the win or sure thing people are thinking it is. 

The other good from the game was the Auburn running attack.  Jovon Robinson took MVP honors with a lot of hard running and had 126 yards on 27 carries and a touchdown.  Peyton Barber finished his solid season breaking the 1000 yard barrier.  That makes it seven years in a row Auburn has had a 1000 yard rusher.  Kudos to Barber... the guy worked extremely hard all season,  carried the team to some wins early and from all reports is a great person.  He is the kind of guy that personifies Auburn football to me and he would be my offensive MVP of the season.  Carl Lawson is the best player on defense but I would actually go with Montravious Adams as our defensive MVP.  The guy was a warrior in the trenches all year long.  The question now is if he and Lawson are turning pro.

THE BAD
The Auburn Wing-T offense bullied and finally wore down the Memphis defense.  Just like all year if Auburn can run the ball they have a chance to win.  Just like all year the passing game was pretty much a joke.  When your punter has the longest completion on the day I think that pretty much says it all.  I understand everyone hates Jeremy Johnson but I do not understand bringing back a rusty Sean White for the bowl game.  Other than two disastrous series against Georgia he had not played since October.  That just does not make any sense to me and sure enough he tossed two horrible interceptions, one a pick-six.

I will say a couple of his incompletions were on the coaching staff as they were one-read plays Gus runs every game and the other team can usually see from a mile away like the wheel route to the running back.  The Auburn passing game was bad in this game just like all season and ended the season ranked 102nd out of 128 NCAA FBS teams.  Unfortunately it does not seem like it will ever change under Gus Malzahn.  Auburn will always be as he has said himself a "run-based play action team".  He has made it clear, he is not changing.  I guess I need to stop whining about it. 

THE UGLY
That brings us to the ugly and that is Auburn's chances of turning this around next season running this offense regardless of defensive improvement.  It is just not rocket science.  Auburn's best years under Malzahn as coordinator and head coach were of course 2010 and 2013.  Yes in both instances the team had a dynamic playmaker at quarterback but also had the pieces all lined up around those stars.  First both teams featured a very good senior-laden offensive line.  They also had very good veteran H-backs.  In 2010 it was unsung hero Eric Smith and in 2013 it was juggernaut Jay Prosch. 

Both teams featured very good tight ends.  In 2010 it was sophomore playmaker Phillip Lutzenkirchen and in 2013 it was C.J. Uzomah and Brandon Fulse.  Finally they had stars at running back and wide receiver.  All the stars had to line up to win a championship in those years.  Now that is true of almost all championships but not all.  I think you have to have a philosophy but you have to tailor it to your personnel.  Every year regardless of the personnel Gus Malzahn is determined to run his Wing-T power run offense from the shotgun formation.  This season he stubbornly tried to run it without a tight end or experienced H-back.  He tried to power run from a three-wide set most of the time.  That is just dumb in my opinion.

Again Auburn did not have the personnel to execute this power-run offense.  I am all for it when Auburn has the personnel but they have not.  I am not saying pass all the time, I am not even saying pass half the time.  I am just saying throw the ball around 25 to 30 times a game.  The last two seasons Auburn has had a lot of playmakers at wide receiver.  The Tigers also have had some running backs that are very versatile and are great receivers out of the back field.  They were all criminally underused.  All I hear is bragging about 1000 yard rushers but when was the last time Auburn had a 1000 yard wide receiver? (NOTE: It was Ronny Daniels in Tub's first season in 1999 but even then it was only because Auburn had no running backs). 

Next season Gus is going to run this exact same offense.  There will be promises and innuendo in the offseason but come on people has anything changed since 2009?  Gus will run the same thing.  Auburn may or may not have a good offensive line depending on the decisions of juniors Shon Coleman and Avery Young.  If both go pro, then Auburn will not have a top tier offensive line.  The Tigers just do not have many great tackles waiting in the wings.  Braden Smith could step in if only one leaves but things look bad if both leave.  H-backs Chandler Cox and Kamryn Pettway should be better next year but Auburn still has absolutely no one with any experience at all at tight end. 

THE LAST WORD
Throw in a brutal schedule in 2016 to all that and what do you get?  Most likely a 7-5 team.  Again though that is who Gus Malzahn is unless the stars align.  You average the 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2015 regular seasons and you get... 7-5.  I looked at the blocking above, it might be good but it will not be good enough to run over really good teams.  The same quarterbacks as this year return along with a second string JUCO quarterback than can run the ball.  As for catching the ball Auburn loses start Ricardo Louis and right now things look pretty thin.  Only Jason Smith and Tony Stevens stand out and it is not like they had a whole lot of catches this season.

On the positive side, Auburn will return all these running backs except maybe Roc Thomas who has been rumored to transfer.  Auburn will have a better offense than this season most likely but again will not be good enough to run over the really good teams.  However Gus will try, you can bet the house on that.  I have really grown weary of watching this one-dimensional no-imagination offense so I am not really looking forward to next season right now at all.  It will just be more of the same "run-based play-action offense".  Oh well, at least the Tigers ended this season and hopefully their history at Legion Field with a win.  Happy New Year and War Eagle.

Down in the Dumps

The Auburn football program has entered the long, dark and uncertain offseason.  It all starts with their "reward" for getting bowl eligible and that is a trip back to the dank confines of Legion Field in Birmingham to play Memphis.  Auburn also enters bowl practice once again looking for a defensive coordinator as Will Muschamp has left Auburn for the third and final time to go to South Carolina as head coach.  Finally, to make things worse Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs and head coach Gus Malzahn appear to be completely bungling the whole process of finding a new defensive leader.

They seem unable to come to grips with the fact that Malzahn is on the hot seat next season after he and his staff have underperformed for two seasons in a row.   On top of that, there is the expected early exodus of several key junior players in the trenches on both sides of the ball plus a tough schedule awaiting in 2016.  Auburn has to open the season with the current #1 football team in the country, Clemson. The Tigers then close the season on the road in Athens and Tuscaloosa.  However home and away did not matter much this last season since Auburn was unable to even beat either of the Mississippi schools at home.  The Tigers will have to go on the road in Mississippi this next season and take on LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M at home.

With this in mind, no proven defensive coordinator in his prime is going to come to Auburn no matter how much money Jay Jacobs throws at him.  I cannot believe these morons did not offer Travarius Robinson the coordinator position.  The guy is the #1 rated recruiter in the nation according to ESPN and is a good up-and-coming coach AND AN AUBURN ALUM.  The smart move was to take a calculated risk and make him the coordinator with veterans like Lance Thompson and Rodney Garner there to help and mentor.  The key thing is GETTING GOOD PLAYERS and keep continuity in the defensive staff.  It was obviously the best move to make in Auburn's current situation yet Jacobs and Malzahn managed to screw it up.

They let Robinson go and then humiliated themselves trying to buy Florida State defensive coordinator Charles Kelly.  As I am writing this they are now fumbling around trying to find some second tier guy to come in who will be nowhere close to as good as just hiring TRob.  Honestly you really have to wonder what is going through their heads.  Did they really think they were going to go out and grab some super coach?  Again, they seem to be refusing to face reality.  They can say till they are blue in the face how things are not that bad but the simple fact is Auburn is 2-9 in their last eleven SEC games and 0-5 at home in that stretch.

So now it looks like Auburn will be starting over on defense for the sixth time since 2008.  I am not sure if Auburn will ever have an actual good defense again.  Of course it might not matter much as it is likely Auburn will continue to run the same thing on offense with no changes.  Gus Malzahn has to be the most stubborn person I have ever seen and I will believe he will change anything on offense when I see it.  I wrote the following paragraph following the Outback Bowl in January:

"I am now starting to doubt whether things will change next season with Jeremy Johnson hopefully coming in for Marshall.  I fear another ridiculous quarterback "race" and the coaches continuing to try and run the ball the majority of the time.  It is obvious Auburn should be more balanced on offense but like I said above it was obvious this year as well.  Again, Malzahn is at a crossroad, will he take this chance to evolve and innovate the Auburn offense or will he continue to stubbornly stick with the 2013 playbook?  I believe the answer to that question and again him and his staff's ability to get better players on defense will determine his long term fate at Auburn."

The answer to the offensive question I posed in that paragraph was a resounding NO.  Malzahn has not and I believe will not change his offense.  Auburn's personnel might improve but I am wondering how much difference it will make.  The defenses around the SEC appear to have caught up with him and you just cannot beat anybody good without a solid passing game.  Auburn might have a better quarterback next season.  The running backs and H-backs should be better as well.  However the Tigers might be starting over at both tackle positions and have absolutely no one with any experience at all at tight end plus a ton of question marks at wide receiver.  I do not see a dominating offense coming out of that mix.

I guess I am getting ahead of myself though as Auburn still has one more game to play this season.  I have heard a few Auburn fans waxing nostalgic about Birmingham's Legion Field, Bama's alternate home stadium for so long and Auburn's bowl location this season.  I was there to see the last four "half and half" Iron Bowl games at Legion Field.  As I have reminded people many times though it was never really split evenly.  It was more like Auburn getting a third, Bama getting a third and the city of Birmingham getting a third.  That always guaranteed more Bama fans.  Legion Field was always an advantage for Bama especially after it was changed to artificial turf in 1970.

My first game at Legion Field was the 1984 "Wrong Way Bo" Iron Bowl.  As I have stated in a previous post: "It was a beautiful day. I remember wearing my brand new Auburn satin jacket to the stadium but then it being too warm to keep it on. I remember being so excited walking to Legion Field. Of course as soon as we got seated I heard the Bama band playing a cheer and the fans chanting something after it. As a young guy at my first Iron Bowl I was at that time not familiar with any of Bama’s traditions. I soon figured out that the cheer was “Rammer Jammer” and they were chanting “we’re going to beat the hell out of you”. It is still to this day the most obnoxious classless cheer. Congrats Bama."

I was there the next year for the Van Tiffin kick (when I thought it could not get any worse than "Wrong Way Bo") but got even in the last two "half and half" games in 1986 and 1987 with "The Reverse" and "Shut down, Shut out, Shut up".  Finally after the 1987 game the series went to home-and-home even though many people said it would never happen.  Thanks Coach Dye.  Unfortunately during negotiations Auburn had to throw the city of Birmingham a bone to get the deal done and that was to play one more "home game" against Bama at Legion Field.  That game was in 1991 and I thought it would be my last visit to Legion Field.  I had not been back since the 1987 game.

The 1991 game was just a microcosm of the whole season that year,  Auburn lost to Bama and Gene Stallings 13-6 in an ugly boring game to cap a 5-6 season.  I remember driving away with my friend and fellow Auburn student and tossing my cap out the window in disgust.  I sure had no idea I would be returning later that night.  We met other friends for food and drink and I was planning to spend the night in Birmingham before returning to Auburn the next morning.  I was starting to feel better out with my friends when I get a call from my brother.  His ride down had left him and his friend and they were still down at Legion Field.  They needed to be picked up and taken back to Huntsville.

I then had to drive back to Legion Field after dark.  The football traffic had cleared out hours ago but something bad was going on as police cars with their lights on were everywhere and there seemed to be a lot of angry people milling about.  My brother and his friend were pitiful sights cowering at a corner waiting to be picked up.  I got them and we got out of dodge quickly.  It then started pouring rain and continued to pour on me all the way to Huntsville.  A rotten day that had been getting better turned into a rotten night.

I thought that would be my last visit to that awful stadium but it was not.  My last visit was in 1994 in one of the last three Iron Bowls played there at all.  It was only the second time in the entire series that both teams were undefeated (Auburn was 9-0-1 after a tie with Georgia).  My brother was still a student and got me a student ticket to sit with him.  The powers-that-be at Bama put the Auburn students in temporary bleachers in the end zones.  Unfortunately the bleachers were a bit higher than the edge of real end zone seating thus completely screwing over the people sitting on that row.  Compounding that problem was the fact Auburn students stand the whole game.  That is just how it is for big games.  However the Bama fans sitting in that first row of real end zone seating did NOT want to stand up for the whole game and thus a game-long argument ensued. 

I was "lucky" enough to be in one of those top bleacher seats and while our row attempted to make peace with the Bama fans, the drunk fraternity guys in front of us did not.  A fight nearly broke out with us in the middle.  As soon as I sat down, I wondered why I came.  First I had to deal with that whole conflict nearly the entire game.  Second I was not watching as the kickers warmed up and only my brother blocking the ball at the last second kept a football from most likely breaking my nose.  Finally Bama just destroyed Auburn in the first quarter running out to a 21-0 lead.  After they scored to make it 21-0 I thought I was in football hell.  It was simply awful.

Auburn came back to make it a close game but still lost 21-14 when Frank Sanders came up inches short on a fourth down conversion play on a last minute do-or-die drive.  The Bama fans were obviously very fired up as they won the game which gave them an undefeated 11-0 season.  We got heckled pretty good walking back to our car.  I just told my brother and his friends to ignore it and walk out with class.  We did, for the most part (-:  When I drove away from that one I swore I would never return to Legion Field and I do not think one last chance to see this Auburn team is going to change my mind.

Frankly I think Auburn should have turned down a bowl this year and gotten to work on recruiting.  I keep hearing about how "valuable" bowl practice is but I don't buy it.  It sure did not help this team going through it last season.  Auburn simply has nothing to gain in this game.  They are expected to beat Memphis and will get no credit by winning the game.  On the other hand, Memphis is fired up about a chance to knock another SEC team off.  Their quarterback Paxton Lynch could be the first pick in the NFL draft.  This guy is most likely going to shred the Auburn defense worse than Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon did in Auburn's last bowl game. 

So in summary we have... 

• a 2-6 SEC season that included an 0-4 record at home...
• lost Will Muschamp and TRob who were maybe Auburn's best coaches and recruiters...
• made a huge mistake by not promoting TRob, trying to buy Charles Kelly and now bumbling around trying to find a second tier guy that will not be near as good...
•  received and accepted an embarrassing invitation to play in the Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field...
• a good chance that a number of Auburn's best players will leave early or possibly transfer...
• a ridiculously hard schedule on top of all this next season.

I am definitely down in the dumps about Auburn football.  I sure hope Bruce Pearl and the Auburn basketball team can give Auburn sports fans something to cheer about in the next few months.