Which one is it going to be? My first thoughts on this season were that Auburn would not be a title contender but would be a better team. I was thinking Auburn has a little more experience in certain areas and is due to have the ball bounce their way this season. I was thinking 8-4 and bowling in Atlanta or Florida. I was ready to create this preview and then boom Jovon Robinson was kicked off the team. Auburn people also seemed to be split on how much that will hurt the Tigers. Many people believe Kamryn Pettway will step up like Peyton Barber did last season and shoulder the load. Other people do not believe a second string fullback last season is going to dominate as the star running back.
I believe it will hurt. Auburn was a better football team last season after Robinson started running well. However I still think the deciding factor is Gus Malzahn's stubborn playcalling. This could be a good thing if it pushed Auburn to run a balanced offense but after the last two seasons I do not believe Gus Malzhan will ever run a balanced offense. In fact I think the Auburn offense will look the exact same as it has the last three seasons. Gus Malzahn has not changed his playcalling at all, The only thing that has changed is his personnel and opposing defensive coordinators have a lot more film on his tendencies.
Auburn had the perfect personnel to run Malzahn's shotgun-Wing T power running offense in 2013. He had maybe the best left tackle in Auburn history in Greg Robinson who would be the second pick in the NFL draft along with other great players on the offensive line and at tight end. He would also have maybe the best blocking fullback in Auburn history in Jay Prosch who would also go on to the NFL. He also had a great running back in Tre Mason and the best quarterback for his attack outside Cam Newton in Nick Marshall. Finally he had a game breaking super freak in wide receiver Sammie Coates for the few deep passes you have to hit to keep running like that. He had veterans everywhere on that offense and they were perfect for his scheme. Auburn would then as everyone remembers win the SEC and almost win the whole thing.
Of course then as I always like to point out, Florida State in that national championship game would be the first ones to exploit the weaknesses in Malzahn's playcalling. Auburn in their hurry-up ALWAYS runs the ball when they get a first down. Auburn would have won the game with a few play-action passes on those hurry-up first down plays but Gus stubbornly ran the ball. He has not stopped since. In 2014, Auburn lost a large part of their monstrous blocking when Robinson and Prosch left. However they gained a great player in wide receiver Duke Williams to team up with Coates and an improved Nick Marshall passing-wise. If Malzahn would have balanced his play calling a bit over the season, Auburn might have played for it all again.
The defense definitely let Auburn down in 2014 but the offense died trying to run the ball too much against Mississippi State and Georgia. Only once in 2014 did Malzahn unshackle the passing game and that was against Bama and the result was over 600 yards total offense on $aban and Bama in their stadium. Auburn then came into last season with another good offensive line but did not have ONE single game of experience from the H-backs or tight ends who are essential to a power-running attack. On top of that Auburn's only strength on offense was a large group of decent wide receivers.
None of that mattered though as Gus returned to running the ball most of the time and only throwing when he absolutely had to. Auburn continued to try and power run behind a three wide receiver set when everyone knew that he just was not going to throw out of it very much. It was hard to watch. Everyone blames the quarterbacks and they were not that good but most successful offenses throw the ball on first down half the time (Bama under Lane Kiffin are right at 50%). Auburn hovers between running the ball 70% to 80% most games on first down. Malzahn continually waited till third and long to throw the ball.
I also suspect that Auburn runs the same passing plays over and over like they do running plays. For example, Malzahn loves calling the wheel route to the H-back once a game and last season you could see the other teams would read it immediately and that H-back would be covered up. Malzahn also got White sacked several times running that stupid slow-developing double play-action play (fake to running back and fake to reversing wide receiver) on an obvious passing down. Those are just the two that were obvious to me, again I believe there are others.
I have read other Auburn writers pointing out Sean White having some great games last season but in all those games Auburn was behind or it was close game where Auburn was continually stopped for no gain on first down. He did do some good but the overall offensive attack was still predicated on running the ball most of the time. Malzahn, other than the 2014 Iron Bowl, never continues to throw the ball. I am not talking about being Mike Leach here, I am talking about some games depending on your personnel and the opposition being much more balanced. Bama with monstrous Derrick Henry still averaged more passing yards per game than rushing. Auburn has been the opposite last season and probably every other season Malzahn has been at the helm.
Malzahn and Auburn in general seems to think a great passing game is bad. You always have to run the ball the majority of the time. That is the reason Auburn only has two wide receivers that have had 1000 yards in a season in the history of the school. So coming back to 2016... I think Malzahn is going to do exactly the same thing this year. "We are a run-based play-action team". That is a quote directly from Malzahn and he obviously means it. I thought it was just describing a certain season but it appears to be his prime directive for all seasons regardless if he has the right personnel for it or not.
That is why Auburn has under achieved the last two seasons and I think it will continue to be the reason Auburn cannot beat the big boys this season. Fortunately for Malzahn I think Auburn will be able to run on many of it's opponents this season and Malzahn can always beat somebody he can run on. However I think Auburn will struggle as they did last season against the big strong defenses like LSU, Georgia and Bama usually have. It will be especially tough as it will be for all future Auburn teams in even years when the Tigers have to play Georgia and Bama on the road at the end of the season while Jordan Hare Stadium lies dark and dormant in November.
Auburn has not played a big game at home in an even year in November since Cam Newton and company beat Georgia to win the SEC West. Right now it looks like they never will again thanks to AD Jay Jacobs "helping the conference". I notice there is no way Bama would ever let Auburn and Tennessee be paired together like that on their schedule. This single act by Jacobs will continue to haunt Auburn football for a long time if it is not fixed. The season ticket holders who have a job are sure getting hosed this season with five straight home games to open the season. It is really tough to go back and forth to Auburn five weeks in a row.
I see Auburn beating Arkansas State, Texas A&M, Louisiana Monroe, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Alabama A&M. That is seven wins right there. Texas A&M and Arkansas could upset the Tigers and the loss of Jovon Robinson could raise it's ugly head in those games but I still think Auburn is the better team this season and is due to win some home conference games. Things get dicey after that. However if the ball bounces right and of course depending on the opposing run defense I see Auburn upsetting one of these remaining five teams on the schedule. I think the loss of Robinson will stick out more in these games but some of these teams have issues as well.
Clemson has a history a lot like Auburn. They rarely do well as a favorite and while they still have a great team they also lost some great players from their national runner-up team last season. I think having to play a solid Auburn team in Auburn to open the season is a tough assignment for anyone. I would favor Clemson but I would not be surprised a lot if Auburn pulled the upset. I also think Auburn has a good chance against Ole Miss. They return maybe the best quarterback in the conference in Chad Kelly but lost a LOT of good players off their Sugar Bowl champion team last season.
I do not think this Auburn team has much of a chance against LSU or Bama. I think this is where Malzahn's play calling and Auburn's deficiencies at quarterback will catch up with them. I do not think Auburn can consistently run on either of these teams and I do not think any of Auburn's quarterbacks are good enough to beat them through the air. If the Auburn defense is as good as advertised then I think Auburn can hopefully keep it close but I just do not think the offense is good enough. Finally there is Georgia. The Georgia game is the hardest for me to get a read on with a new coach and new quarterback.
Kirby Smart was a great coordinator at Bama and Mark Richt had his deficiencies in other places but not against Auburn. Mark Richt dominated Auburn over fifteen years going 10-5 and it could have been worse. It took last second plays in 2001, 2005 and 2013 for Auburn to win and two of the greatest teams in Auburn history to win the other two in 2004 and 2010. I simply cannot see Kirby Smart doing that well against Auburn. However they do have a dominant back in Nick Chubb if he can make it to the Auburn game and the home field advantage has definitely kicked in for this series in the last decade. Auburn has not won in Athens since 2005 so I think you have to favor Georgia but Auburn might have a decent chance in this one.
Now a quick look over this year's team... For the first time in a long time, Auburn is supposed to have a good defense. It seems like forever since that has happened. However Auburn has proven talent on the defensive line and in the secondary. I think Carl Lawson, Montravius Adams and Carlton Davis could be some of the best in the country. The Tigers also have a ton of good recruits on the line. The coaches have done a good job stockpiling the defensive line after struggling with depth for so many years. I mean at least some of these big time recruits have to come through right?!? There are a bunch of them that everyone else wanted including the #1 recruit in the country two years ago, Byron Cowart. Cowart and a bunch of the interior linemen got some good experience last season and should be much better this year.
The Tigers also have a ton of solid experienced players in the secondary. If the line is better you have to think they will surely benefit and be better as well. I look over the roster and see: Carlton Davis, Rudy Ford, Tray Matthews, Josh Holsey, Stephen Roberts, Nick Ruffin, etc... Again these guys are good experienced players. The only question mark on defense is at linebacker where you do not see the experience you do at the other positions. However Tre Williams looked better at the end of last season and T.J. Neal transferred in after a big year at Illinois. If the linebacking can just be solid and as always if Auburn can avoid injuries, it sure looks like the Auburn nation will see a real Auburn defense for the first time in a long time.
Things do not look as good on offense. The line is solid but you have two new and inexperienced tackles in Austin Golson and probably Robert Leff and that is a big red flag right there. Auburn also still has zero experience at tight end since Jalen Harris got hurt last season and the tackle they put in to sub for him transferred. The interior of the Auburn line is the strong and experienced but those guys cannot do it all. They will finally have some help at H-back with Chandler Cox and Kamryn Pettway stronger and a full season of experience under their belts. They struggled at times last season but hopefully they will be much better this season.
It looks like both Cox and Pettway will also be in the lineup a lot at the main running back slot as well. These two players appear to constitute the bulk of the Auburn power running game now. As I stated above I am still not sure about Pettway as the main guy at running back but I guess it does not matter as there is no one else to do it. One thing is for sure, an injury to either one of these guys could be devastating. The star outside the tackles and Auburn's premiere playmaker will be running back Kerryon Johnson. He showed flashes of being a great player last season and should only be better this season. The problem is that every defense will be keying on him every play especially if he only comes in game when we are going to use him.
That is another problem that people seemingly just do not understand and that is offensive substitution packages. All I hear is how Gus wants to get back to the hurry-up but you simply cannot run a hurry-up offense anymore substituting like Auburn does. Basically the defense is allowed time to sub if the offense subs. The only way to really run the hurry-up now is to not sub for a series but Auburn seems to sub on just about every play. Another problem is that all these substitution packages also many times telegraph what you are going to run. I have heard more than once that other teams can make a high percentage guess on what Auburn is going to run according to who is in the game. I know I can guess many times or I can tell you beyond a shadow of a doubt Auburn will not throw to a certain wide receiver. Which brings us to the wide receiver slot...
Wide receiver is obviously a big question mark. It looks like Auburn will open the season starting the veterans that do not appear to have game breaking speed or athleticism. Of course I guess job #1 for them in Malzahn's offense is blocking. Auburn has several top flight wide receiver recruits coming in but I am not sure what kind of impact they can make in an offense that throws as little as Auburn. Auburn only completed 179 passes for the entire season in 2015. I guess the main thing Auburn needs is someone like Sammie Coates or Ricardo Louis who can stretch the field for those occasional bombs if Auburn has a quarterback that can even throw them. That brings us finally to the biggest question of the pre-season...
Who will start at quarterback to open the season? I have never had a doubt. While I have seen others go back and forth I have never wavered. I have thought it was going to be Sean White as soon as the bowl game ended. Once the coaches changed to Sean White last season they did not waver in their commitment to him. They brought him in on one leg in the Georgia game when it was obvious he should not be in there. They started him in the bowl game after he had not played in almost two months other than that series in the Georgia game. They were never going back to Jeremy Johnson and I think they knew Franklin was too raw from the start but wanted that option for spot duty this season and hope that maybe he can start next season if White does not live up to expectations this season.
I think they will bring in John Franklin for wildcat duty as Malzahn still loves that antiquated package but White is the man. I think they have dragged it out to make sure none of them leave because they might need all of them. They need some athleticism at the quarterback position for certain situations so they need Franklin. I think they wanted Johnson to hang around because White could easily get hurt again and it is nice to have an experienced senior as a back up no matter how maligned he is. It all makes sense. I cannot fault any of their thinking there.
I think Sean White is a decent quarterback but I just do not think he can lead you to a championship or beat Bama. I just do not think he is good enough. However he should do a decent job in most of the other games as I talked about above. I think again he could be better of course if we ran a more balanced offense but that is not going to happen. The offense is going to look just like last season but hopefully White himself will be better after getting a bunch of playing time last season. The X factor is going to be those new tackles, the tight end spot and the wide receivers. I just think it is going to be hard to run consistently with inexperienced tackles and tight ends.
The biggest thing Auburn has going for it is the rest of the SEC West outside LSU and Bama losing a lot of good players. Again I think that opens up a couple more wins for the Tigers. I think I am going to stay with an 8-4 prediction but as always there are a lot of variables out there with the biggest being injuries. I see a bit of sunshine peeking through but it is still very cloudy out there and there is still a chance of rain. Let's tee it up and find out. War Eagle.
No comments:
Post a Comment