Week 5 Picks

We finally hit October and here in Alabama it is finally starting to feel like football weather. The weather gets cooler and the football games get better. Most of the teams in the SEC have played most of their allotment of creampuffs and now face a month of SEC contests. Except for South Carolina vs. South Carolina St every game on the schedule is a good one. Only Florida has a bye this week and it may be the luckiest bye week in history as Tim "Superman" Tebow finally gets hurt and Florida's next game is at LSU. I went 4-1 last week which puts me at 13-4 on the season for games against BCS opponents.

Auburn at Tennessee...
The picture for this post came from the fact that I feel like the last man on earth that doesn't believe Auburn is an unstoppable juggernaut. I pretty much laid it out in my last post and my Auburn ties in my initial post for those who might believe I am not a "true" Auburn fan. Like I said earlier this week, me, a "negative" fan, already thought and predicted we would go 4-0 before the season started. Therefore while our offense has been a great and unexpected surprise the wins were not. Finally we are to a game I thought we would lose before the season. A game on the road against an upper-echelon SEC opponent.

This will be Heisman candidate QB Chris Todd's first game in one of the larger SEC enemy outposts. I am finally to the point where I can't stomach reading much less writing another glowing analysis of our offense. Please hit any of the links to the right and you will find as much of that as you can stand. Again I am not being a "hater" but I can only stand so much of that before we actually beat a big SEC team on the road. War Blog Eagle writes today that only Auburn fans who went through last year can understand why Gus Malzahn is such a genius. I went through last year and anybody who doubts my suffering from last year needs to talk to my wife. I do think Malzahn is a genius but I still have my doubts about this Auburn team and Heisman candidate Chris Todd. I definitely appear to be the last person that does though.

But hey maybe I am a "hater", maybe I am negative, maybe I am the last one on board, maybe this game will prove me wrong. I will definitely concede to being 1/6th wrong about the season if we win this one. I do think the match up of Malzahn vs. Kiffin the Elder is one of the most interesting matchups of the season. Can Auburn score 30 points on the Tennessee D? Auburn has won 53 consecutive games when scoring 30 or more points in a game, dating back to a 56-49, four-overtime loss to Georgia in 1996 (I was at that game, yeeesch). Thirty points seems to be the benchmark. If you read everyone else but me the answer to that question seems to be a resounding YES.

On the other hand you have the beleaguered UT offense vs. the on-again/off-again Auburn defense. This is where the game seemingly goes to Auburn as Jonathan Crompton is the worst QB in the SEC right now. I heard there are UT fans who consider Crompton UT's worst QB ever and possibly the worst SEC QB ever. I don't think he has dropped that low but he has been a big liability. However UT can hide him some using their more traditional offense. You have to believe Auburn will be able to snag a turnover or two looking at Crompton's past history and that being the Auburn defense's strong point. On the flip side though you have to think UT will be able to pull off a few big plays as well. Crompton will have one of his best chances to complete a pass or two when Auburn goes to their super soft zone. Can UT score 30 points? I don't think so but I do think they will get 20 or more.

So we are back to Auburn's offense. I hope to be proven wrong but until I see it I still can't believe it. I think the Auburn offense and especially Auburn QB Chris Todd will have their first tough outing against UT's defense. Conversely I think UT will be able to score just enough. If I am proven wrong I guess I will have to get on the bandwagon but until then...
TENNESSEE OVER AUBURN

LSU at Georgia...
LSU comes in undefeated but definitely looks like the weaker team. QB Jordan Jefferson has yet to have that breakthrough game and the defense led by DC John Chavis has disappointed. Meanwhile Georgia while having several weaknesses including their defense has rebounded from their season opening loss to Oklahoma St to win 3 solid games. I think the Georgia offense will be the best unit on the field and I don't see them losing this one at home.
GEORGIA OVER LSU

Ole Miss at Vandy...
Ole Miss tries to right their season after being the media's whipping boy because of their disappointing flop against South Carolina. Despite that game I think Ole Miss still has more playmakers on offense and defense than Vandy. It might not be pretty but I think the Mrs gets it done.
OLE MISS OVER VANDY

Bama at Kentucky...
This pains me to say but right now Bama will be heavily favored against the rest of the teams on their schedule. With Bama's offense playing well there are just not many teams that can score enough on their defense to have a shot. Certainly not Kentucky who got taken to the woodshed by Florida last week.
BAMA OVER KENTUCKY

Georgia Tech at Miss St...
This game is a lot more interesting than I thought it would be when the season started. Miss St is showing real life and real grit under new coach Dan Mullen. They regrouped after the Auburn debacle and beat Vandy on the road and had a win over LSU in their grasp. It doesn't appear yet that this group is ready to pack it in so Tech better expect a tough game. Meanwhile defenses are starting to catch up with Paul Johnson. The coaches and defenses in the top conferences are too good to be a one-trick pony. Johnson and Tech must find a way to integrate more passing into Johnson's triple-option attack. I am going to go with Tech but I think this will be a close one.
GEORGIA TECH OVER MISS ST

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (in Dallas)
Texas A&M comes in undefeated after playing absolutely nobody. Arkansas comes in after two tough losses to Georgia and Bama. I don't think Texas A&M has the defense like Bama to shut Arkansas down and I don't think Texas A&M has the offense like Georgia to outscore them. I am going with Arkansas in an absolute must-win game for the Razorbacks. Even though it is out-of-conference they need this win bad to get back on track and pull out a decent season.
ARKANSAS OVER TEXAS A&M

Finally I think South Carolina will be able to take care of South Carolina St. Check back Sunday for Auburn/UT reax. I am really looking forward to this game. We should know a lot more about Auburn after this one.

Finally!

I love finally getting to preseason practice after a long summer... I love getting the season going even against a La Tech... I think you get the point and what I am leading up to is I really love that first big SEC game that will show whether you are a contender or a pretender. For so many years that game was ALWAYS against UT and was usually the third game of the season. I loved doing it that way. You play a couple of lesser teams and get going forward and then it is time to find out what you are made of.

When the SEC went to divisions we lost this great rivalry with UT but gained an equally great rivalry with LSU. That game was put right in UT's place as usually the third game of the season and like the UT game it was usually that first tough SEC game that showed where you were. I hate that Auburn has let LSU force us into moving that game to later in the season where we will have a permanent back-loaded schedule. I simply HATE it.

Back to the UT game though. Well we may not play them every year anymore and this is the 5th game of the season but for this year this game is back to being the one that will show us where we are. It will be a true measuring stick. I am really looking forward to it. I know that UT is banged up and rebuilding but we are too. There are just so many similarities between the two programs right now and both programs really need this game for respect.

It will be interesting to see who is right starting this week. I have continued to say the jury is still out on this team. I feel like I am the only one as the rest of the Auburn (Blog) Nation has this team winning 8 games at the least. Some are even more delusional even speculating on a possible 11-0 start???!!!??? That ain't Koolaid, that is something a lot stronger.

Most Auburn fans have simply lost any shred of objectivity as they have caught "Gus-mania". All I read now is that UT is not that good, Arkansas is not that good, Ole Miss is not that good, LSU is not that good and Georgia is not that good. I do know that some or most of those teams do not appear to be as good as advertised but I can tell you that it is a mistake to try and neatly summarize a team and put them in a box and try to say as a fact how good they are. After watching SEC football for 30 years I know it doesn't work that way. I know from coaching youth sports in multiple team sports for 6 years it just doesn't work that way.

If you think we see the same UT team that played Ohio, you are wrong. If you think we are going to shutdown and beat Arkansas like Bama, you are wrong. If you think that Houston Nutt cannot get this Ole Miss team up for us and whip us, you are wrong (he did it multiple times with much worse Arkansas teams). If you think LSU is going to struggle against us at home like they did against Miss St, you are wrong.

The million dollar question is how good this Auburn team is against real SEC competition. People are losing their minds over our 4-0 start however I, a "negative" fan, predicted this when I thought Chizik and Todd stunk. Therefore I am not going crazy over this start. I continue to say I will be more convinced when we finally win a game that I didn't think we would win. Well here it is. I did not think we would beat UT before the season started. Do I now? Well I will wait for my picks post to answer that question but the point is I will believe a lot more in this team if they win Saturday night.

Week 4 Review

It was not a super exciting weekend but we did have a few surprises. Here are the three that jumped out to me:

1. SUPERMAN HURT. Tim Tebow finally found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. That sound you heard was a hundred thousand Florida fans inhaling at once. It sounds like he will be OK and it is just a concussion and Florida is REALLY lucky that they have an open week before going to LSU.

2. Bama disposes of Arkansas easily. Bama completely shutdown Ryan Mallett and the Razorback offense which is a good offense. As much as it pains me to say, Bama is hitting on all cylinders and I would probably pick them over Florida if they played right now. However there is alot of football to be played though between now and December.

3. Miss St should have beaten LSU. Thanks to some horrible playcalling Coach Dan Mullen managed to grab defeat out of the jaws of victory but State should have won. Two things here, you have to say State is better than people thought after winning against Vandy and nearly beating LSU. On the flip side, LSU is not looking good. The real mystery is where their running game including monster Charles Scott went.

What does all that mean? Pretty much that the waters parting for Bama again... So what did we see from Auburn last night? The Good, The Bad and The Ugly perfectly describes Auburn last night.

THE GOOD

The Auburn offense continued to shine as it ran up another 500 yards of offense and QB Chris Todd had 5 TDs. It was his best game to date and he did really throw some nice passes. However most of the time he had all day to throw against a young and not very good Ball St team. WR Terrell Zachary had an awesome game and WR Darvin Adams was money again as well. RBs Ben Tate and Ontario McCalebb had good nights (till they got McCalebb hurt on a stupid fake punt). The OL was OK. True frosh Josh Sullen kind of brought the whole line down but like everyone said, we just have nobody behind our starters. I sure hope Byron Isom's suspension is over next week. All-in-all a good night for the offense. They better get ready and quit patting themselves on the back though because the preseason is over and we will now see how good this Auburn team and this offense is starting next week in Knoxville.

THE BAD

The starting defense did pretty well but when we started subbing it got ugly. Ball St moved the ball pretty well and scored 30 points. I am sorry there are decent cream puffs, i.e. La Tech, and there are COMPLETE cream puffs and that would be Ball St. There is no way that team should have scored 30 points regardless of subbing, turnovers or whatever. It is very frustrating to watch our soft coverage and talent dropoff on defense. It is again obvious that Tuberville left the cupboard extremely bare and it now appears the problem could be worse on defense. Looking at the totals this defense has already given up it is hard to fathom what could happen this next month.

THE UGLY

I have really not said much about the special team so far. One or two games does not tell the story about a team's special teams. However when your special teams are THIS bad against Ball St you have big problems. Another dropped punt, playing musical chairs with the punt returners, bad kickoffs, bad coverage, etc... Our special teams are AWFUL or staying on theme UGLY. At this point I am not sure it is going to get a lot better. If we have not been good against the easy part of our schedule I have a hard time believing we are going to improve against better teams.

I am not a special teams coach and I am not sure how to fix most of these problems but I can offer some common sense advice on one of them. First of all, you NEVER start a true freshman as your punt returner. It is too crucial a position to trust it to a true freshman. Sooner or later you have to pick a guy and stick with him. I still think Mario Fannin can be that guy. He did not do great but again he is a proven playmaker. I think you keep coaching him and I believe he will turn it around.

Finally, thank goodness this ugly game is done and we can now find out how good we really are...

Week 4 Picks

We enter week 4 with a number of interesting storylines developing. Thebiggest one this week has been the fallout after the UT/Florida game. Both coaches continue to pop off or indirectly slam the other and the media continues to eat it up. The stupidest thing though is this whole deal that Florida is now not any good because they didn't beat UT 70-0(???). I mean here in Alabama and in other places some people are trying to act like Florida "lost". Ah the politics you have to play in a sport ruled by subjective polls. I went 3-2 last week and am 9-3 on the season for games against BCS opponents.

That is again why I love the SECCG. Nobody can screw you out of the SECCG, it is not subjective. Back to the UT/Florida game it also gives UT fans something to be fired up about. If they can just get a QB and a couple more playmakers to help the defense out they will be back up soon enough. However at this point it looks like Georgia is a solid #2 in the East. I know UK is 2-0 and got a pretty big win over Louisville last weekend but I still don't see them as asolid contender and they have Florida this weekend.

Georgia meanwhile didn't get the memo from the rest of the SEC that you only play ONE BCS out-of-conference foe per year. You schedule one and then grab 3 patsies. Georgia messed up and grabbed one patsy and THREE BCS out-of-conference foes in Oklahoma St, Arizona St and Georgia Tech. Throw in having the play Auburn and LSU from the West and I think they have the toughest entire schedule in the SEC.

Ball St at Auburn...

Ball St went 12-0 last year winning the MAC conference. This year there looks like there is a good chance they could go 0-12. There is really not much to say about this game. Auburn's only concern is injuries. They hope to get up big fast and play a lot of people. The only fly-in-the-ointment would be a forecast of rain for the second week in a row. This will be the 4th straight home game in a row in as many weeks. I bet there will be a lot of good seats available this weeken at Jordan Hare. AUBURN OVER BALL ST

Arkansas at Bama...

The high-flying Arkansas offensive attack rolls into T-town. Ryan Mallett looked like the real thing last week against Georgia once again throwing for over 300 yards and helping score over 40 points. Unfortunately his defense let him down and let Georgia score 50 points. It just does not look good for the Razorbacks. They will get some yards and points and it will not be the bloodletting it was last year but they will have a tough time against Bama. The Bama defense will make some big plays and should force some turnovers while the Arkansas defense that could not stop Georgia probably will not have better luck against Bama. BAMA OVER ARKANSAS

Florida at Kentucky...

The only matchup of undefeated teams this week. Florida comes into Kentucky after their win/loss against UT last week. It is obvious from this vantage point why Florida's offense is not as good as the last few years. Two words... Percy Harvin. Somehow overlooked in the shadow of Tim Tebow, I think Harvin was a big part of Tebow's success. Percy Harvin is one of the better pure football players in SEC history. He was part of 2 national championships and is now playing on Sunday. If I remember correctly he was Florida's leading rusher and receiver last year. He wasn't merely fast but fast and strong and with that special playmaking ability. Florida still has more talent than just about anybody in the country but they miss Harvin. Unfortunately for Kentucky they won't be missing him much Saturday. FLORIDA OVER KENTUCKY

The rest of the games...

GEORGIA OVER ARIZONA ST

LSU OVER MISS ST

TENNESSEE OVER OHIO

VANDY OVER RICE

Better Late...

Doh! I forgot about the Ole Miss/South Carolina game being played on Thursday. Tried to get the picks done today but too much going on. It is currently halftime of the game with South Carolina up 6-3. My pick for the game was Ole Miss, we will see how it turns out...

Give Gene Chizik a Lifetime Contract...

That is sure what it sounds like we need to do if you take a spin around any Auburn blog or web page. I mean I don't think I was excited as some of these people during the 2004 season, a real championship season.

Now before I get labeled a bammer or accused of not paying attention as Will Collier opines, let me state a few things. Here they are:

• I am glad Gene Chizik assembled a very good staff.


• I am glad Gene Chizik kept his mouth shut and went to work in the offseason unlike some other SEC coaches.


• I am glad Gene Chizik and his staff are seemingly taking recruiting very seriously and are thinking "out of the box" for different ways to get Auburn out there.


• I really like the fact Gene Chizik is putting a lot of emphasis on being an "Auburn man" and embracing Auburn's past.


• I am glad he hired Gus Malzahn and got out of his way and I love that we are currently one of the best offenses in the nation.


• I am glad we have started 3-0 against a decent opening slate of games in exciting offensive fashion.

Are we clear? Now with that being said, the collective Auburn community annointing Gene Chizik as the next big thing before playing one tough SEC team is simply ridiculous. I can see being optimistic and fired up but some of this stuff is simply unreadable (pick a link, any link to your right). Good gosh we sound like the Bama nation from 1997 through 2007. Call me crazy but no matter how exciting the start I would like to see us win a few tough SEC games (maybe one or two on the road) before giving Gene his lifetime contract. Also there is that nasty little matter of beating the team across the state sometime in the near future. Even Terry Bowden who started 10-0 said he was not an Auburn man till he beat Bama. Now, of course Bowden may not be an Auburn man but he was right about that being one of the qualifications of a great Auburn coach.

The same could be said of Chris Todd, how about we wait till the guy plays well on the road and actually helps us beat an upper-echelon SEC team before giving him the Davey O'Brien award. I mean I know most of the Auburn nation is now just assuming we are going to beat UT and Arkansas on the road and I can't wait to see it if that is true. However and I hate to be a buzzkill but UT's defense is much better than WVU and Arkansas' offense is better and won't make the dumb mistakes.

I mean good gosh you would think we had been down for years listening to the Auburn nation. I know the Tony Franklin debacle was horrible and Tuberville had his warts but good night people we had a winning record in the SEC every year from 2000 through 2007. We beat Bama six in a row and went 26-6 in the SEC from 2004 through 2007. I was definitely critical of Tub over the years but we were in the race for the SEC title almost the entire decade and that is the name of the game. I don't think we have been that win starved. In fact I think our expectations should be a bit higher than winning a nail biter over a Bill Stewart-coached WVU team.

However if anything good can come out of this over-the-top lovefest it would be some of these younger Auburn fans understanding why us older fans love Coach Dye. I have been pissed off and completely sickened to read what some of these losers (that say they are Auburn fans) say about Coach Dye on the various message boards. They would praise Tub and even Bowden and simply refer to Coach Dye as an "old cheater". The stupidity of trying to sum up Coach Dye like that is unbelievable.

Coach Dye definitely made some mistakes on and off the field and made another continuing mistake IMO continuing to talk to slimebaum. However, if some of these people think things were bad last year then they ought to try taking a trip back to 1980. Auburn had endured 5 years of Doug Barfield and one decent season out of those before crashing with an 0-6 SEC record in 1980. He also never beat Bama and during that time they won back-to-back national championships and then when their streak finally ended in 1980 our other main rival Georgia won one.

Coach Dye came into an absolute disaster and had us basically winning a national championship in 1983. That is absolutely miraculous. The hard work done to accomplish that feat coaching and recruiting is simply unbelievable. He then built the foundation for everything the program has done over the last 20 years. He expanded Jordan Hare, brought Bama to Auburn and won 4 SEC titles.

One thing Gene Chizik had right is when he said Coach Dye's players built this program (although one certain one in the AD office has tried hard to tear it down) but let's remember that Coach Dye and every other great coach and player in Auburn's history earned their accolades. Let's let Chizik try and earn his without going off the deep end after a trio of victories against La Tech, Miss St and West Virginia.

Week 3 Review

I think we now officially have "the monsoon game". I have been in Auburn for a lot of games but I did not mind watching this one from the comfortable dry confines of my house. I mean WOW. That was one for the books. Couple that with a game that started late and then took you from one extreme to another and I can’t imagine how tired all those people at the game were, I was completely exhausted at home.

Before delving into Auburn there were a few other surprises around the SEC. I picked Arkansas to win and blew that one but I did say "The real wildcard is Arkansas' defense. Have they improved from last year?" Uh I think we now know the answer to that question after they gave up 52 points to Georgia at home. The Auburn vs. Arkansas game in a few weeks should be a real track meet. Meanwhile how good is Georgia looking? They are 2-0 and have won two big SEC games in a row.

Elsewhere UT surprised everyone holding Florida to 23 points. I thought Kiffin the elder would do that for most of the game but I figured the floodgates would open at some point. If only UT had a QB... Another surprise was Miss St winning a tough road game at Vandy after a tough loss to Auburn last week. It won't get much press but I think that is big win for Dan Mullen and State. On the flip side, a year after getting to a bowl Vandy looks like they are back at the bottom of the SEC.

Now to Auburn/West Virginia... Where the heck do you start on this one? Let me try and stick with the regular format...

THE GOOD
I guess the first good thing I can say is that Auburn fought back from 14-0 and 21-10 deficits. It is a good thing that both the offense and defense (especially the defense) hung in there after bad to horrible starts. Of course let us couple that fact with it is a good thing that while West Virginia has playmakers they are not a well coached team in many ways. It is good they turned it over 6 times. Without those turnovers Auburn does not win this game. However it is a good thing that we were able to grab those turnovers and take advantage of them. It is a good thing our injured defenders kept getting back up and getting back into the game. Seeing Antonio Coleman and Jake Ricks down on the field is truly frightening.

Gus Malzahn came through again. I really like offenses that are not afraid to go to whoever can be used (and then come back to the main playmakers). It is just great stuff. Our offense started slow but Malzahn seemed to get things going by a big pass play to Eric Smith of all people. Even this morning when I looked at the receiving stats I wondered for a moment who “Smith” was? I love it. The guy had 3 catches for 67 yards. Great job Mr. Smith. We then came back to our main man Darvin Adams at the times when we really needed it. Six catches, 80 yards, 3 TDs… it has been awhile since we have had a WR step up like this.

With the running game shutdown for most of the game (till Tate started hammering away late in the game) you have to give props to Todd for 284 yards and 4 TDs. At times the guy makes great decisions and he gets the ball there but my gosh it is ugly. No doubt he made some big plays but I still do not think we have played a good defense yet. WVU did a good job taking away the run and getting some pressure on Todd but they are not a good defense. I still have serious doubts about Todd against a good SEC defense but luckily for us there does not appear to be too many of those (see Arkansas vs. Georgia).

For those who had started to maybe count UT as a win (including myself) we better look out. Monte Kiffin just held Florida and Tim Tebow to 23 points (aided by a big fumble but still a great job). I think the upcoming UT and Arkansas games are getting more and more interesting. In UT we will play a team with a great defense and not as much offense, in Arkansas we will play a great offense and not as much defense. Both on the road.

Back to WVU… As always Ben Tate ran hard. The guy is simply Mr. Dependable. He always shows up. As I stated last week, Miss St figured out McCalebb in the second half and WVU started where they left off. I hope Malzahn can figure out more ways to get him involved. It was good to see Trott back out there and get his first catches of the season. Kodi did a solid job at the “Wildcat”. He missed a big pass play but made a big one as well. Him being a threat passing will be huge down the road I think.

Finally, I don’t know how many times I have to say it… GET MARIO FANNIN MORE TOUCHES. Once again the guy is one of our biggest playmakers. He proved it again last night on the 82 yard run that got us going in the second half.

THE REALLY GOOD
Watching highlights of USC losing to a team that went 0-12 last season at least 80 times… (-:

THE BAD
Since both defenses gave up over 900+ yards of offense I think we can safely start with them. I know Auburn had to be careful in fall practice to not get anybody hurt but good grief I have not seen a much worse job at tackling and containing a QB than the first half. WVU was moving and scoring at will.

Is WVU’s offense that good? Is our defense that bad? It is probably a combination of both. WVU has some great playmakers in Noel Devine and Jock Sanders and a very athletic QB but the debate has already been raging over the Auburn blogs this week about the defense. I thought WBE did a good job on it. Basically to summarize, our defense was not great last year and the spread doesn’t help. However at this point as far as the spread is concerned it is a tradeoff we are willing to make.

This in no way though excuses the awful tackling and horrible angles our guys were taking last night. It does not excuse 10 of 15 third down conversions. We have to do better and we did in the second half. Four interceptions in one quarter against BCS competition no matter how they are gift wrapped is a good job by the defense. Now the question is which way the defense will go from here. Will we wear down and resemble last year’s unit or improve over the season. There is no way we will be a great unit statistically but we can be much better than last night. Unfortunately I think injuries could make the decision for us.

THE UGLY
Fortunately I can’t put Auburn here this week. I think WVU has this one all to themselves. I think they proved how you are always in the game against a spread team. I could see why Tub played so many games like he did watching them. More kudos to Malzahn for not letting us fall in that abyss yet.

As I said before WVU has some great playmakers but their coaching on the details of the game is awful. I mean their fifth year senior QB who looked so good at times played like an undisciplined high schooler just as much. I mean most of those interceptions were horrible horrible decisions. The fumble in the first quarter slowed their momentum and allows us to score a TD and get back into the game. Then four consecutive interceptions in the fourth quarter??? It does not get any uglier than that.