I am going to base this post off of quotes from Gus Malzahn's presser after game. It can be found here on al.com.
QUOTE #1: "Give Mississippi State credit... they are a very good football team."
Yes they are. I was actually more impressed with State's desire and team cohesion than their talent and execution. State wanted that game more than Auburn and they went after it with as Coach Dan Mullen put it "relentless effort on every snap" especially on defense. State definitely has some good football players but I thought quarterback Dak Prescott is a bit overrated.
He is a good quarterback but not great, at least not yet. He really made some bad throws yesterday that allowed Auburn a chance at getting back in the game. Both quarterbacks were around a 50% completion percentage and made critical turnovers. I thought the biggest difference in the game was State's defense in the red zone and so did Coach Malzahn...
QUOTE #2: "A big factor in the game was our red zone offense not scoring touchdowns."
This was the difference in the game. Auburn as Coach Malzahn stated "started out in a hole" and gave State two quick touchdowns off turnovers. However State did eventually give them back but Auburn was unable to capitalize. The State defense stood strong while Auburn's did not. Auburn had only two field goals plus a missed field goal to show for three trips to the red zone in the first half.
I think you have to give credit to State but I also thought the play calling was atrocious. Malzahn and Lashlee kept trying misdirections and all or nothing trick plays including some sort of pass option reverse to tight end C.J. Uzomah (???). This is not Monday morning quarterbacking, those were awful play calls against a good team. State was stacking the line, Auburn has very good wide receivers... everyone outside the Auburn coaches can do the math.
In that case you have to call a straight drop back pass, your quarterback then has to make a read and make a throw and then you let the chips fall where they may. The Auburn coaches refused to do that on Auburn's first few trips but when they finally did later Marshall threw a touchdown to Duke Williams. They should have done it much earlier, it was the right play no matter what, but of course I certainly cannot say I would be confident quarterback Nick Marshall would have completed it because...
QUOTE #3: "In the third quarter we got close but something would happen..."
Yeah something happened alright, Nick Marshall showed again he is just not that good a passer and he is not going to be. I will say the same thing here that I wrote after the San Jose State game...
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"Last year was very special and will always be. Nick Marshall was obviously a huge part of that and is a special player. However he is just not that good a passer and he is not going to be. Auburn with Marshall and Mason running behind Robinson and Prosch did something you just don't see much and that is run over people who are expecting you to run. Last season was the exception not the rule. The rule is you have to be balanced. Moreover on a team with wide receiving talent like Duke Williams, Sammie Coates and C.J. Uzomah you have to use those guys. All of them could be gone after this season.
Simply put, Auburn will not win a championship or beat Georgia and Bama (or State) running last year's offense. It is not going to happen. Auburn can beat both teams and win a championship by changing and running a more balanced offense behind Johnson and the devastating receiving weapons at his disposal. It is also much easier to bring Marshall in as a wildcat or change of pace than it is bringing Johnson in with Marshall as the starter.
It would be a gutsy decision but as the saying goes... "no guts no glory". Unfortunately head coach Gus Malzahn appears to have a Pat Dye-like stubborn streak and he is going to stick with Marshall till the bitter end. Jeremy Johnson will then take over next year but most likely without Duke Williams and Sammie Coates. Guys like them just do not come around very much. The best thing for Auburn is to make this change now with a bye week to prepare. I argued the other way coming into the season and have never been one who pines for the backup quarterback but Jeremy Johnson is clearly better with a much bigger upside."
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Nick Marshall is a playmaker and was the right guy last year to run a devastating front running rushing attack. He is not near as good trying to run a balanced offense. He is just not a consistent passer and he will never be. Auburn had two shots yesterday in the third quarter only eight points down with good field position and Marshall threw four bad passes in a row. Again he is just not that good a passer in a straight drop back situation. He is also too short and is killing Auburn with tipped balls. Marshall had a critical interception against KState and two more yesterday off tipped balls.
Auburn is a good rushing team, not a great one. The wide receivers are better than the running backs. The offensive line appears to be better pass blockers than run blockers. This is a team that is begging to be balanced!!! Auburn can still be a good offense but only fully including the passing game as much as the running team. That is the best thing for this Auburn team and Nick Marshall is not the best quarterback for an offense like that. Jeremy Johnson is, he is simply better and has proven it against an SEC team.
Of course Nick Marshall did throw one gorgeous pass yesterday to Sammie Coates that would have given Auburn first and goal on their first drive of the second half but was called back for "offensive pass interference" on what I think was the worst call I have ever seen in my life. Gus Malzahn would only say...
QUOTE #4: "It was a big play in the game... it was a big play in the game."
It certainly was. Both players had their hands up and Coates was using his hands to push away the State's defenders' hand that was on him (!!!). Also, the commentators on TV said the official from the other side of the field (50 yards away) threw the flag (!!!). Unbelievable, there was more contact on nearly every single other pass play in the game and you throw a flag on that play??? It is simply the worst call I have ever seen. It did not cost Auburn the game but it certainly helped make sure they had a much smaller chance at coming back.
People can point to numerous penalties not called on Auburn as well like defensive holding but some calls are bigger than others and the call on Coates amounted to an 80 yard penalty killing Auburn's best chance at a comeback. Also State was not called for one holding call by an offensive lineman after throwing the ball 34 times. I know Auburn was called for at least one drive-killing holding penalty. However I could live with the officiating as it is bad every week win or lose except for the call on Coates, that call was extraordinarily bad and had a huge impact on the game.
THE FINAL WORD
I think most people knew Auburn would not go through this season undefeated. However it is always tough to take when it actually happens and you can see all the things that might have helped. I think it is a little harder to take when you commit numerous dumb penalties and turnovers. That one yesterday was a gut punch, no doubt. Unfortunately for Auburn penalties and turnovers can be fixed but Nick Marshall cannot be made a consistent passer no matter how much the coaches tell us otherwise.
Auburn is going to play several other teams that will stop our running attack and make us pass. I think Ole Miss, Georgia and Bama all can do it. Marshall will probably have big games similar to LSU against South Carolina and Texas A&M but I see the exact same problems cropping up in the other big games. Now that does not mean we will lose them all but it makes it a lot harder to win when you cannot consistently throw the ball from the pocket.
As for State, the only negative to come from this weekend is the increasing chances that Dan Mullen will be the head coach of the Florida Gators before this year ends. I think he will stay if State is in the playoff but after this season or next I think he will be gone to Gainesville.
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