Week 11 Picks

AUBURN AT GEORGIA
Many Auburn fans will say this is the best game of the year and the best rivalry as well. Let me be clear here though, I said "best" not"biggest". Unlike our rivals on the west side of the state we do not try to pretend that the game with them is not the biggest of the year. It is and it will always be FOR BOTH SIDES. They continue to try to downplay the rivalry with Auburn as they believe this in someway makes them feel like they are better than us and that we are not an "equal". It is so played and pathetic that it does not bother me much anymore, it is just annoying. That reason and about a thousand more are why that rivalry is more of a hatefest for most fans and really not a lot of fun. Like Jay Coulter said on Track'em last week: " Watching the Iron Bowl is like passing a kidney stone. It only feels good at the end - and that's assuming you win." That about sums it up.

The flip side is the Auburn vs. Georgia game. Now like I stated in my last post the fan bases have become increasingly antagonistic toward each other. They are threatening to try and ruin a big piece of why this rivalry is so special and make it like any other rivalry but they have not succeeded yet. They have a long way to go. Again both school's greatest coaches have ties to the other school. There are hundreds of other connections. I don't think there are two big time BC schools that share a history like Auburn and Georgia. Both schools have broken the other school's heart repeatedly but the bitterness of the Bama rivalry is just not there. In 2002 I was completely sick that we let that game get away but after it was over I could be a little happy for Georgia that they won their first SEC championship since the early 80s. It is just a special game. Also as I wrote in my last post, not only is it the oldest rivalry in the south it is also the closest rivalry. The series record is nearly even and a few years ago the total points scored in the rivalry was dead even. While everyone in this state blathers on about Bama and Tennessee the stats show that rivalry is not as old or good as Auburn and Georgia.

This year looks to be more of the same. While neither school is competing for a conference championship there is a lot on the line Saturday night in Athens. Both schools are competing for a big time New Year's Day bowl and for an 8-4 season. Auburn is a lot closer to that than the Dawgs but this game is a must for both to attain that goal. Both schools end-of-season rivals are highly rated and look to be big favorites. Both schools need the win NOW. For Georgia, Mark Richt simply needs a big win over one his main rivals. A loss to Auburn and late to Georgia Tech combined with losses to Florida and Tennessee takes Georgia back to the Jim Donnan days. If the season ends that way Richt will be on the hot seat. As I said before, a win over Auburn looks more realistic than a win over Georgia Tech right now. The time is NOW.

The positives for Georgia is that they have some talent and are not as bad as they are being labelled plus the fact that a Mark Richt-coached Georgia team has never played bad against Auburn. Other than 2004 and that great Auburn team every single game has either been a Georgia blowout or gone down to the wire. Other than 2004 Auburn has only beat Richt twice, 24-17 in 2001 and 31-30 in 2005. Georgia grabbed nailbiters against Auburn in 2002 and last year and blew out Auburn in 2003, 2006 and 2007. Those are two big positives. Georgia is going to come out Saturday and play well. History seems to dictate that fact.

For Auburn the stakes maybe higher. An 8-4 season and a New Year's Day bowl would be a monumental achievement for this team and coaching staff considering the mess leftover after last year. A win over Bama will be a much bigger task so Auburn's best chance is against Georgia. It really is that big a difference between 7-5 and 8-4. At 7-5 all Auburn did different than I and most people predicted was beat Ole Miss at home and swapped a Tennessee win for a Kentucky loss. They would still make it to a bowl albeit a lesser one and that would be an improvement but beating Georgia would be a lot better. Going 8-4, stopping a 3 game slide and winning a big rivalry game on the road against Georgia and playing on New Year's Day would be much better.

To the game itself... I see both offenses finding cracks in the other defenses. Auburn's defense has improved with the return of Antoine Carter but a depleted linebacking corps and secondary leaves it vulnerable. Auburn has given up big plays every game and I expect more against Georgia. As has been WELL documented here at STR, the Auburn offense is completely dependent on Chris Todd being able to hit some shots downfield. You would think Auburn would score big against Georgia but both Arkansas and Kentucky had terribly rated defenses and were able to stop Auburn. It is up to Todd to complete those shots downfield. Ben Tate and the whole offense will open up if he does.

I think these teams are extemely close talent-wise. However I think Auburn has the better overall offense especially the running game and I think Auburn has the better defensive line. I think this will be another nailbiter and I have consistently picked against Auburn in all the big SEC games this year but for the first time I will go against the grain and go with...
AUBURN OVER GEORGIA

Last week I will say I went 3-0 with the easy games that were on the schedule against BCS competition to go 32-8 for the season in games between BCS competition. Here is the rest of the SEC picks:

OLE MISS OVER TENNESSEE... everyone is going with Tennessee in this one and that is usually when Houston Nutt comes out of nowhere to get a big win.

KENTUCKY OVER VANDY... Rich Brooks showed he could still coach against Auburn and I think Kentucky has a few more playmakers than Vandy.

FLORIDA OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... Florida will probably be slowed down but I don't think South Carolina has the horses to finish it off.

BAMA OVER MISS ST... Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs showing signs of life but Bama like Florida just has too much talent.

Elsewhere LSU will beat La Tech and Arkansas will beat Troy.

Week 10 Review

The second shot at the 11th, all of the 12th, and the tee shot at the 13th hole at Augusta are nicknamed "Amen Corner."

Yes we are here at that fabled time of year for an Auburn fan, Amen Corner. Of course to be exact when Pat Dye borrowed that term to describe Auburn's late season schedule he was including former regular SEC rival Florida along with Georgia and Bama. Since the SEC went to divisions Auburn's "Amen Corner" has shrunk to just Georgia and Bama. However that is more than enough with a three game losing streak to Georgia and Bama about to bring their second consecutive undefeated regular season record into the game.

However let us take a quick look at this weekend first... the weekend got off to a great start when the nation's #1 running back (according to ESPN), Michael Dyer, committed to Auburn. It has definitely been awhile since Auburn brought in a recruit as highly ranked as Dyer. Of course that commitment is worth as much as my "picks" last week till Signing Day.

To the game... as noted elsewhere it was just a beautiful day on the plains (one of the few this season on gameday). My family and I were settled in for my youngest son and daughter's first Auburn game... and then they both start completely melting down. It was nap time and they were plenty tired from the walk to the stadium and not getting a good nights sleep the day before. So... thank goodness we were playing Furman.

THE GOOD

It was nice to see us completely dominate an outmanned opponent offensively and defensively and get it over with by halftime. As Will notes that did not happen last year and it did not happen several times over the last few years of the Tuberville era. Everyone is raving about our bloated QB stats but again I give just as much credit to the line as both quarterbacks had five minutes to throw each time and there were wide open receivers all over the field. Our offensive line is really playing well and I hope it carries over to this week.

THE BAD

Not much bad about games like this unless you get somebody hurt and we did but only one I know about. Travante Stallworth is probably out for the season with a knee or ankle injury. It should not be a big impact but it is about the worst thing that happened Saturday.

THE UGLY

As I said above there was not much bad or ugly about this game but there is certainly one thing. My gosh WE HAVE THE WORST PUNT RETURN GAME I HAVE SEEN IN AUBURN HISTORY. Mr. Louis giftwrapped Furman's first touchdown by trying to field a punt over his shoulder inside the ten yard line (???!!!???). I mean that is punt return 101! Let it go! No pulled punches here, it is completely ridiculous for our punt return team to be this bad this late in the season. As I have continually said, if we would have stuck with Mario Fannin the entire year I think this would be a strength instead of a glaring weakness. Instead everytime one of these guys makes a mistake we jerk him and go to the next guy. Fannin has a lot more game experience than any of these other guys and is a game changing playmaker. We were dumb not to stick with him.

Now back to Amen Corner. It is Georgia week. Georgia is just a special game. Not only is it the oldest rivalry in the south it is also the closest rivalry. The series record is nearly even and a few years ago the total points scored in the rivalry was dead even. While everyone in this state blathers on about Bama and Tennessee the stats show that rivalry is not as old or good as Auburn and Georgia. Also while the rivalry as turned nastier over the years it is still nowhere near the hate-fest that Bama is. It is a much "friendlier" rivalry and the schools are so connected since two of their greatest coaches were alumni of the opposite school in Vince Dooley and Pat Dye. There have been many other connections beside that as well.

I mentioned that this weekend was my youngest son's first Auburn game. My first Auburn game was the 1978 Auburn vs. Georgia game. It was very memorable as it was one of the last times Auburn came out in the ORANGE jerseys. I remember even as a nine year old kid thinking we looked like Tennessee. So my first game was a Mark Richt-like jersey switch. I think Barfield tried it a couple of times the next year before they retired them for good. The game was also memorable as it ended in a 22-22 tie. My dad always gives me a hard time as I kept bothering him to get me a coke and when we went and got it Joe Cribbs scored a long touchdown.

There have been so many more special Georgia games over the years that it would be hard to list them. Both our Heisman winners clinched the award against Georgia. In most of our biggest seasons the Georgia game was usually a bit bigger or better game than the Bama game. The rest of the time it is usually a great game as well. Everyone continues to pile on last year's Auburn team but they played a great game against Georgia and were very close to winning that game. Unfortunately everyone is piling on this years Georgia team and I think they are better than that. It is looking like it should be another great game in a series full of them.

Ah, it is time for Amen Corner and with apologies to WBE this will not be remembered as a good season without at least one win in these next two games. War Eagle and Burn the Bulldogs.

Week 10 Picks

Er oops... No late posts... No excuses... Just no picks. Late at work on Wednesday, late at our last soccer practice of the fall on Thursday and out of town early on Friday for a trip to the zoo and then over to Auburn for the game yesterday (is this Facebook or a blog???). It just didn't happen this week. Although come on, were any of these games a tough pick? I mean we all knew LSU had a chance at Bama but who was going to pick against Bama at home (with SEC refs)? Nobody. Elsewhere it pretty much went like you would think even South Carolina heading toward their third late season plunge in a row under Steve Spurrier. I think the "fat lady" is starting to warm up in Columbia. Week 10 Review upcoming...

Week 9 Review

Auburn 33 Ole Miss 20
THE GOOD
Wow, that was unexpected. While all the focus was on the quarterback and the defensive coaching everyone kind of forgot about our lines. I think we all assumed they were not capable of a good game especially against a team like Ole Miss who was supposed to at least have a very good defensive line. They certainly proved that not to be true. The Auburn offensive and defensive lines absolutely dominated Ole Miss. Well the offensive line did it till the end of the third quarter however that was enough. Ole Miss routinely sent five to seven players after Todd in the first half and the Auburn offensive line absolutely stonewalled them. This enabled even Chris Todd to complete some long awaited DOWN FIELD passes. This in-turn opened up the running game and the short passing game. It is amazing how that works.

I know a couple of those times we max-protected with the extra players but the bulk of the blocking still falls on the offensive line. I still think the offensive line did a decent job against LSU but as documented Chris Todd needs extra time to make decisions and wind up for any deep passes. Yesterday the offensive line gave him the time he needed and the wide receivers especially Terrell Zachary also helped out and again this all opened up the running game. Ben Tate took it from there putting up another 144 yards and surpassed 1000 yards on the season. I believe this is the first time we have had an 1000 yard rusher since Kenny Irons did it in 2005 (the last time we had a down field passing game).

I think no matter what happens Tate is our offensive MVP for the season and I am extremely happy for him. He has been the one constant on offense over the last four years. He has toiled and struggled and run hard week in and week out with defenses completely stacked against him and no great offensive lines. Along with our QB play falling off it was no surprise that our running game fell off after Marcus McNeil, one of the best ever on the plains, left after the 2005 season. Tate kept running hard through good times and bad and even though he had to always split time till this season. This year they were finally smart enough to make him the horse and he has delivered.

It was all good yesterday too as our defensive line and especially Antonio Coleman came out of NOWHERE and absolutely mauled Ole Miss. Now it wasn't for the whole game or perfect but like the offense it was good enough. I was yelling at them (to put it mildly) early on that first drive when Ole Miss was opening up lines you could drive a truck through. They also gave up the long run to McCluster (right after a kickoff return for a TD) but other than that it was all Auburn. Coleman absolutely abused the Ole Miss left tackle and it is no coincidence that this is all occurring as Antoine Carter is getting healthy and taking some of the attention away from Coleman. This forced quarterback Jevan Snead to make one bad throw after another and have one of his worst days as a college QB.

THE BAD
This would be the Ole Miss game plan and prep. Ah how nice it felt to finally do to Houston Nutt what he has done to Auburn so many times. How many times have we been the big favorite against his team only to be absolutely dominated in the trenches??? This time he was the big favorite and it was Auburn dominating in the trenches on the way to a convincing win. I hope you enjoyed that trip home to Oxford Houston.

THE UGLY
This would be the Zac Etheridge injury. Once I saw the replay I was seriously worried about him. That would be why you don't lead with your helmet into a pile. Etheridge did right into Antonio Coleman and it looked ugly. I was really starting to worry when Etheridge was not initially giving the "thumbs up" signal on his way out. He finally did and I think everyone breathed a sigh of relief. It definitely puts things into perspective when you see the guy prostrate on the field with both medical crews surrounding him and his teammates kneeling in prayer beside them. I sure hope Etheridge will make a full recovery and I also hope that Chizik will give the Auburn family real information on this injury. This case is not about being in control and not giving out information.

Elsewhere around the SEC...
The Gators returned to form this week mauling Georgia and showing a spark on offense while continuing to make big plays on defense. The countdown marches on toward the clash of the titans in Atlanta between Bama and Florida. Bama rested up for LSU and LSU crushed Tulane 42-0. Tennessee continued to show their resilience as they won big against South Carolina after a tough loss to Bama last week. They did the same thing against Georgia after losing a tough one to Auburn. When you also see Miss St go on the road and get a big win against Kentucky you have to give some accolades to all of the SEC's new coaches. Chizik, Kiffin and Mullen all seem to have their teams still believing and still fighting hard.

Week 9 Picks

Yep, another week of picks and another late post by yours truly. I am probably going to have to do a more abbreviated version of the picks each week. Life, work and three kids make it tough at times to get a good long post out. Back in the day doing really good analytical picks was my thing but now there are obviously a LOT more people doing it with a LOT more time on their hands than I do. My main focus for this blog is commentary anyway regardless of it's perceived worth. For really good Auburn game previews you can go to WarBlogEagle or Track'em. However I still like to weigh in on the games each week. Last week I went 5-0 in games against BCS competition to go 29-8 for the season.

Ole Miss at Auburn - "The Navy Nightmare"
Yes it is finally here, "The Navy Nightmare" as dubbed by our beloved current AD Jay Jacobs. It should be quite a day on the plains. Three bad games in a row, the good ol' 11:30 kickoff and the chance of rain at 100%. I want to give some big props to the Auburn fans who travel a long way for this one. This one is pretty easy to break down. I can't really think of any reason Auburn would have a chance in this game except one. The one chance is this is Ole Miss. They have a pretty good football team but I don't think this would be an upset for the ages.

Other than that though it doesn't look too good. I think I have covered the Chris Todd factor the last two weeks. Once again, if he can get lucky and hit a few down field passes, our offense will show some life. If he does not then we will look like the last 3 weeks. Ole Miss has a pretty good defense so I don't think we will run all over them. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss has looked better in recent weeks with Dexter McCluster stepping to the forefront. Jevan Snead has also played better of late. Also for those paying attention the Auburn game is when Ole Miss really caught fire last year (and for the record Kodi Burns had 300 yards passing against the Rebels last year). I expect the Auburn defense to play hard and look good at times but unfortunately I also expect them to give up some big plays.

There is no way around it that I see... OLE MISS OVER AUBURN

Georgia at Florida (in Jacksonville, FL)
Once a season you have to go WAY out on a limb and pick the upset of the year. I don't think Tim Tebow will let it happen but Florida has looked ripe for an upset and barely avoided one for weeks. Meanwhile, everyone has completely given up on Georgia. They definitely have their warts but they still have a lot of good players on both sides of the ball and they have played a tough schedule. It is a long shot (and given the way Florida will get a couple of absolutely gift calls it is probably even longer) but I will go with the upset today...
GEORGIA OVER FLORIDA

Elsewhere I will go with...
TENNESSEE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
MISS ST OVER KENTUCKY
GEORGIA TECH OVER VANDY
LSU OVER TULANE
ARKANSAS OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN

BAMA IS OPEN THIS WEEK

Week 8 Review - HOPELESS

Complete utter hopelessness. That is pretty much where I am at. First, Bama and their legion of new bandwagon fans are just about to get their hearts ripped out and their season completely destroyed and freaking Tennessee can't get a stupid field goal in the air. That would have made this whole awful Auburn season a little easier to take. I mean for Tennessee to be able to almost get pass Bama and another crew of SEC officials obviously trying to make sure Bama and Florida stay undefeated was unbelievable. Great Kiffin quote today on that after he is scolded by the SEC again...

"Kiffin also said he decided to let the clock run down instead of trying to run another play before the kick because he was concerned about the officiating.
"You run another play and you throw an interception or they throw another flag on us -- I wasn't going to let the refs lose the game for us there and some magical flag appear..."

So good. Elsewhere I think you have to tip your cap to Miss State coach Dan Mullen for the job he is doing over there. State is coming to play every game. I mean you are really seeing a difference in this team after the Auburn game. Right now though I would pick State in a rematch. After all the hubbub over Gene Chizik and Lane Kiffin, I think Dan Mullen maybe doing the best job although Kiffin is rising and Chizik is falling.

That of course leads us to the absolute train wreck that occurred on the bayou on Saturday night. I am not sure where to go this week. I don't know how many times I can say the same thing. I see everyone trying to spread the blame but COME ON. My gosh when you have 16 yards passing at halftime and 47 for the game YOU HAVE A QB PROBLEM. Yes Malzahn is not doing a great job, yes our inexperienced wide receivers are having a hard time getting open, yes our offensive line is not exactly a wall BUT AGAIN WHEN YOU HAVE 16 YARDS PASSING AT HALFTIME AND 47 FOR THE GAME THEN YOU THE QB ARE THE PROBLEM.

For the millionth time... CHRIS TODD SUCKS. CHRIS TODD SUCKED AT TEXAS TECH, CHRIS TODD SUCKED IN JUCO, CHRIS TODD SUCKED LAST YEAR AND FINALLY CHRIS TODD HAS SUCKED THIS YEAR AGAINST ANY DECENT DEFENSE (I am going to assume the entire Tennessee defense was out drinking late for any success he had against them). WHY IN THE WORLD HAS THIS GUY STARTED THE MAJORITY OF AUBURN'S GAMES THE LAST TWO YEARS???!!!???

I started this blog early in August FOR THIS VERY REASON:

"What has brought me out of retirement? Well I must first say that the proliferation of so many blogs has had me stirred up for awhile but what finally pushed me over the edge is all of the sunshine pumpers. I could barely take it during the Tuberville years but the current deification of Gene Chizik and Chris Todd is simply more than I can take...".

THIS BLOGGER DID NOT LOSE HIS OBJECTIVITY THIS SEASON LIKE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE ELSE I READ DID. Just look at the posts here. I mean the only the only time I grudgingly said I was a little wrong about Todd was after the Tennessee game. I thought it was completely ridiculous to go off the deep end on this team when we had not played any of the better SEC teams. So far the only difference between this year and last is more offense against the lesser teams and beating West Viriginia (and do you think we would have beat them with Pat White?). The jig is up now and the offense looks just like last year against the better SEC teams.

Gene Chizik said this about the QB situation last night: ""We'll look at everything," Chizik said when asked about Todd. " (Possibly replacing Todd) is the natural question everybody is going to raise. "It was the whole offensive (unit), whether it was protection, running the football, throwing the football." Chizik also pointed to the Tigers' 42 yards in the first half and said, "You can't pin that on one guy. We're going to re-evaluate everything."

Uh sorry coach but you can most certainly pin that on one guy. Todd had time enough to make the play on most of those sacks. He threw an interception and fumbled. He is indecisive and slow. Our whole offensive game plans for most of the season were obviously made trying to protect him. It is so ridiculous. Either you can do the job or not. ONCE AGAIN JUST LIKE EVERY SINGLE FREAKING DAY SINCE HE CAME TO AUBURN YOU WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO CONVINCE ME ONE OF THE OTHER GUYS COULD NOT DO BETTER THAN THIS. But of course just like Kodi last year that guy won't get all the preseason work and all the work against the easier teams as Todd has already wasted that.

To top that quote off we get the word late Sunday that Chizik has declared that Todd will be the starter this week against Ole Miss (??????!!!!!!???????) This is a good time to say that this is a rant on my frustration with Chris Todd's play on the football field. It is also a good time to say it is not his fault that he is out there. By all accounts he is a nice guy and so on. IT IS THE FAULT OF OUR COACHES AND THEIR EGOS THAT HE IS OUT THERE. A friend of mine said it better than me so let me quote him:

"I tell you dude, this is going to be just like it was with Franklin. these guys are either too stubborn to admit they were wrong by making a change or they're afraid that the result of making a change would complicate their future plans ('09 and '10). in other words, its more about self-interests than the best interest of the team. there is just no other explanation for naming Todd the starter the afternoon after.... its appears that Todd could literally take the snap, hand the ball to a defender and block for the guy down field as he races towards the end zone and these stubborn jack-a$$es would refuse to make a change."

Absolutely dead on right. I think this IS a major factor in our coaches' decision making. All I can say is shame on them and say that doing stuff like that will come back to haunt you. I think there is evidence to support this accusation in the game itself. It was obvious after the first possession of the second half that the coaches were not coming back out to seriously win the game. We were mostly running the ball. It went downhill after that and as the 3rd quarter was ending LSU went up 31-3. It was obviously over and even if Todd was a great starter it would have been time to let the backup get in WAY BEFORE only two minutes were left in the game. However our coaches would not put Caudle in. What if he looked good for an entire quarter? That would mess up their plans and take the control for a decision out of their hands. Crazy you say? I don't think so. It is obviously a factor when a QB lays three big eggs in a row and a staff will not even take a look at the next guy. I use the "three strike" rule a lot in life and our coaches should most certainly use it here. STRIKE THREE CHRIS TODD SHOULD BE OUT!!!

This does not bode well for Chizik and Malzahn. A lot of this season is short term and as painful and frustrating as it is it will not determine this coaching staff's long term fate. As told to us ad nauseum many great coaches have a tough first year. I would also say there are a lot of bad coaches that have a tough first year and it doesn't get much better after that as well. We can go 6-6 and it will not effect us long term. However if these coaches stick with Chris Todd and get absolutely embarrassed like Saturday in our final three SEC games then YES I think that could hurt recruiting and hurt this staff long term.

I just do not understand it. A QB IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION ON THE FIELD. A good team must have a QB who can throw down the field. AGAIN, it does not appear Todd can do that consistently or hardly at all. Even with our early season success he was not throwing down field that much. Good night EVEN CHIZIK is saying it this week! Malzahn (and the entire Auburn nation) said it last week. I think everyone in the world knows we can't throw down field at this point yet he is still the starter!!!???!!!. Here is a Chizik's quote and then one from Will Collier:

"Biggest difference in offense right now in Chizik's estimation: down field passing game. "Sheer numbers will tell you that's been an area the last couple weeks that we certainly need to improve on, whatever we need to do," he said." (REALLY COACH???????? YET TODD IS STILL YOUR GUY???)

"Chris Todd was either injured against Tennessee (and I strongly suspect that to be the case), or he's simply lost his mojo. Either way, Todd can no longer make the throws he was nailing for the first four and a half games, and by now everybody Auburn plays knows it. With the long threat gone, defenses can just stuff the run early and tee off on Todd late. All the misdirection in the world doesn't do you any good when the defense knows you're limited to the first 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. The safeties can just stay home and the defensive line can pin its ears back and go after you."

There you have it. Again, the rest of the offense needs to play better and yes our defense is dreadful but does it really matter if we do not have a QB? Yet with all that said, we are going to send Todd out for strike FOUR this Saturday. That leads me to feel COMPLETELY HOPELESS.

Week 8 Picks

I guess I would have been fired in the actual newspaper business. I had just about finished my picks and everything got crazy on Friday night and the fam had to head to B'ham for a soccer doubleheader on Saturday and I FORGOT to publish this post... So for posterity here were my picks on the games played yesterday. All I can do is promise that these were the picks I made before they were played and were any of these really hard picks? Last week I went 3-1 in games against BCS competition and am now at 24-8 overall.

Auburn at LSU

As Jay at Track'em points out there has not been much buildup to this year's game. As he says both fanbases are a bit down and not too confident in their teams.Where do you start with this one? I guess we can start with the offenses. For my take on Auburn's offense see the last two previous posts. Basically, Chris Todd has to hit a few passes down the field to open up things for Auburn. Otherwise it will be another long night. Auburn's success on offense as it does with most spread teams completely depends on Chris Todd making plays. It is as simple as that.

Obviously the OL has to play half decent and the receivers have to catch but otherwise it is on Todd. One thing Auburn can count on is the SEC's leading rusher Ben Tate will run hard. I have also done quite a bit on LSU's offense in my last two posts. They basically have to lessen QB Jordan Jefferson's role and get their big strong running backs into the game. LSU's defense which was surprisingly bad at the first of the season has been better the last two weeks again Georgia and Florida. It is obviously taking some time for LSU to adjust to defensive coordinator John Chavis' approach. Fortunately for them and him Arkansas and Kentucky have given them the blueprint on how to defend Auburn and LSU has better talent to execute that plan.

Meanwhile Auburn kicked another player, backup CB Harry Adams, off the team leaving Auburn's secondary looking like their linebacker corps.The Auburn defense doesn't have a whole lot of great players, no depth and have not played well. Tommy Tuberville and his "legendary laziness" is too blame for the first two things while Gene Chizik and Ted Roof are to blame for the last one. So it is the underperforming LSU offense vs. the underperforming Auburn defense.

The Auburn nation has really tried to rally this week. However the facts are cold and hard. I really can't find any reasons to pick Auburn in this game. Here is what we are looking at:

1. The LSU offense has underperformed however they have a lot of goodplayers and can breakout. The same cannot be said of the Auburn defense.

2. The Auburn offense should be better than last week but LSU has that blueprint from the last two weeks and again a lot of good players.

3. LSU has had a week off to rest and get ready for this game.

4. LSU is at home at night. While that whole deal is much overrated ithas been true more times than not against Auburn. Unfortunately it looks like the angst on the plains will increase afterthis one...

LSU OVER AUBURN

Elsewhere...

BAMA OVER TENNESSEE

FLORIDA OVER MISS ST

OLE MISS OVER ARKANSAS

SOUTH CAROLINA OVER VANDY

KENTUCKY OVER LA MONROE

GEORGIA IS OPEN.